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  1. Today
  2. Klothilde "Yes, terrific news, but how about the 350MW of operating plants in China? Will those be sold at a loss similar to the one incurred by Shunfeng with their plants" but :"A key factor in SFCE’s mounting debt have been long delays in receiving FiT payments for electricity generation from the Chinese State Grid. SFCE has outstanding FiT receivables of approximately RMB 3,069 million (US$436 million) going back almost two years. " so -100M, 50% write down, + 436 M= +...!, ore are the FIT "forever lost" ???
  3. Yesterday
  4. Hi all we have received additional $96 CAD (after PayPal tax). Thank you everyone for your contributions.
  5. Mark

    Solar News

    Turned in my Jifan Gao fan club card and the polo shirt they sent me (no lie) long ago, so I’m with Klothilde here. I hope he’s right but don’t trust him much.
  6. CANADIAN SOLAR COMPLETES THE SALE OF THE LAST SUBSIDIZED OPERATIONAL PROJECT OF 3.3 MWP IN THE UK http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-completes-sale-last-subsidized-operational Yes, terrific news, but how about the 350MW of operating plants in China? Will those be sold at a loss similar to the one incurred by Shunfeng with their plants? And when will we get smacked exactly? 2020 or 2021? https://www.pv-tech.org/news/sfce-sells-pv-power-plants-at-loss-to-reduce-debt-levels
  7. We have to be careful not to overestimate China again in 2020 by listening to stakeholders who are just interested in pushing hype. Let's rather listen to what people have to say when they're allowed to speak their honest mind. "...The new system has been one of the major factors dampening new installations, said an analyst at a major Western research house, speaking on condition his name not be used due to company policy. He also blamed the slowdown on the winding down of a government program designed to bring solar power to China’s poorer regions, which had been contributing about one-quarter of new installations over the last few years. He said that like the Photovoltaic Industry Association, his organization was also forecasting total installations would reach about 30 GW this year, down by about one-third from 2018. But he predicted the figure would be similar in 2020, between 28 GW and 32 GW, as the situation stabilizes..." https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-06/solar-power-fades-with-end-of-state-support-but-seen-stabilizing-in-2020-101491533.html
  8. MVA

    Solar News

    China’s Worst Solar Days Seen Over as Capacity Is Set to Soar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-05/china-s-worst-solar-days-seen-over-as-capacity-is-set-to-soar
  9. Last week
  10. This is just my personal opinion, mind you--but I don't think yesterday's action had anything to do with the panel news. If anything, the prospect of more panels entering the US should be a positive for all inverter makers, as all of those panels need some kind of inverter. I think whoever's screwing with this stock isn't done yet. Every time there is a piece of good news, there's a sudden wave of selling--as in on the order of a million shares sold within half an hour or less. It sure looks to me like "someone" just doesn't want this stock to rise too suddenly. Now it has risen nicely off the $17 low--but it never should have gone that low in the first place. Like I said, I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist, but this is the third time this stock has been hit by what sure looks like a coordinated short attack. So my take is that it's currently completely impossible to predict day-to-day actions of this stock. Good news is liable to be met with a quick 5-10% drop in stock price. But long-term, this is still my favorite in the solar space. And in the meantime, the volatility is good for trading, if you can stomach the occasional free-falls. BTW, DQ has suddenly returned from the dead. 5% moves every day, although on average volume. Looks like someone is building a position. Hope that continues next week! Solarpete
  11. No double counting but indeed a small mistake in my excel because I based the 15%GM on the ex-tariff ASP. Hope this is clearer: mono-PERC production cost SEA: 22.0 cts tariff: 6.8 cts (20% of ASP) COGS: 22+6.8 = 28.8 cts ASP: 33.9 cts GM: 5.1 cts (15% of ASP) I assume production cost in SEA is 1ct above China which I put at 21 cts. The above would be my cost structure for Q1 2020.
  12. Hi all, a final request for this year, we are still short $165 CAD before PayPal tax for the two year plan for hosting. In Christmas spirit I hope we can get support from the members, visitors.... We have Google ads as well, but nobody is clicking those....the traffic is really small as well. All the best
  13. Hold on, you double counted!!! The CN has shipping and insurance included in Opex which is covered in your 4.4 ct margin. That 4.4 margin is higher than the 4.0 Opex per watt they had in Q3. You also used a higher cost of $0.22 than you calculated $0.21.
  14. Yes as usual I consider your future cost assumptions a little high. If your quoting me, lets be clear, the quote you cited was for Q4 2019 and not 2020. It is also a blended cost that includes hundreds of MW of OEM panels that are lower margins and higher costs. That blended cost also uses higher ASP for upstream components. Now to fully quote me, you can go down further in that same thread in which I state " 2020 Internal production 16GW(4GW per Q avg) A continued decline of 15% through the year places an ASP Avg ASP = $0.2745*0.85=$0.233 Internal Cost low = $0.233*.75 = $0.175 Internal High Cost = $0.233*.1866" My thread in which I suggest good profits at under a $0.28 ASP is consistent with my costs I have been suggesting for the future.
  15. As usual I consider your cost assumptions a little bit too agressive. I don't see how they reconcile with the cost data we're given by the CN2. For example you derived a blended cpw for JKS in Q4 of 22-22.5 cts/W: https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/21-jinkosolar-jks/page/104/?tab=comments#comment-100656 That to me points to a China cost of around 21 cts with almost all of it being mono-PERC. I figure they produce mono wafers for 6.5, convert to cells for 5.5 and convert to modules for 9. Alternatively they buy mono-PERC cells for 12 cts and convert for 9 cts. Add 1 ct for southeast asia production and you are at 22 cts. Add 2 ct for shipping and insurance Add 4.4 ct for margin Add 7.1 ct for 20% tariff on end-price U.S. mono-PERC ASP after tariff step-down = 22+2+4.4+7.1=35.5 cts with 15%GM multi would be 2-3 cts lower bifacial at 24 cts cpw in SEA would reap around 30% GM at the above ASP. P.D. I think the 201 tariff is slapped ad valorem on the end-price and not how you suggest: https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/
  16. MVA

    Solar News

    "In October, BloombergNEF analyst Jenny Chase told PV Tech the expectation is the technology (bifacial) will power “almost all utility-scale plants” by the early 2020s. From Brazil to Denmark, Armenia and Singapore, the growing list of countries now hosting bifacial schemes is taking the technology to the world’s four corners. Already by 2024, installed bifacial capacity could pass 21GW worldwide, consultancy Wood Mackenzie believes." https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bifacial-wins-another-fighting-chance-as-judge-halts-trumps-crackdown
  17. Hey Pete Why was Enphase down so much yesterday? They are inverters and not panels. You would think the bifacial news would have no impact on market price.
  18. 2012/24 tariffs is Chinese made products - Lots of capacity was setup to skirt these tariffs. Chinese 25% tariffs are only Chinese modules. 201 is global solar modules except bifacial Section 201 is 25% for the next month then falls to 20%. Poly Perc Cells can be bought for $0.095. Add another $0.08 in module cost and you have a $0.175 cost. A $0.22 ASP with a 25% tariff is $0.275 with a $0.045 profit. Add a penny if you want to the costs and you still have $0.035 which is more than enough to pay for shipping and insurance. A $0.23 ASP with a 20% tariff is $0.276. That is a $0.055 profit. Mono Perc cells are $0.02-$0.025 more. Mono Perc Cells are $0.115-$0.123 Costs for mono wafers is around $0.065 Cell processing is around $0.04 potentially less The cost for the added bifacial processing is a couple pennies more With Gobal demand headed towards Bifacial it makes sense to modify capacity added to avoid the 2012/14 trariffs. By the way Nrel suggested a 3 cent added cost for Bifacial modules back in 2018. http://bifipv-workshop.com/fileadmin/images/bifi/denver/presentations/5__Woodhouse-_module_pricing_and_energy_yield_bifiPV2018.pdf That was when they were suggesting costs to manufacture less Rnd and Opex was in the $0.34 vs $0.37 range. Reality check is cost are now 30% lower so that $0.03 is likely closer to $0.02.
  19. Also they need to setup bifacial capacity outside of China because Chinese bifacial exports are still subject to the 201 and Obama tariffs. Don't see anybody investing a dime into a new cell line before we get more clarity on this next year.
  20. Could you share your math? Are you taking into account that shipments out of China are subject to the sum of three different tariffs that come up to 85%? https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/08/07/united-states-confirms-additional-25-tariffs-on-chinese-cells-modules/
  21. Wacker taking a massive €750M asset impairment thanks to Daqo & friends. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/wacker-chemie-blames-chinas-polysilicon-support-for-750-million-impairment Let's see if OCI copies the move...
  22. Twentyfold? That would take up all Wood Mackenzie demand forecast for non residential. That would be all commercial , ground mount and utility plants. https://www.woodmac.com/research/products/power-and-renewables/us-solar-market-insight/ But I get your point. Jinko is questioning Bifacial as whether it is just power generation from both sides, which could lead to just using a clear back sheeting and not bus bars. That would be a way around the 201 tariffs for all modules at virtually zero costs.
  23. Wood Mackenzie is forecasting 21GW of Bifacial demand by 2024.That may be very light. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/26/woodmac-bifacial-module-capacity-will-exceed-21-gw-by-2024/
  24. MVA

    Solar News

    I don't care about FSLR... But if you do, read this: "First Solar, the letter said, had “ongoing customer negotiations immediately disrupted” at the time the exclusion was originally requested." https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/06/solar-firms-sought-senate-help-on-end-of-bifacial-panel-tariff-exclusion/ I, personally, never going to touch FSLR...
  25. The question is how will exempting bifacial panels from the Section 201 tariffs affect the US market and First Solar in particular. Considering that the tariffs were set to expire in 2022, predictions about 2024 are irrelevant. If the US bifacial market grows from 500MW to 2GW as the article suggests in 2020, it doesn't seem like the impact will be all that great. The total world supply of bifacial next year is not that large and i am not sure companies will rush to convert production lines given how erratic the Trump administration is. The loophole didn't seem to affect First Solar all that much when it was first created in June.
  26. MVA

    Solar News

    Bifacial market to grow tenfold by 2024 https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/bifacial-2019/ "This will have a profound impact on the technology preference of U.S. developers, especially those in the utility-scale business. Bifacial module installations in the U.S. will experience sustained growth in the next five years, expanding from just over 500 megawatts in 2019 to over 2,000 megawatts in 2020, and rising to more than 7,000 megawatts in 2024." This article is from September 2019. Now, take into account new cost reduction (last couple of months) in PV manufacturing and tenfold can easily be twentyfold...
  27. I am not Klothilde and I don't think there is any need for spin, but I do think bifacial has been overhyped so far. 2.6 GW of bifacial was installed in 2018 and 5.4 will be installed this year. Virtually all of that has been in China. Despite the hype there isn't a whole lot of bifacial on the market and performance data is limited. I doubt too many developers want to be guinea pigs testing out the technology. Degradation is a very serious issue with PERC panels. There are solar farms in existence that have experienced degradation of 20% in only 2-3 years of operation. A year ago someone bought PERC modules from several vendors and found most of them had over 5% LeTID degradation in just a few weeks. Degradation with bifacial seems to be even worse. I would imagine most developers would rather build farms that they know will be profitable than build ones that might be slightly cheaper but could force them into bankruptcy because a new technology did not turn out to work as expected. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333211247_Physics_of_potential-induced_degradation_in_bifacial_p-PERC_solar_cells
  28. Mark

    Solar News

    In light of the JKS news this morning and then the trade news, has your opinion changed Klothilde? I mean even if this ends up going FSLR's way in 2020, the tariffs will still be lower and CN will have flooded the market ahead of that decision. Is there any positive spin you can put on this beyond they're sold out til 2021? Not challenging you, just seeking your opinion. I dumped half of my shares today. Contemplating dumping the other half too. Bloodbath for me.
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