TSL guiding a big 2013

Pop2mollys

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 15

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 5:41am

TSL guiding a big 2013

First Quarter and Fiscal Year 2013 Guidance
For the first quarter of 2013, the Company expects its shipment volume for PV modules to be between 420 MW and 430 MW.
The Company expects its overall gross margin for the first quarter of 2013 will be low single digit in percentage terms, taking into account wafer and cell requirements outsourced to third party suppliers . Such guidance is based on the average exchange rate between the Euro and U.S. dollar from January 1, 2013 to February 26, 2013. For the full year of 2013, the Company expects total combined PV module shipments and system deliveries between 2.0 GW and 2.1 GW, which would represent an increase of 25.5% to 31.8%, respectively, from 2012.

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 6:31am

Increased short-term debt with 185m. More than 800m in unrestricted cash now. Hmm, what are they planning?

Go to the top of the page

Boss

Trainee

Posts: 82

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 4

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 6:38am

Just said ASP will increase. double digit margin in 2nd half.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 6:56am

$74.5M positive cash flow. $0.10 apparent poly cost, and 0.51 including under utilization. 21.5% mono tech. Explo I think Trina is going n-type, hence the short -term borrowing bump. This is a lot of money, so maybe they are buying someone. Guidance is positive. $80M extra cash from receivables. $14.5M doubtful account from September when they shipped 30MW to India, may still come back. That $45M is coming back in Q1 from Q3 write off. I would say not too bad. I think they had 60% utilization, and will stay this way in Q1. I suspect about 350MW in inventory end of Q4, so low utilization may have an effect on Q1 processing.
projects, system revenue at 20% in 2013., bold statement. More systems than projects perhaps.

Go to the top of the page

larryvand

Intermediate

Posts: 216

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 6

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:00am

Based on Trina's guidance for 2013, if my calculations are correct for Renesola doing 2GW modules in 2013, SOL could match or even pass TSL in PV module shipments in 2013. And unlike SOL, TSL has ZERO poly manufacturing capacity yet its market cap is 60% higher.

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:03am

Are they clarifying Q4 ASP (I'm unable to listen right now)?

Go to the top of the page

explo

Intermediate

Posts: 515

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 22

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:06am

Quoted from "odyd12"

Explo I think Trina is going n-type, hence the short -term borrowing bump. This is a lot of money, so maybe they are buying someone.

That's is interesting. They only have 5 inch mono right now. Panda now at 280w are narrowing the gap to SPWR.

Did ECN meeting with Trina? It was Suntech and some others if I remember correctly.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:06am

Interesting point, but where is SOL going to get the money for 800MW expansion while still tinkering with their polysilicon plant? Poly pricing is not going anywhere and 140RMB is with 17% VAT, meaning under the water or break even for SOL. 0.10 per watt poly TSL paid is 18.18 per watt a 1.70 below what SOL will make by end of the 2013 blend cost.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:08am

Quoted from "explo"

Did ECN meeting with Trina? It was Suntech and some others if I remember correctly.

There was no need. They have own research and dealings with Singapore and New Wales for making cells.
I think this is their mono market answer.

Go to the top of the page

larryvand

Intermediate

Posts: 216

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 6

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:10am

Quoted from "odyd12"

system revenue at 20% in 2013., bold statement. More systems than projects perhaps.

I know what projects are but what are systems? What does TSL refer to as "systems"? And by bold statement you mean 20% is a big chunk of their revenues for systems? First I need to understand what TSL means by systems. Thanks.

Go to the top of the page

littleguyintucson

Beginner

Posts: 47

Date of registration: Feb 4th 2013

Thanks: 2

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:17am

Quoted from "odyd12"

$74.5M positive cash flow. $0.10 apparent poly cost, and 0.51 including under utilization. 21.5% mono tech. Explo I think Trina is going n-type, hence the short -term borrowing bump. This is a lot of money, so maybe they are buying someone. Guidance is positive. $80M extra cash from receivables. $14.5M doubtful account from September when they shipped 30MW to India, may still come back. That $45M is coming back in Q1 from Q3 write off. I would say not too bad. I think they had 60% utilization, and will stay this way in Q1. I suspect about 350MW in inventory end of Q4, so low utilization may have an effect on Q1 processing.
projects, system revenue at 20% in 2013., bold statement. More systems than projects perhaps.

Can you explain their numbers? They had processing costs of $0.54 in Q3 and now $0.51 in Q4 yet margins are 1.8% in Q4 based on what first appears to be just under a $0.72 ASP. That places SI somewhere around $0.18/watt or $32/kg. Yet they have no inventory writedowns. What is the pricings of their long term contracts?

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:18am

Quoted from "larryvand"

First I need to understand what TSL means by systems. Thanks.

Their trinamounts, ASP was at 0.73 per watt which tells me they selling a lot of those trinamount systems.
Another resilient point to Chinese. Half in interest of SunPower payments on $400M more debt.

Go to the top of the page

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 162

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Thanks: 7

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:20am

Gordon's up now... visibility on onetime charges? What does he care, he thinks the Earth is flat.

Interesting reply to his second question about YGE increasing market share through price reductions. TSL repeated the theme that growing market share at the expense of GM is not sustainable. Good to hear them say that.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "spiritcraft" (Feb 26th 2013, 7:29am)

Go to the top of the page

Boss

Trainee

Posts: 82

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 4

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:29am

Gordon was right for the last 2 years. I think the questions were good on 1 time charges,because every quarter they have 1 time charges.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:29am

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

Can you explain their numbers? They had processing costs of $0.54 in Q3 and now $0.51 in Q4 yet margins are 1.8% in Q4 based on what first appears to be just under a $0.72 ASP. That places SI somewhere around $0.18/watt or $32/kg. Yet they have no inventory writedowns. What is the pricings of their long term contracts?

Processing cost internal 0.61 includes non at 0.51 and poly at 0.10. or $18.18/kg. 0.73 per watt is a kit revenue (average).
Inventory costs (value) moves down and get adjusted, hence inventory effects. Inventory write offs are for obsolete materials (none of these). My calculation is they have sold at least 55MW produced in Q3 so that adds around $4M to cogs as the inventory effect not including the raw materials reductions. Procurement of kits, wafers, shipping costs of those to Trina, is the rest and the amo, which includes under utilization. at 60% (my estimate) it could be as much as 4 cents. So I think Snake was estimating once 0.10 per watt of mount in ASP, so I would say 0.06 to 0.08 now and perhaps .04 to 0.06 cost is included in this.

Go to the top of the page

2 registered users thanked already.

Users who thanked for this post:

eysteinh, littleguyintucson

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 162

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Thanks: 7

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:31am

Quoted from "Boss"

Gordon was right for the last 2 years. I think the questions were good on 1 time charges,because every quarter they have 1 time charges.

He was right by chance only... his thesis was that solar would never be commercially viable. He was right on share price dropping but it was really by chance. It's like saying it is going to rain on a sunny day... one day you will end up being right.

I wasn't saying that the question wasn't valid but why bother when you don't believe in PV in the first place?

Go to the top of the page

Boss

Trainee

Posts: 82

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 4

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:35am

Odyd Poly cost is $18.5 (5.4 gramm)

Go to the top of the page

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 162

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Thanks: 7

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:39am

A side note... 99K on the ask at $4.52... swallowed up in an instant... what was that?

Go to the top of the page

littleguyintucson

Beginner

Posts: 47

Date of registration: Feb 4th 2013

Thanks: 2

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:41am

Quoted from "odyd12"

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

Can you explain their numbers? They had processing costs of $0.54 in Q3 and now $0.51 in Q4 yet margins are 1.8% in Q4 based on what first appears to be just under a $0.72 ASP. That places SI somewhere around $0.18/watt or $32/kg. Yet they have no inventory writedowns. What is the pricings of their long term contracts?
Processing cost internal 0.61 includes non at 0.51 and poly at 0.10. or $18.18/kg. 0.73 per watt is a kit revenue (average).
Inventory costs (value) moves down and get adjusted, hence inventory effects. Inventory write offs are for obsolete materials (none of these). My calculation is they have sold at least 55MW produced in Q3 so that adds around $4M to cogs as the inventory effect not including the raw materials reductions. Procurement of kits, wafers, shipping costs of those to Trina, is the rest and the amo, which includes under utilization. at 60% (my estimate) it could be as much as 4 cents. So I think Snake was estimating once 0.10 per watt of mount in ASP, so I would say 0.06 to 0.08 now and perhaps .04 to 0.06 cost is included in this.

Quoted from "odyd12"

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

Can you explain their numbers? They had processing costs of $0.54 in Q3 and now $0.51 in Q4 yet margins are 1.8% in Q4 based on what first appears to be just under a $0.72 ASP. That places SI somewhere around $0.18/watt or $32/kg. Yet they have no inventory writedowns. What is the pricings of their long term contracts?

Processing cost internal 0.61 includes non at 0.51 and poly at 0.10. or $18.18/kg. 0.73 per watt is a kit revenue (average).
Inventory costs (value) moves down and get adjusted, hence inventory effects. Inventory write offs are for obsolete materials (none of these). My calculation is they have sold at least 55MW produced in Q3 so that adds around $4M to cogs as the inventory effect not including the raw materials reductions. Procurement of kits, wafers, shipping costs of those to Trina, is the rest and the amo, which includes under utilization. at 60% (my estimate) it could be as much as 4 cents. So I think Snake was estimating once 0.10 per watt of mount in ASP, so I would say 0.06 to 0.08 now and perhaps .04 to 0.06 cost is included in this.

Thank you. KIT ASP at $0.06 less is $0.67 and $0.145Si costs or $26/kg inventory. A $0.65 ASP is $23/kg. A $0.63 is about $19/kg. The only numbers that look right are the $0.65 or $0.63 ASP.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 594

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 45

Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 7:46am

Quoted from "Boss"

Odyd Poly cost is $18.5 (5.4 gramm)

Is that what was said I am not listening? I use 5.5g in last 6 months, I guess it is time to adjust for this saving.
30% cash added and 13% debt. $48M paid in payables. Explo that short borrowing I think is aimed at buying converts at $82M. There will be no expansions but upgrades to cell lines. I am happy as I predicted their investment in cell technology, few weeks ago, and happy they see utilization of all of their tech. If you think that the best Q was Q2 for selling 418MW and Q1 shows up with 420 to 430MW (and hope they got this one right) this one is coming around (solar) and TSL is in the game.