Hi Explo -
Sorry, I didn't mean that I expect earnings to be weaker than guided. More like if they guide the same numbers as before, maybe people will realize it really is just max 0.45 EPS for 2017. That, combined with possibly weaker reports from everyone else might drive down the price. Or maybe they'll have positive series 6 news & the stock will shoot through the roof.
About the size. I am not a materials scientist or PV engineer, but I would imagine making CdTe panels is more difficult than making TVs. For the simple reason we already have these giant TVs, but we do not yet have large format CdTe panels. I really do hope they can pull it off, but it does seem like a big technological leap.
Another reason going from small to big is a leap... if it were easy First Solar would have done it a while ago. As he said, margins would be much better on those large format panels.
Another negative is that many smart people have tried & failed at making cheaper than silicon panels. I do not understand the reason for CIGS failures, but there have been some serious smart & well financed people trying this over longer periods of time that ultimately failed.
I think the larger the surface area, the more difficult making them becomes due to how the energy must travel across the surface. And it's probably a sort of non linear type of increase in complexity. On the other side of the scale is the efficiency.
FSLR management has promised the moon: larger panels && higher efficiency at the same time.
If Series 6 is real & those $/W are real, then I bet we'll see some extreme buying of FSLR sooner rather than later.