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  1. Yesterday
  2. China installing 5.2GW in Q1: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/18/new-figures-reveal-effect-of-policy-vacuum-on-chinas-large-scale-solar/ "The latest new solar capacity figures to emerge from China have painted an even grimmer picture than previously thought as a continuing national PV policy vacuum keeps the utility scale segment of the world’s biggest solar marketplace in the doldrums."
  3. No I do not see it as a typo. I see it as a market demand. Articles from China had been suggesting that the mono demand in China is weak because of the price disparity between a watt of Multi that was at $0.21 and a watt of High Perf Perc that was at $0.28. That spread was pushing builders to take multi over mono. So what you see is the dicotomy of low Multi production being suddenly in demand and the price rise with it, while Mono which is being pushed as the tech driven down to try and compete with price spread difference. Even the CEO of CSIQ indicated he expected the Mono Multi price to converge and get back to norms where the cost to build a project has little impact if Multi was to be used over Mono. That would be back down to a $0.02-$0.03 spread. The way you get there is to have Multi rise and Mono drop.
  4. Last week
  5. MVA

    Solar News

    We will see in Energytrend comments tomorrow if it is typo or not...
  6. Probably some kind of typo, no jump on PVInsights nor on PVInfolink. http://pvinsights.com/ https://www.pvinfolink.com/index.php?lang=en
  7. MVA

    Solar News

    And yet PV module prices jumped big this week... https://www.energytrend.com/solar-price.html
  8. 20-F out: http://ir.jinkosolar.com/sec-filings Let me know if you find something fishy.
  9. REC shutting down Moses Lake in May. Layoffs starting in June if Trump doesn't resolve the tariff thing. So sad, this is a beautiful plant. http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/apr/12/rec-silicon-to-shut-down-production-in-may-long-te/
  10. explo

    Solar News

    I haven't read all articles on demand speculation, but following this industry for 10 years I've seen that low price on money is usually boosting demand. FED and ECB pivot to economy accommodation will make those spreadsheets on solar IRR look more attractive. Who's making money on the demand is then decided by the forex moves. Keep your cost in weak currencies and sales in the strong ones. Note that the places where money is cheap can see its currency strength effected by this. Sure what's going on in the industry and at its companies matters too 😉
  11. Well Roth for one sees the latest policy announcement as an incremental negative and downsizes its forecast from 50 to 40 GW. http://taiyangnews.info/markets/china-issues-draft-policy-for-solarwind-projects/
  12. The article is actually pessimistic overall for the year. They are suggesting 40GW. Most of the articles I have read and what JKS and others are suggesting is they expect an over under at 45GW.
  13. Jus' sayn': https://www.pv-tech.org/news/xinte-energy-issues-q1-profit-warning-as-polysilicon-asps-continue-to-decli
  14. MVA

    Solar News

    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  15. Earlier
  16. You guys be careful, Q1 will be horrible for Canadian, that's no secret anymore.
  17. MVA

    Solar News

    A little bit more details here... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/china-plans-to-enter-a-subsidy-free-solar-market-beginning-in-2021
  18. Mark

    Solar News

    I'm glad you were able to parse through that and understand.. i read the story 3 times this morning and still don't feel like I have much 'light shed' on my understanding of it and its effects.
  19. MVA

    Solar News

    China enters 18-month transition to subsidy-free solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/11/china-enters-18-month-transition-to-subsidy-free-solar/ If this new policy will have similar effect on components cost in China as May 31 policy, then companies like Canadian solar (with 90% of their sales outside of China) will benefit enormously. Margins will be in the 20-25% range again.
  20. So good old Goldman Sachs once again raises. Buy to Conviction Buy (they REALLY mean it this time and PROMISE not to sell it off this time) and from $64 -> $75. A lot must have changed for them in a few weeks. What, they're upgrading FSLR every month this year? What's next "Strong Conviction Buy" with $85 target?
  21. Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  22. Mark

    Solar News

    This doesn't really belong on the forum, but kinda does... anyone have any experience with Mission Solar panels? We're looking to finally go solar and a local company pitched these as a great option for us. Anyone have any opinions on quality?
  23. Has anyone noticed that PV insights has a new wafer category for 158.75MM mono wafers. These are the new rectangular half cut cells that are being used in the new highpowered 415W 72 cell modules. http://pvinsights.com/ 158.75 / 161.75mm Mono Wafer 0.460 0.415 0.439 According to this article , these wafers are in very high demand. Jinko is migrating/has migrated their mono wafers to this new size, and GCL is doing the same for Multi cells. The deliver around 4% more power and demand a higher price than the cost to manufacture. Demand is so high that Jinko and their 5GW have gone to buying these wafers from outside sources to meed demand as customers were going elsewhere. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190408/973273.shtml "As the initiator of the 158.75mm square single crystal specification, Jinko Energy not only switched its own 5GW monocrystalline silicon wafer to 158.75mm in the fourth quarter of last year, but also purchased the silicon wafer of this size from the outside, because its own production capacity is completely Unable to meet end market demand." " In the environment where the monocrystalline silicon wafer is in short supply, the premium brought by the elimination of the lead angle to the industrial chain will be mostly eaten by the monocrystalline silicon wafer. That is to say, although the elimination of the lead angle may increase the cost of each wafer by 0.17 yuan, the price can be sold at 0.35 yuan, and the profit margin is better."
  24. “There has been a lot of speculation about when China will announce the new policy. Yet, since it will take 2-3 months to put the new policy into action, demand will certainly remain weak in Q2.“ https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=173
  25. Since your accounts have quite different holdings your total risk-adjusted return is likely higher than the average of the individual accounts. Diversification offers a free lunch when investing. This can maximize returns when combined with leverage to achieve the desired risk level. It sounds like you have a good setup for your risk comfort zone. It's cheaper to lever down than up.
  26. Yes I would consider the account with the 18.5% return as a high risk as of now. It is 20% of my investments in the markets and thus I consider it a relative low risk to the overall value. It is heavily weighted to foreign China, healthcare, and growth stocks. The portfolio has benefited by a large gain in my core investment in a China ETF that has gained 27% this year. I entered into that fund Dec 12 in my rebalance after reading that China was going to be looking to increase the RMB stength and the US was touting positive trade talks. That fund while a large portion of the one portfolio is only around 5% of my total market investments. If you looks at all foreign market investments I am about 8-9% in total. I consider that moderate risk exposure to the foreign markets. My other core holdings are Intel and MSFT have pushed 20% for the year. I consider those not volatile but MSFT has an index of 25.6% The account with 16.6% returns is a moderate risk portfolio. It is 50% of my investments in the markets. It has benefited from an increase in value in Marijuana stocks this year(got dusted last year) and from my core INTC/MSFT holdings. It has benefited from some short term trades in solar this year including a recent investment in TAN after the earnings pullback. Breakdown of investments 18.5% returns YTD Cash 16% currently Individual Stocks are INTC 5%, MSFT 5% Funds/ETFs – SNP 10.3%, midcapGrwth 10.8%, CN 30%, Software 9.75%, Healthcare 12.3% .Breakdown of investments 16.6% returns YTD cash at 18.8% currently Large Cap is 48.3%, mid/small cap is 14.6%, international 3.6% Individual Stocks are MSFT 14%, INTC 6%, Marijuana stocks @ 5% Funds/ETFs - 2xDOW(DDM)11%, Heathcare 5%, SnP 7%, Software 5%, Nasd 11%, Solar 3%, Retirement – SnP index fund thus the market match.
  27. Although the leverage target is fixed the actual leverage is opportunistically flexible, but its level at any given time is rules based (to buy when relative prices are low) not by discretionary macro or other speculative decision. During Q1 it averaged 2.36x. I've let it naturally grow a little to avoid excessive costs during recent reconstruction as I expanded the asset allocation pool and increased the volatility target (but not the leverage target). If I were invested with your 0.8x lever my return would be almost 3 times lower at 12.45%. So my return on assets was below all of your returns, but likely with less volatility. When I recently increased my volatility target (thanks for you tip leading me to examine that path again after changing the allocation pool) more IT and Healthcare was allocated at the expense of Consumer like we discussed before. I think your asset allocation might still be more growth aggressive than mine and dominate your volatility (dampened by your low leverage) while my volatility is still quite low for the total asset allocation and is more dominated by the high leverage. Since the period above is short and the return is high the risk-free return is negligible which means return on risk can be normalized simply by dividing with the volatility (normally the risk-free return should be deducted first). Since I'm still in the build up phase while you are closer to the tapping phase one cannot say that one level of volatility would be correct for both of us. My new higher risk target remains to be tested by time. The December volatility spike was a good test for my previous volatility target and caused a drawdown depth of 25% compared to the market 20% as correlations spiked simultaneously but ended much more quickly than the market.
  28. Thanks. Your returns were likely achieved with lower volatility. On a risk-adjusted return basis it was still a very nice benchmark beat for me during Q1. I'm by my 2x leverage target around 200% invested, but with a reasonable Beta value target of 0.9. The volatility target is 25%, which is 150% of the average market volatility, but with more normally distributed returns (less volatile short-term volatility) than the market.
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