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  1. Yesterday
  2. Article on how the multi-mono spread is expected to narrow. This lady from Junko Energy thinks it will mostly be multi rising in price, in line with the thinking of some users here. I think it will be mostly mono dropping. Let's wait and see. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190619/987046.shtml
  3. Last week
  4. That makes sense too. So with Phase 4 underway with a target of completion by the end of the year, any current borrowing of any kind is going to have some repayment obligations during this year. Maybe they use some of their cash first, then debt, then go to the markets for more cash. They have options so when is very hard to figure out. Thanks again for your thoughts.
  5. Thanks for your views. I have GP at $114M at 12.5% margin and OPEX&int at $123M. They guided "stable" margins excluding the CVD impact in Q4 (i.e. thus 13.8%), however experience shows they are not that strict with this wording and that "stable" for them may also include a 10-15% drop in margin. However what has me wondering about margins is the fact they mentioned twice in the con call that rising mono-PERC cell prices would "impact" the margin in Q1, but that they expected improving margins in H2, suggesting to me they expect a drop in overall margin in Q1 despite rising in-house margins. This is admittedly based largely on vibes I get from their wording. Regarding CVD reversals they mentioned in Q3 that they expected a further reversal in Q4 and then no further in 2019. I looked at the exchange rate impact in previous quarters and they do seem to suffer when the RMB appreciates, thus I factored in a sizable loss for Q1. But I do agree with you in that these guys have ways to pad their earnings when required with accounting gimmicks, thus I will up my estimate on estimize to barely break-even ($0.01) though I continue to expect a small operating loss.
  6. I expect gross coming in around $130M+/- at 15% margins. I have Opex and interest at $130M +/- Thus I have them breakeven to slight loss or profit from operations. It really depends on margins and other impacts. I am not certain about their hedging on forex. CSIQ had a big Forex loss from appreciation of the RMB. The 15% margins presumes some CVD reversal again as they and CSIQ have been claiming to pad earnings. If you believe margins is closer to 14% then that is $8-$9M lower gross which could push them to a loss that you are looking at. They are cryptic in guidance as they suggested that they need 30-40% of their product outsourced and the rising costs of those outsourced parts of upstream and modules. This will offset some of the believed ASP increases from more Mono Perc production. Thus the flat margin guidance they gave These solars are not predictable anymore due to many adjustments. At current price levels they are to rich for the risk reward levels.
  7. SC and others, what is your estimate for Q1? I have them at an of EPS -$0.26 and Rev of $907.70M on estimize and am worried big time because I'm the only one forecasting a loss there and if I'm wrong I will lose many points.
  8. Earlier
  9. I guess it's 25% now, but still significant.
  10. Total renewable energy capacity passes that of coal in the U.S. FERC projections that Renewables will supply 1/3 of the capacity in a few years. https://solarindustrymag.com/renewables-finally-beat-coal-for-u-s-electrical-generating-capacity For the first time, U.S. electrical generating capacity by renewable energy sources – biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind – has surpassed that of coal, according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of new data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
  11. I know their bifacial panels are a small part of CSIQ's sales, but wouldn't they suddenly become the panel of choice in the U.S. if they avoid the 30% tariff and are more efficient? Not sure where they are on costs, but that 30% off seems like a great place to start. Looks like it's up a bit after hours since news posted.
  12. Mark

    Solar News

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/ Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70. I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen. This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen. Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks. I added to my CSIQ today.
  13. By the time their first debt payment comes due. I would expect like most CN offerings a 10-15% dilution or appx 1.5- 2 million shares. That would generate cash for about 15-20% of the debt. The added capacity should be good for around $40M in added gross profit anually. Just some rough numbers off the top of my head, I would speculate that would be good for about $2 a share in added earnings with the debt service payments. That would look to be a second half 2020 boon in earnings in which they could be looking at $6+ a share($1.5/Q) in earnings if the cost to ASP spread maintains around $1.75.
  14. Well, I"m no longer a FSLR shareholder... made more than i lost overall, but i don't have the stomach for this.
  15. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/
  16. That would be horrible for FSLR. What's the source?
  17. Very nice analysis, I think I would have to agree with this. The question then becomes, when do they pull the trigger on a secondary to raise cash through a stock sale?
  18. USA grants tariff exemption for imports of bi-facial solar modules! No link yet....
  19. Debt and secondary offerings will be needed to finish off the ~$450M phase 4A. From the Q4 con call the way I read it is that Phase 4A is 2.9Billion RMB or roughly $450M. There is no way cash flows pay for this or a secondary. If they do debt on say $400M, then they have upwards of $20M in interest initially. Earnings would be impacted significantly with that level of debt payments. Thus they need a combination of a secondary, operational cash flow and debt. just my opinion. Then there is the 4B expansion that was not discussed in details in the Q4 call. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Longgen Zhang Well, for Phase A, I think it basically right now because Chongqing right now is in battle with that. So, our construction right now almost finished 18% and for the old design approval all finished. I think for the equipment, I think procurement, the contracts that we have signed, total today, we have signed around RMB2.6 billion. The total project cost – total cost is around below RMB2.9 billion. So basically our schedule starting to trial production is October 15. Up to to-date we are still thinking we are on the schedule and ramping production in the Q1 2020. And for the 4B we need to tell on the market see what’s going on and also to see our future cash flow. So basically we are not determining when or whether we will go to starting 4B.
  20. Any thoughts on Phase 4 financing? I think we have discussed this before when debating whether DQ will have another secondary and raise money by selling more stock. I think DQ has addressed this by discussing various loan opportunities, etc. as a way of discouraging the idea of a secondary but with the stock now in the 40s any more of a push up towards the 50s could tease them into re-evaluating the stock issue option. What do you guys think? Thanks in advance.
  21. NICE!! That's a lotta panels. And notice that key adjective "unsubsidized." If you're still wondering "where's the grid parity"--this is it!
  22. Yes, most of my gains this year have come from ENPH. A great story!
  23. http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/06/10/1866321/0/en/Enphase-Energized-AC-Modules-Reach-Over-500-Solar-Contractors-in-the-United-States.html
  24. I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7. Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products. IQ8 by the end of the year!
  25. Iberdrola building a humongous plant in Spain under €0.5/W: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/iberdrola-plans-590-mw-solar-park-in-southern-spain/
  26. CanadianSolar EPS was UPgraded again by analysts today: 2019 = $2.23 > $2.36 > $2.4/share 2020 = $2.74 > $2.81/share http://investors.canadiansolar.com/index.php/earnings-estimates
  27. Chinese solar execs detained in Germany on suspicion of smuggling modules into Europe: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/three-arrests-at-intersolar-europe-for-circumventing-eus-minimum-module-price/
  28. Vibes that the non-subsidy projects in China may take until 2022 or 2023 to be rolled out: Innovation and uncertainty mark SNEC 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/innovation-and-uncertainty-mark-snec-2019/
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