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  2. Second 2019 Half Margin Expansion Could Benefit Canadian Solar Investors https://seekingalpha.com/article/4286991-second-2019-half-margin-expansion-benefit-canadian-solar-investors?app=1#alt2
  3. Yesterday
  4. Exactly. It doesn't have to happen in the next 3-6 months, and the more (little) ups and downs along the way, the better (for me, anyway). Heck, I make money if the stock price stays the same, as long as it continues these daily swings of +/- 1-dollar-plus. Just as long as it doesn't crater at some point. Good point about possibly needing more financing soon, though. I'll be sure to keep some powder dry if there's a significant pullback because of that.
  5. You both might be right at some point. I think the article was a bit too short term oriented but it supports Klothhilde and she did win first place for the 2Q Estimize revenue estimate. But Solar's frequent trading strategy is a great way to layer in a big position and I think over the next 18 months DQ could work its way up to new all time highs. I do this too and it is one of the best ways to make money. Institutional money likes this kind of a set-up also though DQ doesn't trade the volumes for easy liquidity. They may wait until the 4th quarter for some of the tariff uncertainty to clear up and to get a clearer picture of phase 4 financing. My concern is still the phase 4 financing. As explained above, some of us think that there could be a secondary to fill in the financing delta. Anytime from now through the middle of October depending upon markets and DQ's stock price could be a good time for them to pull the trigger. Then the 3Q earnings CC and the 4Q, 2020 outlook which should be free of any warts assuming the Poly ASP doesn't crater for some reason. Then the stock runs back up based upon 2020 and 2021 outlooks. Just a few ideas to think about.
  6. I think you are right with Japanese margins coming in higher than 30% now. There's one data point embedded in the Q3 guidance that points to GMs north of 40%. Taking midpoints they are guiding $795M in Revenue @25% GM which increases to $985M @ 28% GM if they manage to close the sale of one project on time. This implies an incremental revenue of $190M at 40.6%GM for the named project. Imo this can only be the 56MW yamaguchi project that's still on their books: https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-converts-golf-course-56mwp-solar-power-plant This stretches the icing from $200M to $270M. "...Total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $780 million to $810 million. Gross margin for the third quarter is expected to be between 24% and 26%, reflecting the positive impact of planned higher gross margin project sales primarily in Japan and the U.S. The aforementioned revenue forecast does not include the potential sales of a project that may be completed in the third quarter. If the transaction is closed in time, total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $970 million to $1 billion and gross margin between 27% and 29%..."
  7. Last week
  8. Thank you we just received $135 minus 5.30 charge or 129.70. 670.7 left, thank you
  9. I think that 30% GM is much to low. I believe their margins are higher pushing the costs to produce 10-20% lower than you are modeling. With future cost to construct decreasing, it is possible to offset that and maintain good double digit margins.
  10. Hi all, A site update for all the members. August 11, 2020, the current hosting plan expires. I have checked around and the plan with current provider is about $20 per month, including SSL certificate, a $100 value a year. The plan price is a 41% discount for 36 months, as of today. There is also a $70 for backup for the same period. Anyways the total including tax is about $800 Canadian and I am asking for collection today, a year ahead of the deadline. This is about $600 US. Donations button is available and can be used for this purpose I will update sparingly when a donation is received. Sometimes PayPal fails to deliver the message upon deposit, so send me a message or reply to this, if you make one. Thank you for your support and have a great year of trading and enjoyable discussions
  11. As I recall, the press release quoted increasing volumes (to record levels) and maintaining margins. That's the recipe for increasing profits. You don't need to earn it all in one quarter (aren't you the one who keeps reminding me the market is forward-looking?)--just maintain that trend for several quarters in a row. Q3 sounds like they'll be off to a great start. That trend also means I can buy any dips with confidence, as their underlying fundamentals are improving. That confidence is a key part of my frequent-trading strategy.
  12. To be more precise: I meant to say that the high-margin Japanese projects were winding down, not that all Japanese projects were winding down. In my understanding all Japanese projects >2MW with approved FITs have a first deadline of Sep 2019 to apply for grid connection and a second deadline of Sep 2020 to start commercial operation (see link). Should they miss the first or the second deadline the FIT will be slashed in half approximately. Thus I conclude that the maximum volume of high FIT (and thus high margin) japanese projects that CSIQ has available for monetization is a) the already operating projects (89.6MW) plus the COD volumes planned for the remaining of 2019 and 2020 (61.8MW+62.3MW). Assuming $3.4/W and a GM of 30% that leaves them with roughly $200M in GP that they can use to sweeten earnings over the coming quarters. Once that is used up it's sayonara my friends, meaning back to low margin systems business in Japan. http://taiyangnews.info/markets/japan-extends-timeline-for-solar-fit-cuts/
  13. Why two exclamation points? If I crunch the numbers I get only peanuts in EPS. And so does Investing Hobo in his article.
  14. Here is a recent article from Seeking Alpha regarding DQ and the 3rd quarter. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4286502-debottlenecking-hiccups-might-result-tepid-q3-daqo-new-energy#alt2
  15. I was quoted some Suntech Solar roof tiles back around 2010. The company that bid them came back 2 weeks later and said they were on back order and did not know when they would be available. I changed to a different company and got Sunpower Modules instead. Then I found out that the Suntech Panels were having manufacturing design and quality issues that was causing roof fires. You always have to be careful with new Tech.
  16. Fortunately, in science we learn even from those experiments that fail. I'm still waiting for the roof tiles with integrated solar panels. And the windows (yes, that means with translucent solar panels). THOSE will be game changers (again).
  17. First Solar road built 3 years ago in France is crubling and had a section reomved https://www.yahoo.com/news/photos-show-worlds-first-solar-221432968.html Photos show the world's first solar road that's turned out to be a colossal failure because it's falling apart and doesn't generate enough energy
  18. I've been jumping in and out of SQQQ TQQQ QLD UDOW DXD,. I sold out my short at -750 yesterday and took a long position that I sold this AM. It has felt like gambling and risky and the volatility is moving on certain news cycles. I am heading into vacation for a week so I will be out of the market for a bit and sitting in cash.
  19. Congratulations on your CSIQ trading! I've been using ENPH and DQ, as they're more volatile, but I completely agree about not wanting to be overconcentrated in a single name. You just never know what can happen. But I am truly happy for you that it worked out well! Let's see what JKS reports. CSIQ and DQ certainly paint a rosy picture for the future. Is it possible solar is FINALLY on the way to SUSTAINABLE profits and growth?
  20. Indeed it has... I've been in and out of CSIQ 30 times this month so far. I ended up adding a lot of shares on the selloff yesterday. Way more than I was comfortable with and way more than I'll ever do again. But jeez, there was a lot of writing on the wall for this move. BUT, never again will I own so much of one position, even if I see that same writing again. Given the overall market volitility, it felt more like gambling than I'm comfortable with. But damn did it work out well.
  21. I did a short term trade yesterday on JKS buying in late yesterday for a couple thousand shares. Sold it today for a 3.5% pop. I tried to get some CSIQ before earnings as well at $20.21 but my bid never got hit. Darn. Trading the volatility has been good so far this past couple of weeks.
  22. Last quarter could have been better, but it certainly was not as bad as some feared. And the outlook for the next quarter is great!! I'm happy. I'll be buying (and trading) any dips. Executed the first one yesterday and today already.
  23. Agreed that IRRATIONAL exuberance is always a bad idea when investing. But today's report gives plenty of reason for RATIONAL exuberance.
  24. Right now CSIQ the core MSS is running over 22% gross margins. This does not include Systems sales from Japan. As far as Japan projects, they have 90MW already in operation for sales. They also have an additional 120MW to be completed in 2019 and 2020 along with 187MW in 2021 and beyond. These numbers are around 40-50MW above the inital Japan projects MW schedule from a year ago. That indicates most of the projects of 150MW a year are still the higher FIT. That is a nice buffer for the next 2 to 3 years that will likely add and extra $150M in gross a year at a minimum.
  25. I would caution against irrational exuberance. I would recommend looking at module margin without the CVD reversal. And keep in mind the Q3 icing comes from Japan systems sales which are slowly winding down. Greetings to all.
  26. Great numbers, forward guidance is excellent. They have raised revenue guidance and MW shipments significantly. 25% margins guided for Q3 puts Q3 on a greater gross profit path than Q2 even with lower revenues than Q2. Their margins on their core MSS business is mid 22%. That is excellent margins for modules and should be sustainable with the core wafer ASP dropping.
  27. Great report! And pretty good estimates, Klothilde, nice job. Eager to listen to the call. I held more shares than I hoped to going into today, so hopefully futures turn around and we can get rewarded for a pretty solid quarter and outlook.
  28. What's the commentary here you guys? They keep repeating poly prices will go up but they never do. Cash is down, debt is up. Also what's up with Roth being the only analyst on the call? Their in-house banker is the only one asking questions, that's kind of dangerous imo. Greetings from a rainy beach.
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