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METI has just come out with December figures for the Japanese market. Below is my attempt at putting together the data available (there are data gaps) on installations and approvals figures since the introduction of the FIT in July last year:



Figures on monthly approvals come from METI. Installations are more tricky. Here METI provided the figures for October and November (241 MW and 272 MW). For the months Jul-Sep I simply display the JPEA quarterly total of 627 MW divided by 3. The December figure is the difference between the JPEA quarterly total (1003MW) minus the October and November figures from METI (241 & 272MW). I don't use december data from METI because it appears inconclusive to me (maybe someone who speaks japanese can look at the data in the link provided)

As you can see approvals of new installations are exploding and have reached 1.4 GW in December (annual run rate of 17 GW). This is good and bad news at the same time. If approvals hold steady in the months to come and installations go up to just half the approval volume then we are already looking at 700 MW of monthly installations and an annual run rate of >8 GW of installations. The Japanese market is IMO set to blow away even the most optimistic and aggressive forecasts out there this year. The flipside of the coin is the increased chance of political intervention to cool the market later this year (drastic FIT cut or market cap).

What this means for Chinese exports: Japanese suppliers have around 3.6 GW of module capacity (c-Si and CIGS) worldwide, so they can accommodate around 300 MW of monthly installations at the most. I don’t count silicon thin film capacity (~1.3 GW), since I don’t think it holds a chance at 10% efficiency or less. Looking at the December installations figure of 490 MW it becomes evident that demand has already exceeded Japanese manufacturing capacity by leaps and bounds and that going forward shipments by non-japanese companies will be the driver behind japanese market growth. Should installations climb from 500 to 700 in the next months this already equates to a doubling of shipments from non-japanese companies, with the bulk of it probably going to chinese companies.

Bottom line: Shipments of non-japanese comps to Japan are going to soar over the next months, IMO doubling very quickly from their current level.

Any other views on this?

Meti monthly installations and approvals reports:
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/11/2012…20121116005.pdf
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/12/2012…20121214002.pdf
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/03/2013…20130313002.pdf

Thanks.

I agree that we are heading towards a combined 20 GW between China and Japan. If it doesn't happen in 2013 it will with a few months delay.

For me it's just hilarious how some analysts out there can be off that much. Look at Solarbuzz yesterday forecasting only 11 GW for China, Japan, and India combined in 2013. Come on... They should know where to look up the numbers for each of the markets...
http://www.solarbuzz.com/news/recent-fin…g-npd-solarbuzz

Anyhows, it also has its advantages to have access to some data that the analyst community obviously doesn't know about yet (ppi100 silicon figures, export data, or japanese JPEA/METI data). Gives us an early view on what's to come and an opportunity to go bargain shopping.