December Data

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 264

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Tuesday, January 8th 2013, 10:41pm

December Data

I got few words on deceleration of shipment volume for December. Interesting numbers and locations. For those who purchased data, those who have been chugging along, things seem to be going well into a direction, with some companies planning to sell a lot to exotic places. South Africa has showed up as the destination as well. Also some details are showing for OEM work from CSIQ and cell shipments to Canada have some visibility. In all China has to be a big play for some of the players otherwise they will not meet it their guidance. Once again for those who are purchasing data this is a lot clearer.

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explo

Intermediate

Posts: 192

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Wednesday, January 9th 2013, 1:28pm

Interesting, when do you think the report will be available for purchase?

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 264

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Wednesday, January 9th 2013, 2:43pm

I am thinking in the area of the 25th of Jan. Now it could be later as Jason does a lot of sorting out and that takes couple of days.

I will have notes added to the next issue of it, with some of the observations made by Jason based on declaration. Looks interesting.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 264

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Yesterday, 7:19am

According to IHS the Q4 combined shipments are 11GW. We have captured 2GW in two months and do not include China. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ihs_predicts…e_in_2q_in_2013 I got to be honest I do not know where is this number coming from. It would be interesting, as they are speaking about "leading Chinese companies" to understand what they mean. In short I do not see this.

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explo

Intermediate

Posts: 192

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Yesterday, 7:37am

Let's see, we have 2 GW in two months exported from China. Naively linear extrapolate to 3GW in three months. China market is big for the Chinese companies in Q4, so assume only 50% goes to exports in Q4. This means the Chinese produced 6 GW in Q4. Assume that on modules Chinese players have 60% of market (its higher on wafers), then we coluld have 10 GW globally shipped in Q4 as an estimate extrapolated from the export data with crude assumptions. So the export data does not have to contradict the 11 GW global shipments and Chinese increasing their share in Q4, but I agree the number seems big. If true and combined with the low utilization in 2H12 the health of inventory levels should have improved.

Sidenote, I think the finer detail patterns rather than the macro patterns is where the China export data contribute the most, especially when looking at trends over many months. I look forward to see the December numbers.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 264

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Yesterday, 7:45am

Well I did somewhat take this approach but in the statement they have said couple of things which alarmed me. They have said leading Chinese manufacturers shipped more than was expected. Unless they were expecting less than guidelines, this would make sense, but as you are aware there are certain parts of the picture, which are not going to happen. I think that 50% for China assumption is good, but this means that they shipped 3GW of modules into domestic market, this is more than they shipped in 2011 and first three quarters combined. I think Solarzoom would noticed. Lastly going with this pace, who would ship the 4GW? This is a massive figure, I am not seeing this to be honest. They also talk about 10GW of installs I believe. I approached them to give me the idea of the breakdown. I am rooting they are right, but their calculation is a combination of many sources and estimates. Sounds like we have more concrete data, but less attractive one.

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Klothilde

Beginner

Posts: 23

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Yesterday, 8:51am

quick and dirty Q4 installs breakdown:

China: 3.0
Germany: 1.4
Italy: 1.3
US: 1.2
Japan 0.8

Total of these countries: 7.7 GW. Leaves 2.3 for ROW. Seems feasible at least.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 264

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Yesterday, 9:05am

Dr de Haan replied to me and called own report a forecast and being a model. He referred to using qualitative confidential data from Chinese suppliers. Well, we will see.