This is a lumpy update for SGMO Investment Strategy
The company is reporting on November 8th, Thursday after the bell. They have the conference call also after the market closes. It is the tradition to report during the day some interesting news, prior to the call.
There are a number of catalysts which may help the price, but the stock can drop if something is not working or has been poorly described by the company.
The updates may include the following info:
1. IND for Fabry
2. An update on the first patient treated for MPS I
3. An indication that the patient was treated for BT or hemophilia B
4. Enrollment for SCD as IND was already approved
5. Comments could be made about hemophilia A phase 2 with Pfizer. Not much is expected for this as ASH presentation is scheduled for December 1-4 meetings.
6. Not expecting a lot on MPS II. It could be an update on dosing or decision to pull ERT treatment to allow the edit to show its work. If this happens that would be a lot and huge if positive
The language during a call could sink the stock if spoken poorly about the assay availability or no comment on availability
Comment on ASH (Dec 1-4)
Update on hemophilia A will likely have an update on 3 cohorts only. This means 2 patients in therapeutic level which is 12% plus as SM mentioned tirelessly to this point. WS had made the level of enzyme production a billboard score for percentages, where BioMarin is a winner. We will likely learn that the next cohort will proceed or proceeding. Higher production score likely will be welcomed, no steroid use will be good as usage will do what happened to Spark (ONCE) stock. Now durability data will be very important. If cohort 3 patients see any level of reduction, we will get a haircut. The ultimate outcome would be confirmation of words from SM that Pfizer will get the phase III ready product in hemophilia A from Sangamo in 2019. Summarizing we will need confirmations:
1. Cohort 3 confirmation of therapeutic result in two patients
2. Limited data must show durability or no reduction of the level of enzyme
3. No steroid use, any indication of steroid use, makes Spark better because of percentage score and apparent durability
4. Confirmation of 4 cohort dosing and support for the 5th cohort.
5. Collaboration between Pfizer, Sangamo, and FDA on phase III trial plans to perhaps use cohort 5, 6 as base and indication to enroll patients in 2019 mid-year.
If all that is said and done, we can see $20s in December. If MPS II edit is shown to be curative with ERT pulled and enzyme detection we have $30 plus stock by end of February. Updates mentioned can drive SGMO to the level of $40. I see this to be, $4B a well-positioned market capitalization before phase III trials for MPS II, MPS I and hemophilia A.
For those who are interested in biotech,