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  1. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  2. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  3. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  4. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  5. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  6. 1 point
    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  7. 1 point
    Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  8. 1 point
    Updated investor presentation out: http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/48509dd8-8e15-4d99-90f8-c22fa89905f8 Anything interesting you guys? I noticed they've started playing with quasi-mono. But why?
  9. 1 point
    Hmmm, Q4 DQ had 61% production being mono. In Q1 they are forecasting 78% of their production will be mono. To me that sounds like the Multi ASP drop will not impact them significantly for now. As you can see from their transcript below they indicate that Mono would not drop much due to the production costs of most online. In fact they were suggesting due to ratios of mono vs multi poly and much better pricing on Mono and more production Q1 should be improved margins. As for the price tightening, when everyone refines and moves from junk poly to mono quality, then the Si price for Poly wafer production will rebound as the glut will be less. That price rebound for poly would create a narrowing in the price gap. That suggests that that while Mono may decline some, it will not necessarily decline much since the Mono wafers is ramping much faster this year in wafer productions vs last year. Now to add to that DQ, is suggesting they will reduce cash costs to $6.0/KG. That is close to 20% from the Q4 producton costs, This means that they can easily maintain profitability with handle the price dropping 20% from Q4 levels to $~8/KG . When you recognize they will have 2x the capacity and $6/Kg cost, the spread and margins can be narrower and they can make more money than now come 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "For example, I can say an example, in Q4, our monosilicon supply is around 61%. So, if you look our gross margin, our monosilicon price ASP is around like $10 and the multi is around $6.30 or whatever. Our ASP is around like renminbi is around like – US dollar maybe around like $9.50. So, we see in Q1, we will get more improved our gross margin, the reason because first of all, the monosilicon percentage will increase to around 77%, 78%,"
  10. 1 point
    I've lost count of how many times they have lied to investors. I buy their audited financial statements but not much more than that. That's just me.
  11. 1 point
    Exactly, Explo. CN solars should be bought when everyone is selling them (or better yet sold alredy) and sold when everyone is buying them (or better yet bought already), not the other way around. I.E.:JKS should have been bought last quarter of last year at $8-9 and sold earlier this month once it hit $20 (none can pick absolute top and bottom); just like CSIQ should have been bought for much of last half of last year at $12-13 and sold this month in $22-23. I believe we won't see irrational move in solar circa 2009/10 and 2012/13 again. So double is good enough, triple is great. Just do no think CSIQ will get to $40 (without yieldco anticipation of 2014) nor JKS will hit $30+ without Power. Those days are done. Possibility of high margins return is hard to see when all legacy projects are gone and only low margin businesses remain where volume will be everything. Brian Lee asked JKS on Friday where are they going to get $500M without an equity raise they need to expend to 15GW. I did not hear a clear answer from Jinko's side, cause there isn't.
  12. 1 point
    PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  13. 1 point
    Second half recovery! Everybody's doing it. It's all the rage. (MU, NVDA, AMD).. why not the solar stocks too?
  14. 1 point
    They are sold out into 2021 at fixed prices. Nothing can change their top line in 2020, not even the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs.
  15. 1 point
    OMG looks like I won on estimize you guys. I was closest on EPS with $1.30. Philip Shen had $0.65 and Colin Rash $0.40.
  16. 1 point
    So they wrote off the inventory last couple Q's and now they sell it and claim revenue with great margins. What a scam. I thought that would be put under other income and not revenues.
  17. 1 point
    Well the transcript is out and Philip Shen got us the answers to our questions. The extra revenue was from Chonqing inventory sell-off of non-poly crap like ingots and poly-blocks. They seemed to have sold off everything so 2019 will be clean. And the subsidies are basically tax returns which will continue to varying degrees over the next years always in Q4. They also give some good info on production mix and prices which will help to pinpoint EPS over the next quarters I think: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  18. 1 point
    What confuses me is they had added an additional revenue of around $6M based on poly asp and volumes. I am not certain where this comes from? Written off wafers? This other income amounted to around $4.5M profits or 60% gross margins. This is looking at revenues and gross profits less the revenue generated from Poly sales of 7030 and their claimed costs.
  19. 1 point
    JKS booked out until H2 and expanding capacity 10-20%: https://menafn.com/1098223156/China-plans-to-sustain-solar-growth-with-its-new-policy
  20. 1 point
    My estimize numbers are 0.16 and 75. Though it is highly possible that DQ uses the lousy 2018 4Q to clean up all the loose ends and write down the kitchen sink. If there is value in that inventory, etc. they just sell it and reconcile on the positive side for 1Q. So Klothhilde could be the winner here with a negative 4Q number. I agree with a turn up in the 2Q and continuous improvements throughout the year.
  21. 1 point
    I think they have positive earnings of a couple pennies before 1 timers I expect a $1.85 spread on cost to ASP. I am using a lower cost and volume than yours Gross comes in around $12.6M My Opex and Int are slightly higher at $12.2M Q4 though is not relevant. 2019 costs and guidance are. I expect Q1 to be the low for the year in earnings in the low double digits and increasing from there. I expect Q1 costs to be around $7.50 I expect costs to decline slightly from there with production ramps and optimization The second half of 2019 should be stronger as that is were the forecast in volume increases over the first half. This should lead to a slight rise in ASP int he second half even with the new capacity. From this I reasonably expect a full year profit of North of $2 a share. Disclosure: I do not own DQ.
  22. 1 point
    OMG I just noticed that I already had a Q4 estimate back in November. Here's my update. I've just posted in on estimize. OMG I'm the only one forecasting a loss. It's so exciting to be competing against WS names like Philip Shen. Wish me luck you guys! Volume sold: 7200T ASP: $9.8/kg cost: $8.7/kg Gross: $8.3M OPEX&NI: $11.2M EPS: -$0.18 before adjustments P.D. anybody else have an estimate?
  23. 1 point
    I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  24. 1 point
    Ah, I see, you are narrowly looking at the word Green New Deal and suggesting it is strictly power. Green means many things. Like Getting Chemicals our of building materials. Getting harmful chemicals out of the ground and water. Having healthy natural foods that are not processed or altered (GMO) or hormone injected being fed to to us. Medicines that are consumed and then pissed into the water systems polluting the water. Broaden your scope and this New Deal lays out a template of objectives that are good goals to want to achieve.
  25. 1 point
    As for the word affordable. My it is a nasty word if all you care about is massive unfettered capitalism. The word is listed 4 times (D) building or upgrading to energy-efficient, distributed, and “smart” power grids, and ensuring affordable access to electricity Comment: Affordable sounds so nasty when trying to build something that is useful and futuristic. If they only did that with Nuclear Power plants Georgia and South Carolina would have avoided a $20Billion catastrophe that is no longer able to be built but citisens are paying for. (ii) clean, affordable, and accessible public transit; Comment: sounds reasonable to want affordable public transit that is clean. That is unless you don't use public transit that might get you from your hotel to your airport, aroud your airport, around densely populated areas etc. But I guess affordable is a hated word by unfettered capitalists. (ii) affordable, safe, and adequate housing; What affordable safe housing in a green new deal? No more tens of thousands of trailers passed out by our government that poisoned and made sick those displaced by Hurricane Katrina? Or maybe we should just let Lumber Liquidators knwoingly have their suppliers make flooring with illegal chemicals and mark them as legal just so they undercut their competitors by 15%. How about try finding materials that are safe and affordable not like lead based products , asbestos based products, products made from Oil etc. Jeesh what a terrible idea and the use of the word affordable. (iv) clean water, clean air, healthy and affordable food, and access to nature. What healthy and affordable food? Maybe only the rich should be able to buy healthy food. Or maybe food should not be tried to be made affordable. Personally I am getting sick and tired of buying $20 a pound T-Bone steaks that I used to by for $3 a pound.
  26. 1 point
    Why are you calling First Solar a POS? It seems you have transferred your anger at a certain poster onto the company. The outright hostility some folks here have for FSLR is rather comical. When comparing First Solar and Canadian Solar you really need to go by enterprise value as the debt (and lack of debt) really changes the picture. First Solar has an EV of $3.2B. Canadian Solar is at $2.85B. Redoing forward earnings based on EV leaves FSLR at 13 and CSIQ over 14. Both companies seem to be similarly priced right now. Then consider that First Solar could have gone all SunPower and considered the ramp and startup costs as a Non-GAAP expense. Doing so would have put EPS at around $4. In addition, EPS won't tell the whole picture because in a year or two cash flow will go up dramatically as the new S6 factories start to depreciate. Lastly, FSLR has these earnings based on 17% efficiency panels. Considering that 3 years ago the company created a cell with 22.1% efficiency, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to think the company can get module efficiency over 20% in the next three years. Doing so would have a dramatic impact on cost per watt and earnings. Solar has gotten to the point where it has gotten cheaper than the operating cost of coal unsubsidized. That means it should really take off soon. Plus, the mad rush to drive prices down should lessen.
  27. 1 point
    You have not only the trade war, but the unwinding of the ITC tax credits that will come creating pricing pressures. This year the ITC is 30% tax credit , next years projects qualify for 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The ITC falls to 10% for commercial and grid after 2021. As the S6 ramps, the projects costs are going to have to drop 25% over the next 3 years. This will be heavily felt in the module ASP as it is some 30-40% of the cost to build in the U.S.
  28. 1 point
    Who says I don't believe the outlook is shiny? Just because I warn against investing in some solar companies doesn't mean I don't believe in solar. In fact I think I'm one of the fiercest believers in solar here.
  29. 1 point
    Europe bounces back in 2018, and 2019 will be bigger. https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1707217/eu-solar-bounces-back-in-2018-led-by-german-and-dutch-push?utm_source=Recharge+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c4c2e4fe31-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_21_09_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8680971c0c-c4c2e4fe31-19444157
  30. 1 point
    Your word in God's ear! That would pretty much restore my portfolio to previous highs....
  31. 1 point
    Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  32. 1 point
    Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/
  33. 1 point
    I'll add that the 13Fs that have been trickling in for FSLR have been very sexy. Some serious purchases last quarter on the weakness.
  34. 1 point
    That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today. The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal" This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity. These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at $0.26. That is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml Definition of Parity online “The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.” Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%. Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online. That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
  35. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  36. 1 point
    Nah, not bitter at all. In fact I've been rather excited and bullish since Christmas, having dug out of my CSIQ hole and made a handsome profit at the same time. It's just the last time we heard from you, DQ was going to $100 or something and it promptly went to $20. So you're a bit of a contrarian indicator. Longer term, I agree though and ain't going anywhere... party is just starting.
  37. 1 point
    I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years. I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future. Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.
  38. 1 point
    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  39. 1 point
    More on PG&E with commentary on the solar aspect as well as those companies most affected... https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/01/27/pge-gets-a-break-and-opportunity-is-still-knocking/#3767dfe56d10
  40. 1 point
    My second recommendation is Sangamo Therapeutics, SGMO. By Feb 7, the company will have a delivery of the results in MPS II and MPS I. They are first in the world to edit the human genome in vivo. MPS II results were released in September where the application reduced negative byproduct GAGs. In Feb expectation is to confirm that IDS enzyme is produced therefore GAGs are reduced by patients' production of IDS, a deficit of the enzyme is a sole root-cause of MPS II disease. The stock volatility may be very high. However, for those with risk acceptance, now and next 7 trading days from today, the stock could move 10 to 15%. If something fails a 20 to 30% may be experienced on Feb 7. There are more stories to this company. If I will see that Feb 7 is validated I will offer a bigger summary. Proceed at your own risk and good luck.
  41. 1 point
    Defying gravity? Seem to take of easily these days.
  42. 1 point
    SWEET!!!! So prices are expected to rise, while everyone keeps cutting costs. Means margins will inflate. And with over 100 GW being installed worldwide year after year, volume is no problem. Good volume + increasing margins = good profit growth! Could we finally be on the verge of turning the corner--permanently?! The optimism in this article certainly explains the rise in share prices we've seen across the board recently. Think I'll keep my still-underwater positions in CSIQ, JKS, and DQ a bit longer.
  43. 1 point
    https://www.pv-tech.org/news/canadian-solar-and-signal-bag-contract-for-175mw-new-south-wales-pv-project?fbclid=IwAR3byF0qu_XwNpM_Wj5LK3SE_8J3hQ332YWw7qu5VbYn6QtE9UKQ4THX6WU
  44. 1 point
    FSLR nowhere in sight by the way...
  45. 1 point
    Here is a news: China ready to set 3 GW quota for residential solar in 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/24/china-ready-to-set-3-gw-quota-for-residential-solar-in-2019/
  46. 1 point
    I believe at the time of the spinoff they had only something like 125MW of their 1GW plus in the catalog. The next catalog that came out I believe after the spinoff should have added about 300-400MW more leaving some 800MW not in the catalog. Then of course there is the GW or so a year they were adding after the spinoff that would not be in the catalog. Those post spinoff projects were funded by modules being sold by Jinko with little or no payment down. Those modules are now AR's and notess receivables. Some of the "revenues and profits" from Jinko are from those sales to Jinko New Energy which are at risk of default as well. The CEO is using JKS to float his spinoff. I do not trust Jinko Chairman to have the shareholders interest at heart.
  47. 1 point
    Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.
  48. 1 point
    Needham transcript https://seekingalpha.com/article/4233632-canadian-solar-inc-csiq-21st-annual-needham-growth-brokers-conference-transcript?page=1
  49. 1 point
    China unveils an ambitious new push on grid parity solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/10/china-unveils-an-ambitious-new-push-on-grid-parity-solar/
  50. 1 point
    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.


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