Where have the modules gone?

Klothilde

Intermediate

Posts: 172

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Thanks: 18

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 11:48pm

Where have the modules gone?

I'm sick and tired of looking for the 260W Virtus II modules. Where the heck have they gone? All I can find in the shops are 250W and sometimes 255W modules.

Is it because:
- I haven't looked enough
- The modules are so fantastic that they are sold out
- Hardly any are produced?

Can somebody PLEEEASEEE point me to the modules? I would be SOO dissapointed if the 260W were just make-believe...

http://pvdepot.com/solar-panels.html?manufacturer=665
http://www.segen.co.uk/Installer/Manufacturer/49
http://www.solarsystems-usa.net/solar-pa…a/#.US2qYDCG1fE
http://www.alma-solarshop.de/27_renesola

Go to the top of the page

uchsteve

Beginner

Posts: 3

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Yesterday, 12:27am

http://eng.sfe-solar.com/pv-modules/rene…ii-solar-panel/

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Yesterday, 1:12am

Check version of product sheets. It shows when the retailer last stocked up. Renesola's poly module continuously made significant improvement last year.
http://store.proinso.net/europe/product_…tupois2onqkb166

Go to the top of the page

Klothilde

Intermediate

Posts: 172

Date of registration: Nov 19th 2012

Thanks: 18

Yesterday, 6:52am

I have to admit that I'm slowly growing a bit sceptical about SOL's communicated average Wattage of 255 for Virtus II HP multi modules. I'm starting to think that the 250-260W is not a natural production range but a marketing range that excludes less efficient product.

The reason I stumbled on this thought is that I was researching record cell and module efficiencies (latest Green table here) and found that the current multicrystalline record is 18.5% for a 60 Cell module and an aperture area of 14661 cm2 (Q-Cells). This equates to a 271W standard multi module. Now if you think that the most powerful standard multi module ever produced in the history of mankind is 271W I find it extremely hard to believe that SOL is cranking out 260W modules by the megawatts.

So I checked the german PV boards and found that there were plenty of projects using 250W and 255W Virtus II but not a sinlge one using 260W. Also the online retailers seem to carry 250W and 255W way more often than 260W (I saw your finds).

Of course this is just an initial doubt on my mind and the picture is everything but conclusive. It may also very well be that SOL is shipping most of the 260W modules to Japan where they can reap an attractive premium. Just wanted to bounce this thought off people here to get some feedback, will keep my eyes open...

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Yesterday, 7:13am

I think we need to consider the timing as well. In Q3 Virtus II (or simply poly) took the leap to the 250w-255w range. Then in Q4 this was extended to 250-260w. Most of what is seen out there in Q4 was probably born in SOL's factories in Q3 or earlier.

To me it is not very important if they have a lot of 260w. The big premium jump seems to be at 250w. It does not make economic sense, but psycologically it seems to be a quality stamp to have 250w. In some sense it might make indirect economic sense, 'cause it seems that when you get the conversion efficiency up to that level other properties like reduced efficiency drop in low light conditions and high temperatures also result. So purchasers know that 250w requires a certain crystalline structure quality level that automatically improves normal operating condition performance impacting properties.

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Yesterday, 3:53pm

Tier and power premium

http://www.solarverkauf24.de/pv-module/renesola/?count=10

Go to the top of the page

littleguyintucson

Beginner

Posts: 47

Date of registration: Feb 4th 2013

Thanks: 2

Today, 7:21am

Quoted from "explo"

Quoted from "larryvand"

SOL's cash cost for Phase II is $15/kg per SOL. The $18/kg is NOT cash cost.

Stop bashing with false info. ;)

No, but seriously, that is the info from Q2 CC, but in Q3 CC they dropped the bomb, which is one of the main reasons I'm so bullish on SOL. They discovered they could cut electricity consumption with 40% saving around $3 cash cost. The whole plant has been down from November to January, not just to complete Phase II, but to integrate Phase I&II for full cost benefits. Their new cost guidance was very clear on Q3 CC. The combined Phase I&II will produce 10 kT @ $18 with depreciation being $5. That means cash cost for combined Phase I and II is $13. This is my breakdown (the upgrade has add some capex from previous $7 for Phase I and $2.5 for Phase II) :

Phase I: 4 kT @ $13 cash + $8 depreciation => $21 fully loaded
PhaseII: 6 kT @ $13 cash + $3 depreciation => $16 fully loaded
Combo: 10kT @ $13 cash + $5 depreciation => $18 fully loaded

For wafers they have 2013 cost at 8 cents cash and 3 cents depreciation => 11 cents fully loaded. All in all it is 15 cents cash and 6 cents depreciation to make a wafer in 13Q2. If they deliver on their guidance..

After this achievment with improved cost target every quarter the past year, I have no doubt that their poly plant in Sichuan will be more than nice to have in the future.

TSL will have 10KMT capacity expected to be in full production by end of Q1. At 5 grams per watt that is 2000MW or below 400MW of current capacity. Current capacity fully utilized is only 67% of current needs at 5.4 grams. They are going to need by the end of 2013 early 2014 another 5000MT plant operational to meet late 2013 early 2014 production of 3GW+. when they do this the depreciation drops from overal costs for 15KMT by $1.40 to a loaded cost of $16.60 or less depending on efficiency and yields.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 597

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Today, 7:31am

This is a SOL post, has been moved to SOL thread.

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Today, 7:56am

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

TSL will have 10KMT capacity expected to be in full production by end of Q1. At 5 grams per watt that is 2000MW or below 400MW of current capacity. Current capacity fully utilized is only 67% of current needs at 5.4 grams. They are going to need by the end of 2013 early 2014 another 5000MT plant operational to meet late 2013 early 2014 production of 3GW+. when they do this the depreciation drops from overal costs for 15KMT by $1.40 to a loaded cost of $16.60 or less depending on efficiency and yields.

You mean SOL not TSL, right? Your example assumes 8 $/kg capex for the new 5 kT. I'm happy if the 30 $/kg for Phase II can be repeated for another 6 kT. Depreciation would be cut $0.75 and thus fully loaded cost would be 17.25 $/kg for the 16 kT.

Go to the top of the page

littleguyintucson

Beginner

Posts: 47

Date of registration: Feb 4th 2013

Thanks: 2

Today, 8:44am

Yes you are correct, my math was backwards. if they add 5000MT on the 10KMT they depreciation droms 1/2 of the different between $5 and $3 or $0.667. So cash cost is reduced by $0.667/kg