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  1. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  2. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  3. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  4. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  5. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  6. 1 point
    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  7. 1 point
    You guys be careful, Q1 will be horrible for Canadian, that's no secret anymore.
  8. 1 point
    Updated investor presentation out: http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/48509dd8-8e15-4d99-90f8-c22fa89905f8 Anything interesting you guys? I noticed they've started playing with quasi-mono. But why?
  9. 1 point
    Hmmm, Q4 DQ had 61% production being mono. In Q1 they are forecasting 78% of their production will be mono. To me that sounds like the Multi ASP drop will not impact them significantly for now. As you can see from their transcript below they indicate that Mono would not drop much due to the production costs of most online. In fact they were suggesting due to ratios of mono vs multi poly and much better pricing on Mono and more production Q1 should be improved margins. As for the price tightening, when everyone refines and moves from junk poly to mono quality, then the Si price for Poly wafer production will rebound as the glut will be less. That price rebound for poly would create a narrowing in the price gap. That suggests that that while Mono may decline some, it will not necessarily decline much since the Mono wafers is ramping much faster this year in wafer productions vs last year. Now to add to that DQ, is suggesting they will reduce cash costs to $6.0/KG. That is close to 20% from the Q4 producton costs, This means that they can easily maintain profitability with handle the price dropping 20% from Q4 levels to $~8/KG . When you recognize they will have 2x the capacity and $6/Kg cost, the spread and margins can be narrower and they can make more money than now come 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "For example, I can say an example, in Q4, our monosilicon supply is around 61%. So, if you look our gross margin, our monosilicon price ASP is around like $10 and the multi is around $6.30 or whatever. Our ASP is around like renminbi is around like – US dollar maybe around like $9.50. So, we see in Q1, we will get more improved our gross margin, the reason because first of all, the monosilicon percentage will increase to around 77%, 78%,"
  10. 1 point
    I've lost count of how many times they have lied to investors. I buy their audited financial statements but not much more than that. That's just me.
  11. 1 point
    Just like you've been predicting Daqo to lose money for the last three quarters and every time you were wrong. They don't need prices to rise (although that would be a nice bonus). They just need prices to stabilize somewhere, and to have costs below that. So far, their cost-cutting has managed to stay ahead of the price declines. I see no reason for that to cease.
  12. 1 point
    Exactly, Explo. CN solars should be bought when everyone is selling them (or better yet sold alredy) and sold when everyone is buying them (or better yet bought already), not the other way around. I.E.:JKS should have been bought last quarter of last year at $8-9 and sold earlier this month once it hit $20 (none can pick absolute top and bottom); just like CSIQ should have been bought for much of last half of last year at $12-13 and sold this month in $22-23. I believe we won't see irrational move in solar circa 2009/10 and 2012/13 again. So double is good enough, triple is great. Just do no think CSIQ will get to $40 (without yieldco anticipation of 2014) nor JKS will hit $30+ without Power. Those days are done. Possibility of high margins return is hard to see when all legacy projects are gone and only low margin businesses remain where volume will be everything. Brian Lee asked JKS on Friday where are they going to get $500M without an equity raise they need to expend to 15GW. I did not hear a clear answer from Jinko's side, cause there isn't.
  13. 1 point
    PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  14. 1 point
    Second half recovery! Everybody's doing it. It's all the rage. (MU, NVDA, AMD).. why not the solar stocks too?
  15. 1 point
    They are sold out into 2021 at fixed prices. Nothing can change their top line in 2020, not even the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs.
  16. 1 point
    OMG looks like I won on estimize you guys. I was closest on EPS with $1.30. Philip Shen had $0.65 and Colin Rash $0.40.
  17. 1 point
    OK, in your opinion. Obviously the market disagrees with you right now. But you post information meant to be critical of DQ on a nearly daily basis. Half the time, your interpretation is wrong--the article you reference is actually positive in its entirety, but you pull out an isolated number and present it in a negative light. Or ask us how we should "spin" it. This behavior reminds me of the Yahoo message boards. Do you think your "spinning" actually influences the stock price? Surely you're more intelligent than that. You want the stock price to go down. I want it to go up. Nothing either you or I do or say in this forum will influence what the stock actually does. I value this forum precisely because it is NOT the Yahoo environment. If I want to read "spin," I'll go there (and I sometimes do, when I want a laugh). Here, I want to read quantitative analysis. Moreover, I want to read CONSISTENT analysis. Don't tell me you're looking 2 years out for one stock, but are concerned about the next 3 months for another. Or if you do, just tell me once. You don't have to tell me every day. I don't mean to offend. Your posts are at least polite, unlike the Yahoo crowd. But they clearly support an agenda. We all know that agenda by now. And there's nothing wrong with having an agenda. But when you post it every day, well, it just gets old, that's all.
  18. 1 point
    You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  19. 1 point
    So they wrote off the inventory last couple Q's and now they sell it and claim revenue with great margins. What a scam. I thought that would be put under other income and not revenues.
  20. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  21. 1 point
    My estimize numbers are 0.16 and 75. Though it is highly possible that DQ uses the lousy 2018 4Q to clean up all the loose ends and write down the kitchen sink. If there is value in that inventory, etc. they just sell it and reconcile on the positive side for 1Q. So Klothhilde could be the winner here with a negative 4Q number. I agree with a turn up in the 2Q and continuous improvements throughout the year.
  22. 1 point
    If you were wondering why JKS has dumped, patent infringement cases filed against Jinko and Longi and the REC Group by QCells for stealing and using their patented quantum technology. They are trying to block them from the US and European Union markets among others. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/03/05/hanwha-q-cells-sues-jinko-longi-and-rec-for-patent-infringement/
  23. 1 point
    I think they have positive earnings of a couple pennies before 1 timers I expect a $1.85 spread on cost to ASP. I am using a lower cost and volume than yours Gross comes in around $12.6M My Opex and Int are slightly higher at $12.2M Q4 though is not relevant. 2019 costs and guidance are. I expect Q1 to be the low for the year in earnings in the low double digits and increasing from there. I expect Q1 costs to be around $7.50 I expect costs to decline slightly from there with production ramps and optimization The second half of 2019 should be stronger as that is were the forecast in volume increases over the first half. This should lead to a slight rise in ASP int he second half even with the new capacity. From this I reasonably expect a full year profit of North of $2 a share. Disclosure: I do not own DQ.
  24. 1 point
    Q1 sales are generally announced near the end of Q1 or a couple weeks into Q2. They also are relying more and more on EPC contracted work from projects they did sell in the past before completed.
  25. 1 point
    Ah, I see, you are narrowly looking at the word Green New Deal and suggesting it is strictly power. Green means many things. Like Getting Chemicals our of building materials. Getting harmful chemicals out of the ground and water. Having healthy natural foods that are not processed or altered (GMO) or hormone injected being fed to to us. Medicines that are consumed and then pissed into the water systems polluting the water. Broaden your scope and this New Deal lays out a template of objectives that are good goals to want to achieve.
  26. 1 point
    You clearly have not read the Green New Deal. If you did you would recognize it is uses the US Science intelligence report that identifies issues with Climate change. It identifies impacts of Global warming and effects on the U.S and globally. It then outlines goals and objectives with time lines in order to curb the impacts of man made US contributions to Global Warming. To me this is a reasonable to set goals to try and achieve them. Even if they achieve 50% of the goals and 50% of those targets, it is better than sitting around doing nothing. It is far better sounding to me than the current administration current policies of allowing more ground water pollution, more pollution put into the air, more strip mining and more burning of fossil fuels with less pollution inhibitors. It is only a 12 page outline of things to address and why. Please take the time to read it and do not listen to all the BS hype of banning airplane travel etc. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text?fbclid=IwAR0RQdF7V_HtPyYdjvAp-gk0Aq5iehvJ-c7_IU5MBg7M7PvBA2LGqN1R0DA
  27. 1 point
    Why are you calling First Solar a POS? It seems you have transferred your anger at a certain poster onto the company. The outright hostility some folks here have for FSLR is rather comical. When comparing First Solar and Canadian Solar you really need to go by enterprise value as the debt (and lack of debt) really changes the picture. First Solar has an EV of $3.2B. Canadian Solar is at $2.85B. Redoing forward earnings based on EV leaves FSLR at 13 and CSIQ over 14. Both companies seem to be similarly priced right now. Then consider that First Solar could have gone all SunPower and considered the ramp and startup costs as a Non-GAAP expense. Doing so would have put EPS at around $4. In addition, EPS won't tell the whole picture because in a year or two cash flow will go up dramatically as the new S6 factories start to depreciate. Lastly, FSLR has these earnings based on 17% efficiency panels. Considering that 3 years ago the company created a cell with 22.1% efficiency, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to think the company can get module efficiency over 20% in the next three years. Doing so would have a dramatic impact on cost per watt and earnings. Solar has gotten to the point where it has gotten cheaper than the operating cost of coal unsubsidized. That means it should really take off soon. Plus, the mad rush to drive prices down should lessen.
  28. 1 point
    JKS' double in 3 months (almost a triple in 4 months) combined with a massive contract with DQ announce the other day (a.k.a. expansion) smells like a secondary is coming.
  29. 1 point
    You have not only the trade war, but the unwinding of the ITC tax credits that will come creating pricing pressures. This year the ITC is 30% tax credit , next years projects qualify for 26% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The ITC falls to 10% for commercial and grid after 2021. As the S6 ramps, the projects costs are going to have to drop 25% over the next 3 years. This will be heavily felt in the module ASP as it is some 30-40% of the cost to build in the U.S.
  30. 1 point
    Who says I don't believe the outlook is shiny? Just because I warn against investing in some solar companies doesn't mean I don't believe in solar. In fact I think I'm one of the fiercest believers in solar here.
  31. 1 point
    Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  32. 1 point
    Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/
  33. 1 point
    I'll add that the 13Fs that have been trickling in for FSLR have been very sexy. Some serious purchases last quarter on the weakness.
  34. 1 point
    First Solar risk/reward remains favorable into Q4 report, says Baird Baird analyst Ben Kallo previewed First Solar's Q4 report and he believes the risk/reward setup is favorable heading into the results. The analyst said he would be a buyer into the report as he thinks a recovering macro environment in the solar space could improve sentiment and drive share appreciation. Kallo said it remains a top pick and he maintained his Fresh Pick designation while reiterating his Outperform rating and $75 price target on First Solar shares.Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2864736
  35. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  36. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  37. 1 point
    Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k. I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year. But not gonna hold it for extended periods. Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.
  38. 1 point
    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  39. 1 point
    My second recommendation is Sangamo Therapeutics, SGMO. By Feb 7, the company will have a delivery of the results in MPS II and MPS I. They are first in the world to edit the human genome in vivo. MPS II results were released in September where the application reduced negative byproduct GAGs. In Feb expectation is to confirm that IDS enzyme is produced therefore GAGs are reduced by patients' production of IDS, a deficit of the enzyme is a sole root-cause of MPS II disease. The stock volatility may be very high. However, for those with risk acceptance, now and next 7 trading days from today, the stock could move 10 to 15%. If something fails a 20 to 30% may be experienced on Feb 7. There are more stories to this company. If I will see that Feb 7 is validated I will offer a bigger summary. Proceed at your own risk and good luck.
  40. 1 point
    https://www.pv-tech.org/news/canadian-solar-and-signal-bag-contract-for-175mw-new-south-wales-pv-project?fbclid=IwAR3byF0qu_XwNpM_Wj5LK3SE_8J3hQ332YWw7qu5VbYn6QtE9UKQ4THX6WU
  41. 1 point
    Says ASP's have already stabilized and will rise 10-15 percent this year. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-solar-gcl/party-is-over-for-dirt-cheap-solar-panels-says-china-executive-idUSKCN1PI2OQ
  42. 1 point
    FSLR nowhere in sight by the way...
  43. 1 point
    Here is a news: China ready to set 3 GW quota for residential solar in 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/24/china-ready-to-set-3-gw-quota-for-residential-solar-in-2019/
  44. 1 point
    I believe at the time of the spinoff they had only something like 125MW of their 1GW plus in the catalog. The next catalog that came out I believe after the spinoff should have added about 300-400MW more leaving some 800MW not in the catalog. Then of course there is the GW or so a year they were adding after the spinoff that would not be in the catalog. Those post spinoff projects were funded by modules being sold by Jinko with little or no payment down. Those modules are now AR's and notess receivables. Some of the "revenues and profits" from Jinko are from those sales to Jinko New Energy which are at risk of default as well. The CEO is using JKS to float his spinoff. I do not trust Jinko Chairman to have the shareholders interest at heart.
  45. 1 point
    I would be concerned about JKS. They are the guarantor of the debt they spun off with the New Energy spinoff. A very large portion of those projects were not in the catalog and not getting the FIT payments.
  46. 1 point
    GP $620-$700M. Opex $430M+/- Interest $100M+/- ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues. Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM 700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM EPC $150M @ 15%GM
  47. 1 point
    Low end I see is $1.25 high end range is $2.25. Shipments for revenues in the 8GW range.
  48. 1 point
    Nice to see CSIQ hitting 52-week highs, getting business globally, becoming independent off commodity material swings. I read commentary how they going to fall on their face with their multi products. Not likely if they build solar parks with them as a major user. CSIQ adaptability to business cycles seems superior to any other listed company. And surprisingly the market is recognizing it. Days of $40 per share may not be gone but if anything CSIQ has a chance to reach that in a couple years.
  49. 1 point
    Needham transcript https://seekingalpha.com/article/4233632-canadian-solar-inc-csiq-21st-annual-needham-growth-brokers-conference-transcript?page=1
  50. 1 point
    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.


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