hi guys, you know my style. i really dont like risks so I have used the current stock market price movement to get out of solar for now. as you know my only holding was csiq in any case.
and as you also know my golden rule is to never put more than 25% into one sector.
I might be totally wrong in going on the sideline now but I need some clear answers before I can get into solar again.
1. I want to understand the china ruling on poly
2. much more important. I want to know the EU ruling. sure, csiq especially has alot of presence elsewhere but my experience tells me that if we get a bad ruling all solars will again be thrown in one basket. this always happened since tsl ipo. they move in tandem always. some more up or down but same trend.
3. I want to see if china is honest and letting capacities go or not. we need a resolution in china or prices will stay flat for quite some time.
so in short. we had a really good price appreciation which allowed me to exit at an ok price. I now want to understand the 3 key risks better before I am willing to take the investment.
yes, I know that the chance to miss a train now on a booming china and japan market is there. the risk to be hit hard by EU is probably equally high. it is a gamble. I am not a gambler at all. I hate when I am vulnerable to political and similar decisions.
I actually also want to see if some larger legacy comps enter the arena as well and act as an distractor. this risk is though more mid-term and one I would have been ok to accept. but still interesting.
glta.
Thursday, January 17th 2013, 6:36pm
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