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Pop2mollys

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 6:26pm

EU likely to impose tariffs only on solar cells only... Same as US... Digitimes

Big winner would be SOL...

Hasn't hit wires yet.... Just released on before it's news on Digitimes.... Makes sense they would do exactly same as US...

If this is case buy SOL hand over fist

Will post when article hits wires

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Monday, February 25th 2013, 6:48pm

Big winner would be SOL...

Hasn't hit wires yet.... Just released on before it's news on Digitimes.... Makes sense they would do exactly same as US...

If this is case buy SOL hand over fist

Will post when article hits wires



And look at that all of tawain solars green and climbing.... While all other solars red as well as markets

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 12:23am

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130226PD200.html

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Boss

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 2:22am

That does not mean Europe won't put a tariff on wafer,cell and modules.
You have to wait till Europe makes a decision.
It would be great if cell only.

explo

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 2:38am

That does not mean Europe won't put a tariff on wafer,cell and modules.
You have to wait till Europe makes a decision.
It would be great if cell only.

I'm think the same thing. Digitimes is Taiwanese, right? There always seems to be a Taiwanese cell maker perspective on their reporting.

Is the following really accurate?

"But solar makers believe it is likely for Europe to adopt the same
strategy as the US's to levy tariffs on solar cells alone because
China-made solar wafers account for 90% of the global market and if
wafers are subject to the high tariffs, Europe may face severe solar
wafer shortage."

"If solar modules get taxed in Europe, whether alone or with solar cells,
there will be supply shortages and rising end market prices of solar
modules in Europe. This is because China is the biggest producer of
modules with the lowest production costs."

Wouldn't tariff on Chinese cells cause the same magnitude of supply-chain bottlenecking? Is there so much difference in the amount of cell capacity outside China compared to wafer and module?

I have a big delivery of dry powder arriving for use today (unlisted holding aquired), but I was thinking of using it mainly for CSIQ to diversify, but if there is significance to the Digitimes report, then again SOL seems to be the tariff certain option checking two important box "have precious China poly? -> check", "have not toxic China cell capacity? -> check" and I might continue betting mainly on SOL for 2013-2014 until political situation is more clear. LDK did sell their China cell capacity..

Let's see what mood Trina put the market in today.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "explo" (Feb 26th 2013, 3:54am)


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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 2:57am

Way to keep a level head Boss...as you noted, this was not news it was just a blog. And as explo pointed out, written by a pro-Taiwan, anti-Chinese publication. You can’t treat these blogs like they’re news...

Not only does no-one outside the Commission know what will be covered, but even IF or how much or for whom...

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 3:45am

Digitimes has a very good reputation... We will see how it plays out...

Think about it you honestly think they would be any harsher than the US when in this case there is even more outcrys for those supporting the Chinese... No freckin way

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 4:45am

What I do know for sure, is that by betting on CSIQ, I don't have to hope and pray for huge tariffs (a bad thing for the entire industry btw...) to artificially increase the prices of some or all parts of the supply chain, so that the company can be profitable.

Sounds a little like another company we all know....

larryvand

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 5:16am

If that digitimes news is true, it will be huge news for Renesola and bad news for companies like CSIQ. I would look to extricate myself of all other solars that do not have poly capacity and that have large Chinese cell capacity and put the money to work in SOL. It's like a perfect storm is happening for Renesola. They are the only solar that seems to have made all the right long term decisions. They have by far the biggest upside out there for 2013 and beyond.

Pop2mollys

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 5:26am

If that digitimes news is true, it will be huge news for Renesola and bad news for companies like CSIQ. I would look to extricate myself of all other solars that do not have poly capacity and that have large Chinese cell capacity and put the money to work in SOL. It's like a perfect storm is happening for Renesola. They are the only solar that seems to have made all the right long term decisions. They have by far the biggest upside out there for 2013 and beyond.
Exactly SOL is on a sweet spot being the only solar not to have tariffs in US and most likely the same will happened in Europe. With processing costs dropping rapidly, in house poly, and very high efficient modules they really offer huge upside potential with little risk compared to others who buy poly and might subjected to high tariffs

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 5:48am

CSIQ will be profitable in 2013 regardless of the EU outcome (and I don't have to spend my days hoping and praying for global tariffs and trade wars...).

Just curious what the EPS predictions for SOL are this year?...I haven't seen any yet from the SOL pumpers...the analysts ones are all red.

I'd like to see the calc done with both probable ($22-$24 poly or less) vs. fantasy ($30 poly) in 2013...

Anyone????

Boss

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 5:57am

My EPS for 2013 for SOL is $0.50 +-$0.05 on ASP module $0.67 and wafer $0.27.

larryvand

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 6:36am

You said that for CSIQ back in 2012 that they will be profitable in 2012. You were wrong then and you can easily be wrong now. So when you say "will be profitable in 2013" you really mean "should be profitable in 2013".

And for that "fantasy" $30 poly, please point me to a post of yours that predicted $15 poly in 2012 back in 2011. In other words, nobody knows. If enough demand is there poly could go to $40 and $50 for all anybody knows.

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Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 4:28pm

My EPS for 2013 for SOL is $0.50 +-$0.05 on ASP module $0.67 and wafer $0.27.
Thanks for the reply Boss...I respect that you have the courage of your convictions. I think your EPS expectations are very reasonable.

explo

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Yesterday, 7:53am

Another Digitimes spin on tariffs: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130227PD202.html

Pop2mollys

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Today, 1:38am

"However, solar manufacturers believe that the Chinese manufacturer of solar silicon wafer shipments accounted for 90% of the global market, where European imposition of high tariffs on silicon, Europe is bound to face a shortage of solar wafers. Therefore, Europe is likely to emulate the U.S. practice of solar cells only impose punitive tariffs."


http://translate.googleusercontent.com/t…Ma-t99K33XC1eMg

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