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  1. 2 points
    True grid parity without subsidies with storage around 2023 in the cheapest labor countries with moderately good insolation. Target $0.60/watt installed. If $0.10 for storage, then that becomes $0.50 without storage. At 35% module cost and 65% BOS, you have a module cost in projects at of $0.175 and a BOS of $0.325. The production costs will need to be around $0.13-$0.14 to achieve profits with Opex and shipping globally. By the way those production costs are in the mid to upper range of Perovskite prices suggested by GCL($0.10-$0.15). These are my rough numbers. but this article suggests 2020-2023 in China for the first subsidy free projects though they do get reduced land fees to free land use. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/05/22/china-reveals-details-of-first-15-gw-of-grid-parity-solar/
  2. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  3. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  4. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  5. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  6. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  7. 1 point
    Pretty interesting. This sort of thing will only continue. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/#727b67b05971
  8. 1 point
    I know their bifacial panels are a small part of CSIQ's sales, but wouldn't they suddenly become the panel of choice in the U.S. if they avoid the 30% tariff and are more efficient? Not sure where they are on costs, but that 30% off seems like a great place to start. Looks like it's up a bit after hours since news posted.
  9. 1 point
    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/ Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70. I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen. This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen. Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks. I added to my CSIQ today.
  10. 1 point
    I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7. Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products. IQ8 by the end of the year!
  11. 1 point
    Chinese solar execs detained in Germany on suspicion of smuggling modules into Europe: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/three-arrests-at-intersolar-europe-for-circumventing-eus-minimum-module-price/
  12. 1 point
    Vibes that the non-subsidy projects in China may take until 2022 or 2023 to be rolled out: Innovation and uncertainty mark SNEC 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/innovation-and-uncertainty-mark-snec-2019/
  13. 1 point
    CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
  14. 1 point
    Canadian Solar among buyers of 75% stake in Kazatomprom photovoltaic (PV) cell and module production units. https://renewablesnow.com/news/kazatomprom-selling-75-stake-in-kazakh-pv-production-ops-654654/
  15. 1 point
    Another hobo sighting: Evaluating Canadian Solar's Q4 2018 Earnings Selloff https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265136
  16. 1 point
    They should rename everything to losses instead of earnings. Losses release, losses con call, losses per share, etc. Complete crap. Used to be mad at the Chinese for keeping the dead alive (YGE) but turns out the westerners are not a bit better. Guess we're all human LOL.
  17. 1 point
    Looks like CSIQ is digging the CN solar policy news out today. It's been my personal ATM this year. Thanks to it and FSLR, I just signed a contract to go solar on our home, finally. Always been my goal to have solar pay for solar and today its official. Going with QCells and Enphase, however, sorry Qu, just made more sense. Pretty thrilled to get some modules up on the roof next month.
  18. 1 point
    I had been telling you that the costs being reported in ER's was not where current costs to manufacture were being headed. Now you have hard evidence that the cost to manufacture from the low wafer, cell and lamination price drops has pushed the cost down to $0.20. That cost point can easily be profitable at $0.25/watt that high efficiency poly is averaging according to PV insights. That $0.20 basically means they sell for 20% margins at what is the costs FSLR to produce their S6 modules at today. Their S4 module costs are even higher than your estimate $0.24-$0.25 FSLR has become a 1 trick pony selling into a protected subsidized market in which the subsidy will go away and competition will increase. I do not invest in companies that rely on a single market for 80%+ of their revenues. That never ends well.
  19. 1 point
    This is horrible for FSLR: "...Our module manufacturing cost in China, including purchased polysilicon, wafers and cells, decreased to $0.20 per watt in December 2018..."
  20. 1 point
    You guys be careful, Q1 will be horrible for Canadian, that's no secret anymore.
  21. 1 point
    Updated investor presentation out: http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/48509dd8-8e15-4d99-90f8-c22fa89905f8 Anything interesting you guys? I noticed they've started playing with quasi-mono. But why?
  22. 1 point
    Just like you've been predicting Daqo to lose money for the last three quarters and every time you were wrong. They don't need prices to rise (although that would be a nice bonus). They just need prices to stabilize somewhere, and to have costs below that. So far, their cost-cutting has managed to stay ahead of the price declines. I see no reason for that to cease.
  23. 1 point
    OMG looks like I won on estimize you guys. I was closest on EPS with $1.30. Philip Shen had $0.65 and Colin Rash $0.40.
  24. 1 point
    You are getting me wrong, I like DQ a lot and I was hoping I could buy some. But the price needs to drop, it's too expensive right now, out of sync with fundamentals imho.
  25. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  26. 1 point
    My estimize numbers are 0.16 and 75. Though it is highly possible that DQ uses the lousy 2018 4Q to clean up all the loose ends and write down the kitchen sink. If there is value in that inventory, etc. they just sell it and reconcile on the positive side for 1Q. So Klothhilde could be the winner here with a negative 4Q number. I agree with a turn up in the 2Q and continuous improvements throughout the year.
  27. 1 point
    If you were wondering why JKS has dumped, patent infringement cases filed against Jinko and Longi and the REC Group by QCells for stealing and using their patented quantum technology. They are trying to block them from the US and European Union markets among others. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/03/05/hanwha-q-cells-sues-jinko-longi-and-rec-for-patent-infringement/
  28. 1 point
    I think they have positive earnings of a couple pennies before 1 timers I expect a $1.85 spread on cost to ASP. I am using a lower cost and volume than yours Gross comes in around $12.6M My Opex and Int are slightly higher at $12.2M Q4 though is not relevant. 2019 costs and guidance are. I expect Q1 to be the low for the year in earnings in the low double digits and increasing from there. I expect Q1 costs to be around $7.50 I expect costs to decline slightly from there with production ramps and optimization The second half of 2019 should be stronger as that is were the forecast in volume increases over the first half. This should lead to a slight rise in ASP int he second half even with the new capacity. From this I reasonably expect a full year profit of North of $2 a share. Disclosure: I do not own DQ.
  29. 1 point
    I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  30. 1 point
    You clearly have not read the Green New Deal. If you did you would recognize it is uses the US Science intelligence report that identifies issues with Climate change. It identifies impacts of Global warming and effects on the U.S and globally. It then outlines goals and objectives with time lines in order to curb the impacts of man made US contributions to Global Warming. To me this is a reasonable to set goals to try and achieve them. Even if they achieve 50% of the goals and 50% of those targets, it is better than sitting around doing nothing. It is far better sounding to me than the current administration current policies of allowing more ground water pollution, more pollution put into the air, more strip mining and more burning of fossil fuels with less pollution inhibitors. It is only a 12 page outline of things to address and why. Please take the time to read it and do not listen to all the BS hype of banning airplane travel etc. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text?fbclid=IwAR0RQdF7V_HtPyYdjvAp-gk0Aq5iehvJ-c7_IU5MBg7M7PvBA2LGqN1R0DA
  31. 1 point
    You have not only the trade war, but the unwinding of the ITC tax credits that will come creating pricing pressures. This year the ITC is 30% tax credit , next years projects qualify for 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The ITC falls to 10% for commercial and grid after 2021. As the S6 ramps, the projects costs are going to have to drop 25% over the next 3 years. This will be heavily felt in the module ASP as it is some 30-40% of the cost to build in the U.S.
  32. 1 point
    Europe bounces back in 2018, and 2019 will be bigger. https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1707217/eu-solar-bounces-back-in-2018-led-by-german-and-dutch-push?utm_source=Recharge+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=c4c2e4fe31-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_21_09_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8680971c0c-c4c2e4fe31-19444157
  33. 1 point
    You are clueless. Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s
  34. 1 point
    That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today. The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal" This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity. These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at $0.26. That is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml Definition of Parity online “The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.” Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%. Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online. That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
  35. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  36. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  37. 1 point
    I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years. I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future. Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.
  38. 1 point
    Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k. I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year. But not gonna hold it for extended periods. Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.
  39. 1 point
    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  40. 1 point
    More on PG&E with commentary on the solar aspect as well as those companies most affected... https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/01/27/pge-gets-a-break-and-opportunity-is-still-knocking/#3767dfe56d10
  41. 1 point
    SWEET!!!! So prices are expected to rise, while everyone keeps cutting costs. Means margins will inflate. And with over 100 GW being installed worldwide year after year, volume is no problem. Good volume + increasing margins = good profit growth! Could we finally be on the verge of turning the corner--permanently?! The optimism in this article certainly explains the rise in share prices we've seen across the board recently. Think I'll keep my still-underwater positions in CSIQ, JKS, and DQ a bit longer.
  42. 1 point
    Says ASP's have already stabilized and will rise 10-15 percent this year. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-solar-gcl/party-is-over-for-dirt-cheap-solar-panels-says-china-executive-idUSKCN1PI2OQ
  43. 1 point
    Here is a news: China ready to set 3 GW quota for residential solar in 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/24/china-ready-to-set-3-gw-quota-for-residential-solar-in-2019/
  44. 1 point
    I believe at the time of the spinoff they had only something like 125MW of their 1GW plus in the catalog. The next catalog that came out I believe after the spinoff should have added about 300-400MW more leaving some 800MW not in the catalog. Then of course there is the GW or so a year they were adding after the spinoff that would not be in the catalog. Those post spinoff projects were funded by modules being sold by Jinko with little or no payment down. Those modules are now AR's and notess receivables. Some of the "revenues and profits" from Jinko are from those sales to Jinko New Energy which are at risk of default as well. The CEO is using JKS to float his spinoff. I do not trust Jinko Chairman to have the shareholders interest at heart.
  45. 1 point
    I would be concerned about JKS. They are the guarantor of the debt they spun off with the New Energy spinoff. A very large portion of those projects were not in the catalog and not getting the FIT payments.
  46. 1 point
    If your math is correct, they'd be smarter to just shut down their business right now.
  47. 1 point
    GP $620-$700M. Opex $430M+/- Interest $100M+/- ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues. Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM 700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM EPC $150M @ 15%GM
  48. 1 point
    Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.
  49. 1 point
    China unveils an ambitious new push on grid parity solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/10/china-unveils-an-ambitious-new-push-on-grid-parity-solar/
  50. 1 point
    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.


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