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Something's spiking

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explo

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 2:41am

Something's spiking

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

larryvand

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 5:45am

Any ideas why that wasn't reflected on Pvinsights and EnergyTrend yet? I know it was not a full week but the spike started on the 16th so it was at least 5 days (16th-20th). Next Wed the 27% we will definitely have a full week of these prices.

explo

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:07am

Timing could be the main reason, but I think it is also because they poll different markets (many look at markets in Taiwan for some reason). Normally poly price would be quite global, but now it will be pulled up inside China and pushed down outside China based on how the tariff change the landscape of supply cost and volume. There will be a lot of low cost poly available outside China, not so much inside China. The global poly demand (ingot furnaces) are mainly inside China.This tariff has impact on the whole industry. This causes a fatal disconnect between where cheap poly is needed and where it is available. The US cell tariff was nothing in comparison. Honestly I don't like this huge chock the global PV market, but SOL owning poly capacity in China is a major risk reduction for that specific . Not owning cell capacity in China was nice, but this is more critical.

Klothilde

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:11am

Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

Boss

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:14am

It could be that this price is incl. VAT tax. With out the 17% VAT the price is around $18.

odyd12

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:37am

Digitimes
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130220PD207.html

explo

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 6:57am

Quoted from "Boss"

It could be that this price is incl. VAT tax. With out the 17% VAT the price is around $18.
Still the 10% spike seen on the China trades was not seen on latest pvinsights. Regarding VAT I made the same assumption, but I think Eystein concluded that VAT might in fact not be included.

explo

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 7:00am

Quoted from "Klothilde"

Hmm... I'm not sure yet how much can be told from this curve. If you look at the interval 11/23 to 12/23 the curve shows a drop of almost 14% in price, whereas the pvinsights spot price for T1 poly only dropped around 3% during that time. Unfortunately I don't have the T2 pvinsights poly prices to see how well this curve correlates to pvinsight T2. Can somebody look it up?

I saw that discrepancy too. Have not done the pvinsights T2 price consistency check yet.

Klothilde

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Thursday, February 21st 2013, 10:28pm

Another day of spiking...

thecomeup

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Friday, February 22nd 2013, 1:59pm

This could lead to big jump on weekly spot pricing next week....could get interesting

greensolar

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Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:16pm

poly $22kg

price of poly in Chine now $22kg using xe.com [img][url]http://graph.100ppi.com/?w=550&h=332&c=p&id=463&state=english[/url][/img]
greensolar has attached the following files:
  • poly.png (18.59 kB - 18 times downloaded - latest: Feb 23rd 2013, 10:03am)
  • price.png (15.13 kB - 14 times downloaded - latest: Feb 22nd 2013, 8:05pm)

This post has been edited 14 times, last edit by "greensolar" (Feb 22nd 2013, 3:55pm)

Pop2mollys

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Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:36pm

That's is DRAMATICALLY higher than average spot last week on pvinsights... Of course I'm sure pvinsights polls several countries. There has been no mention on the wires of this spike in Chinese poly just some daily spot price links which several members on this board have provided.... Next week could get interesting

eysteinh

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Friday, February 22nd 2013, 3:57pm

There is a big disconnect between pvinsight and 100ppi.com I agree. It will be interesting to see if this is the case next week also.

Ofcourse these are trade prices offered but do not say if the transactions have been done. Perhaps here the difference lies? Pvinsight will catch up the trend once some transaction on these prices offered goes through.

explo

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Saturday, February 23rd 2013, 3:50am

Yes if the disconnect remains after next weeks price reports then we can rule out that it was due to timing.

Pop2mollys

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Sunday, February 24th 2013, 6:12pm

Just verified by solar zoom... Poly surging the last week

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/t…HjaM2fS_zDlWuVw

Pop2mollys

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:05am

Soaring....


http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html

Klothilde

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:12am

But it says it won't rise beyond 200 yuan or $32/kg

odyd12

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:22am

I am posting solarzoom report hopefully tomorrow price is up to 140RMB but that includes 17% VAT, trading volumes are limited

Pop2mollys

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 12:27am

Awesome thanks odyd!

eysteinh

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 1:22am

Exellent. And good to know the 100ppi.com was usefull demonstrating trade prices then later shown in real transactions.
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