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  1. Today
  2. Trading Solars

    Yesterday I sold all my SEDG and moved all my capital to Daqo. Technically the, stock has gone through a prolonged period of accumulation and I am expecting a minimum 100% return in the next 12 months. Fundamentally, this is the most profitable solar company, making 8$ EPS. In two years, with 50% additional capacity and 7.5 $/KG they should be making around 10-12 EPS. Additionally, I believe there's a good chance for Poly prices to remain high because I believe the market is underestimating the forthcoming growth of solar PV. Higher crude oil prices will lead to huge growth of EVs which will in turn propel demand for solar, which will in turn propel demand for Polysilicon etc... I also have my eyes on CSIQ, if the stock can break above 18.14 and hold, I will be adding an additional 50% margin position. The charts in CSIQ also suggest accumulation, in some sense CSIQ is now where DQ was 3 months ago, trying to break the upper limit of it´s monthly trading range. If CSIQ can break higher from here and there isn´t another push back into the range, the accumulation campaign will have been completed and I´d expect large returns over the next few months. .
  3. JA Solar (JASO)

    I am moving this thread to M&A. Not sure how many believe this is not happening. When is the vote? I assume it will be quick.
  4. JA Solar (JASO)

    I have been trading mostly not making higher prices but not losing. Never was interested in JASO. This is a done deal. 32% of voting shares are on buyers' side. They can buy shares on the open market. I look at this as good for the JKS and CSIQ, they are trading higher than when TSL was here. It somewhat a selection reduction hence more will own the shares. That cannot be bad.
  5. Yesterday
  6. Beyond Solar

    How about that SQ... unloaded everything at 44.75. Looking to reload on weakness
  7. JA Solar (JASO)

    You had a very good hunch there. I wish you had bought some. Anyway, I saw that it opens at $7.11 when the offer of $7.55 was out. I almost bought more. Why would someone sell at $7.11 when an offer of $7.55 was announced?
  8. JA Solar (JASO)

    Even worse. I hope he doesn’t get away with it.
  9. JA Solar (JASO)

    PB 0.35. Way below paid-in capital. The chairman knows how to make a shameful offer. I hope he doesn’t get away with it.
  10. Trading Solars

    Sold DQ bought NEP.
  11. Daqo (DQ)

    The great cost leadership fundamentals of the company is the same as this summer when it could be picked up in the teens. To pay double now (which means double PB) after a quick surge for the same fundamentals just because poly market price bounced back up seems a bit late on the puck. In my view it's better to invest in the leaders when PBs are low and just ride them up when PPSs cycles with ASPs. In other words it is better to buy pre appreciation and sell post appreciation. For these companies the simple Buffet rule can be applied, buy when PB is low and sell when it is high. Many of these companies were not long ago offered at sub 0.5 PBs. Not anymore.
  12. Solar News

    Or we could have just bought Enphase. Holy cow... what is going on with that stock?? Evidently something changed... I am reading their 10Q trying to see it. GM up a little. I guess people are loving the idea of selling their product through JKS. And loving their new CEO. But it seems they have the same issue with being nearly out of money.
  13. Daqo (DQ)

    (Benjamin Graham in memoriam) E1 = Equity, Book Value E2 = Earning x 10 E3 = Market Cap If you speak about "Equity, Book Value" you must speak about RoE on the contrary you say nothing at all 10 x RoE x Equity Book Value = EPS x 10 RoE 10 = Economic Profit = 0 and P / B = 1 and P / E = 10 RoE 20 = Economic Profit > 0 and P / B = 2 and P / E = 10 100 years ago the New York Stock Exchange discovered that it was more convenient to talk about Earning Earning_1 = Earning Earning_2 = Owners Earning, FreeCashFlow Earning_3 = Economic Profit --- Benjamin Graham Number = P/B x P/E Normal Benjamin Graham Number = 20 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/graham-number.asp
  14. Solar News

    I think that's what we're all waiting to see. It's been a long time coming, to say the least.
  15. JA Solar (JASO)

    BTW that is 10% gain in my estimates for JKS and CSIQ.
  16. JA Solar (JASO)

    Unbelievable I was right JASO used own money to get off the exchange.
  17. JA Solar (JASO)

    What a timing! They bring down the price to 6.86 from 8+++ in 2 days then announce the definite agreement for all cash offer @ 7.55 If this is not manipulation what is?
  18. Daqo (DQ)

    Shen updated Daqo to $50 Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen raised his price target for Daqo New Energy to $50 from $45 after the company delivered a Q3 beat/strong Q4 guide driven by ASP strength and management's debottlenecking efforts, which have resulted in higher than expected effective capacity versus nameplate. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on the shares. Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2643146
  19. Daqo (DQ)

    DQ currently trades above the book value, and it is about the same place where FSLR on that metric. I own the stock as it has a good reaction potential based on $2 rise in poly in Q4, but the company remains a small business with limited resources and visibility. Highly cyclical and not that much excitement in the PR. $70 would be nice, but for 2018 the prediction of two analysts is for the company to make less money and fewer EPS. Sometimes metrics mean little when people just check someone else's opinion. What is your timeline to reach that level, I am discarding the goal of 2030.
  20. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Recurrent joins BoD of SEIA https://www.seia.org/news/recurrent-energy-joins-seias-board-directors
  21. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Indian project is reported as sold by Mercom, no price given https://mercomindia.com/canadian-solar-solar-project-maharashtra/
  22. Solar News

    It seems like you cannot decide whether it is easy or hard. The scale means everything and financial capacity is the most important. CSIQ hires people to install modules, the installation is the least qualitative item in the whole enterprise, yet peculiar enough FSLR sees itself to win hearts buy improving expediency of two installers. It takes a bit more than a plumber butt to build solar plants, and if it was easy 11% GM of $1.50 is a lot better than 11% of 30 cents, so why not do it? The capital intensity, the ability to create more value, is a business of finesse. When FSLR drops the plant in a quarter, all the investors pee their pants in euphoria. When they have sold their modules only, again nothing else but shortsightedness, forced to sell the stock. No, solar plant building is excellent, and it will get even better in time. It will get smaller in size, more plug, and play, overall cheaper and even more technology-based. Improvement will not stop and the global presence, allowing a name to walk in a room and collect 50% of projects like ENEL does, and they do not even make washing machines, makes all the difference in a world. Yes, there is a lot of people making modules, which by virtue of your logic is also bad business, but there are fewer those who build solar plants, like really ready to do it, with all bells and whistles. Combine two and you have a recipe for success, which means money.
  23. Daqo (DQ)

    10 x sustainable EPS is a fair Value for a industrial enterprise 6 x EBITDA - 1 x Debt + 1 x Cash is a fair Value for a industrial enterprise I am planning to hold until I see a fair Valuation $ 70 now or $ 200 in 2030 Daqo New Energy have room to growth in the long run (-2030-2040) I'm puzzled with DQ Price
  24. Solar News

    Siemens already had a foray into solar and got burnt big time cuz they bet on a horse called CSP. Since then they've taken PV into their EPC portfolio. PV plants suck not because renewables have lousy prospects but because it's hard to make money with PV systems under competitive conditions. There's simply too many people who can do it. There ain't big economies of scale to gain from a global rollout since lots of material and labour (cabels, racks, etc.) have to be sourced locally anyhows. And lastly a lot depends on mastering the local intricacies of politics and bureaucracy. Solar City had to learn the hard way that even a national roll-out of an installation business doesn't make much sense. Think of it this way: Would it make sense to set up a global business that specializes on the installation of washing machines? Sure PV requires more BOS than a washing machine, but in essence with a PV system you're not doing more than installing solar panels. You are attaching them to a structure to make sure they won't get blown away and then you plug in the cables to the grid to get the juice out.
  25. Solar News

    Siemens cuts jobs in fossil sector explaining the shift due to the growth of renewables. If they only knew how solar plants suck! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-siemens-power-restructuring/siemens-to-cut-6900-jobs-to-tackle-flailing-turbines-business-idUSKBN1DG257
  26. JA Solar (JASO)

    I just had a creepy idea. Subsidiaries of Jinglong supply wafers and Jinglong is the parent company and home of the Chairman. Nobody has paid enough attention to the fact that JASO invested $148M in inventory, but I continue to muse over it. Why would JASO dedicate to sink 26% of its cash into inventory this time a year? Well, if Jinglong is the seller, JASO just handed half of its capitalization in cash for the market cap of $330M. Jinglong owns 16% and Baofang owns 16% himself, so 32% will vote yes.
  27. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Nice, Looking at the numbers provided we are talking about 35% generation efficiency or about 2.67 times more than Japan has to offer. The land in Mexico is probably 1/10th or perhaps 1/15th of what it would cost in Japan. The efficiency of modules in 2020, could be firmly at over 19%%, in a range of 390 to 400W (last being the 20.1%). The ASP of $0.26 per watt, would require costing of $0.23 per watt and margin of 12%. Considering that Longi is yapping about 340W 60 cell unit at 20.5% we are not talking fantasy here. I did IRR on the cash flow the amount from generated electricity, assuming this to be an average. IRR of 6%, which is common for solar, requires $0.80 per watt installation. I am assuming they did their costing and that is 20-year cash flow. CSIQ average is actually $0.022 per kWh bid or 26% higher than ENEL's $0.0177. Jinko lost the bid.
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