You are not logged in.

explo

Intermediate

  • "explo" started this thread

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

  • Send private message

1

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 2:41am

Something's spiking

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

larryvand

Intermediate

Posts: 218

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 6

  • Send private message

2

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 5:45am

Any ideas why that wasn't reflected on Pvinsights and EnergyTrend yet? I know it was not a full week but the spike started on the 16th so it was at least 5 days (16th-20th). Next Wed the 27% we will definitely have a full week of these prices.

explo

Intermediate

  • "explo" started this thread

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

  • Send private message

3

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:07am

Timing could be the main reason, but I think it is also because they poll different markets (many look at markets in Taiwan for some reason). Normally poly price would be quite global, but now it will be pulled up inside China and pushed down outside China based on how the tariff change the landscape of supply cost and volume. There will be a lot of low cost poly available outside China, not so much inside China. The global poly demand (ingot furnaces) are mainly inside China.This tariff has impact on the whole industry. This causes a fatal disconnect between where cheap poly is needed and where it is available. The US cell tariff was nothing in comparison. Honestly I don't like this huge chock the global PV market, but SOL owning poly capacity in China is a major risk reduction for that specific . Not owning cell capacity in China was nice, but this is more critical.

Klothilde

Intermediate

Posts: 172

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Thanks: 18

  • Send private message

4

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:11am

Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

Boss

Trainee

Posts: 82

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 4

  • Send private message

5

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:14am

It could be that this price is incl. VAT tax. With out the 17% VAT the price is around $18.

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 597

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

  • Send private message

6

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:37am

Digitimes
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130220PD207.html

explo

Intermediate

  • "explo" started this thread

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

  • Send private message

7

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:57am

It could be that this price is incl. VAT tax. With out the 17% VAT the price is around $18.
Still the 10% spike seen on the China trades was not seen on latest pvinsights. Regarding VAT I made the same assumption, but I think Eystein concluded that VAT might in fact not be included.

explo

Intermediate

  • "explo" started this thread

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

  • Send private message

8

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 7:00am

Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

I saw that discrepancy too. Have not done the pvinsights T2 price consistency check yet.

Klothilde

Intermediate

Posts: 172

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Thanks: 18

  • Send private message

9

Thursday, February 21st 2013, 10:28pm

Another day of spiking...

thecomeup

Beginner

Posts: 4

Date of registration: Feb 17th 2013

  • Send private message

10

Friday, February 22nd 2013, 1:59pm

This could lead to big jump on weekly spot pricing next week....could get interesting

greensolar

Trainee

Posts: 94

Date of registration: Sep 30th 2012

Thanks: 4

  • Send private message

11

Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:16pm

poly $22kg

price of poly in Chine now $22kg using xe.com [img][url]http://graph.100ppi.com/?w=550&h=332&c=p&id=463&state=english[/url][/img]
greensolar has attached the following files:
  • poly.png (18.59 kB - 18 times downloaded - latest: Feb 23rd 2013, 10:03am)
  • price.png (15.13 kB - 14 times downloaded - latest: Feb 22nd 2013, 8:05pm)

This post has been edited 14 times, last edit by "greensolar" (Feb 22nd 2013, 3:55pm)


Pop2mollys

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 15

  • Send private message

12

Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:36pm

That's is DRAMATICALLY higher than average spot last week on pvinsights... Of course I'm sure pvinsights polls several countries. There has been no mention on the wires of this spike in Chinese poly just some daily spot price links which several members on this board have provided.... Next week could get interesting

eysteinh

Trainee

Posts: 144

Date of registration: Dec 9th 2012

Thanks: 10

  • Send private message

13

Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:57pm

There is a big disconnect between pvinsight and 100ppi.com I agree. It will be interesting to see if this is the case next week also.

Ofcourse these are trade prices offered but do not say if the transactions have been done. Perhaps here the difference lies? Pvinsight will catch up the trend once some transaction on these prices offered goes through.

explo

Intermediate

  • "explo" started this thread

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

  • Send private message

14

Saturday, February 23rd 2013, 3:50am

Yes if the disconnect remains after next weeks price reports then we can rule out that it was due to timing.

Pop2mollys

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 15

  • Send private message

15

Sunday, February 24th 2013, 6:12pm

Just verified by solar zoom... Poly surging the last week

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/t…HjaM2fS_zDlWuVw

Pop2mollys

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 15

  • Send private message

16

Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:05am

Soaring....


http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

Klothilde

Intermediate

Posts: 172

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Thanks: 18

  • Send private message

17

Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:12am

But it says it won't rise beyond 200 yuan or $32/kg

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 597

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

  • Send private message

18

Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:22am

I am posting solarzoom report hopefully tomorrow price is up to 140RMB but that includes 17% VAT, trading volumes are limited

Pop2mollys

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 15

  • Send private message

19

Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:27am

Awesome thanks odyd!

eysteinh

Trainee

Posts: 144

Date of registration: Dec 9th 2012

Thanks: 10

  • Send private message

20

Monday, February 25th 2013, 1:22am

Exellent. And good to know the 100ppi.com was usefull demonstrating trade prices then later shown in real transactions.

Social bookmarks

.

New Member

SummerNbp(Today, 8:24pm)

JulyWebb(Feb 26th 2013, 11:19am)

Icarus(Feb 21st 2013, 2:21pm)

GreenEarth(Feb 19th 2013, 2:43pm)

thejaq(Feb 19th 2013, 5:19am)

Statistic

  • Members: 50
  • Threads: 454
  • Postings: 2,718 (ø 17.76/day)
  • Greetings to our newest member: SummerNbp

.