SolarPVInvestor Forums

Classic JA - guide low and beat.

Quoted from "greensolar"

great
fourth quarter of 2012 are expected to be in the range of 480 MW to 500 MW


http://www.4-traders.com/JA-SOLAR-HOLDIN…-Four-16246055/

Yes there is the good, the bad and the ugly?
The good is this turns their inventory and should lower average costs going forward
The bad based on a bump to 70% modules shipment, they will be pushing a lost of $1 a share
The ugly, if they take more reserves for long live asset impairments.

These are domestic sales big time.

It seems to be a trend that those with domestic focus are beating guidance. SOL already guided 635 to 675 MW, so they probably saw the huge China Q4 demand ahead of some peers. I can see two reasons for JA shipping 25% more than they expected. One: they directly supplied the China module demand. Two: they got a lot of cell tolling orders from companies like SOL. SOL guided for around 70 MW Q4 China shipments of modules, up from none in Q3 and total module shipments up more than 100 MW from Q3. That should be easy tolling order for JA to claim. SOL is doing 40 MW projects in China as well in Q4 (another 6 MW is developed in Romania), so even more cell tolling might be required than their module shipments indicate. LDK sold of most of their cell capacity and might toll, GCL might toll cells and modules with different partners, but likely they would toll the modules as well from JA if they toll cell from them.

It probably doesn't get better than 12Q4 for JA from the demand volume perpective. China demand will be much less in Q1 and Q2.

Quoted from "explo"

It probably doesn't get better than 12Q4 for JA from the demand volume perpective. China demand will be much less in Q1 and Q2.

China's demand in H1 is expected to be at 5GW, and depending on no changes to FiT rates can be more. I think they will be rolling good this year.

Quoted from "odyd12"

Quoted from "explo"

It probably doesn't get better than 12Q4 for JA from the demand volume perpective. China demand will be much less in Q1 and Q2.

China's demand in H1 is expected to be at 5GW, and depending on no changes to FiT rates can be more. I think they will be rolling good this year.

I thought I read it would be back half loaded..?

If China won't lower FiT after February Q2 may have on its own 5GW, I am told. Remember they expect 10GW this year, I would say add 20% to it.

The last batch of Golden Sun has a June 30 deadline, so Q2 is going to be very good. I still expect a stronger H2 than H1 though.

@odyd: You expect 12 GW from china but don't think we'll hit 35 GW globally?

"NPD Solarbuzz expects 75% of the projected 7GW of demand in 2013 to occur in the second-half of the year."

So 1.75 GW in 2013H1 compared to 3.5GW in 2012Q4 according to NPD Solarbuzz. But I guess that is quite uncertain due to policy dependence.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/npd_solarbuz…grow_50_in_2013

I am more inclined to 33GW, about 10% more than what 2012 was.
I am not comfortable give you numbers for the full global outcome, but my points are as follows:
I look at the shipments recorded and guided and I see about 12GW (module only) for the 11, add another 6GW for the rest of the Chinese so that is 18GW, the other came from someone else (12GW). I think that if you had a full capacity from the 11 you are looking at 18GW, this will reduce other Chinese to 3GW so call it 21GW, and 12GW of others will not grow. There is also statements from YGE and JKS, 50% growth and 30% of capacities. They may only deliver current capacity shipments but you got to think about why they are saying it. I am not including this. This could turn another 2GW in a hurry.

Quoted from "explo"

"NPD Solarbuzz expects 75% of the projected 7GW of demand in 2013 to occur in the second-half of the year."

So 1.75 GW in 2013H1 compared to 3.5GW in 2012Q4 according to NPD Solarbuzz. But I guess that is quite uncertain due to policy dependence.

China predicts 10GW , Solarbuzz predicts 7GW. I tend to believe Solarzoom analysts over the Solarbuzz ones. Their 9GW on India is thumb-sucked number, I am not seeing anything like that even low 3.7GW looks like a fantasy.

Solarbuzz today:

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/npd_solarbuz…levels_for_2012