SolarPVInvestor Forums

Around 10-15% of China-based polysilicon makers may resume production soon

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Jackie Chang, DIGITIMES [Friday 11 January 2013]'

The China government is likely to announce anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on polysilicon imported from Europe, the US and South Korea in the first quarter of 2013, which will significantly decrease imports. As a result, 10-15% of China-based polysilicon makers are expected to resume production, according to Taiwan-based makers.

For firms that are still producing polysilicon, some of them plan to raise capacity utilization to full after Lunar New Year in February. According to some tier-one polysilicon makers, orders have been healthy and the current capacity utilization rates are around 50-60%. In addition, tier-one vertically integrated solar firms have to use part of the polysilicon output for in-house solar wafer production, so supply has been tight.

Tier-one polysilicon makers are aiming to increase price to to their production cost levels at US$18-20/kg.

Solar makers in China pointed out that so far more than 90% of domestic polysilicon firms have stopped production. Even if 10-15% of these makers resume production, they are most likely large-size cost-effecient players while small- and medium-size firms will continue to suffer because the production cost of most polysilicon firms in China is around US$30-40/kg.

According to China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, China-based polysilicon firms produced around 65,000 tons of polysilicon in 2012, representing an on-year decrease of 20%, but imported polysilicon increased by 23% on year, reaching 85,000 tons. The self-sufficiency rate of China-based polysilicon has fallen below 47%, said the Alliance.