CSIQ...Past/Present/Future (2012/2013/2014+)

explo

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Yesterday, 1:01pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

Question, how is that result translates to sales of their modules?
Do you have any measurement that gave the company called Jinko in this case, the advantage?
It happens that Jinko, Renesola and Hanwha sell their modules at the lowest ASPs.
It would mean those fractional differences in this test as in many others have done thus far very little to overall take on ASP?

It's just a test. Beside's publishing the report on the blog, SOL actually issued a press release about it. Here's a quote from it to put the numbers into context:

"Performance ratio represents the actual amount of solar power produced
in comparison to the maximum possible power output. With more than 170
different modules from over 100 manufacturers, the PHOTON study is
widely regarded as one of the largest and most accurate of its kind. The
complete results are available in the December issue of the PHOTON International magazine."

(Just to provide a source: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/preview/phoe…1500&highlight=)

I think CSIQ previously have scored high in similar test so I wouldn't make too much of it, but the 88% does not look very good an might have created some chatter, regardless of validity.

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ILOVEPV

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Date of registration: Jan 28th 2013

Yesterday, 1:06pm

nanofrogfish CSIQ 2013-2014 revenue/earnings prediction

it is nice to read so bold predicition. I'm puzzled that a share price is still so low. With EPS $3.6 a forward PE is less than 2. Any idea why?

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explo

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Yesterday, 1:27pm

Quoted from "nanofrogfish_spf"

It’s just a pretty obvious pattern of attacking CSIQ and pumping SOL at every opportunity.

I think you are missreading me here, I've focused on CSIQ, not SOL, in this thread. The panel quality question came up and there's been a big recently conducted and published test by Photon. I just shared the result for CSIQ in that test. How is that not a contribution to a discussion about CSIQ's outlook?

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odyd12

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Yesterday, 2:05pm

Quoted from "explo"

It's just a test. Beside's publishing the report on the blog, SOL actually issued a press release about it. Here's a quote from it to put the numbers into context:

The question is valid and results have minimal contribution today, so I would say none. Time will tell but it is one of the tests, and many tests show high efficiencies (or output) from companies I have never heard of.

Quoted from "explo"

I just shared the result for CSIQ in that test. How is that not a contribution to a discussion about CSIQ's outlook?

guess your question could be taken as a point. It could simply have no impact on anything at all today. We ELPS has excellent scores but it is not a module which has a demand, with exception of Japan perhaps. I think we are all ahead, when we are discussing efficiency, as a selling medium. We are not there yet, companies are not there yet. Not to the scale. I must admit that Virtus II is a part of revolution, which has not taken off quite yet in my opinion. I hope technological revolution will take place, as to the degree this will be the differentiation we are all looking for.

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nanofrogfish_spf

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Yesterday, 2:17pm

Quoted from "ILOVEPV"

it is nice to read so bold predicition. I'm puzzled that a share price is still so low. With EPS $3.6 a forward PE is less than 2. Any idea why?

Excellent question PVLover...I wish I knew the answer.

Just a month or 2 ago, I had a much lower 2013 EPS estimate. This was because I had a much lower GM modeled for non-utility sales. which was a drag on the project profits and overall OM (just wasn't sure when the ASP free-fall was going to stop). Now that it looks like things are stabilizing, and demand predictions are rising quickly, I can see a big improvement on that part of the business...I've now modeled this with increasingly better margins, but still only with a breakeven 4Q (non-utility scale GM covers all operating costs). Believe it or not, there's also upside to this number if they can actually turn some type of profit on this part of the business at any point in the year. So this may be part of it (estimate revisions by many haven't happened yet...still based on the falling ASP model)

My estimate is based on this pricing stabilization remaining throughout 2013 (prices can even gradually drop, but the free-fall is over, and if they stay steady or even rise a little all the better), and coupled with most of the earnings being primarily in the 2H, many of these funds may just still be in a wait and see, or nibble only mode. I'm sure there's many other factors at work also, including the cloud of negativism and denial that still covers much of the industry, and uncertainty about the upcoming EU decision. I do think some funds have been slowly accumulating though based on the charts, and I just noticed that 1 of the 2 analysts covering CSIQ (lol), recently changed their red to black on 2013 EPS...one is now at 15c and one is at $1.77. btw, with only 2 analysts (and 4 listed on their website), they could just be flying under the radar screen because no-one is really covering them!

As far as the project revenues and GM's go...it's all very visable and well documented...you can easily verify all of this yourself...they just need to break even on those module sales by the end of the year!

I'm betting on my own DD and calculations, and that at some point the fundamentals will win out...and that's why I believe this is just the beginning of a multi-year run for CSIQ...

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explo

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Yesterday, 2:26pm

odyd, I think the Photon ranking is not about how much power a module produces. I think the ranking is about the difference between how much power it produces compared to how much it was supposed to produce according to its power rating. It's more of a brand trust test than a technology test.

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spiritcraft

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Yesterday, 2:39pm

I had to go check after reading the above Nano... you are absolutely correct. CSIQ seems to be the only Chi-Solar to have even one analyst predicting a profit. It was an -$0.80 loss a week ago. I of course hope the $1.77 analyst is correct as they are one of my four Chi-Solar holdings. So who are the analysts?

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odyd12

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Yesterday, 3:05pm

Explo, I got to be honest. I did not care if this was a test how they tasted. There are many tests out there, measuring many things and I am glad companies meet expectations more or less. The biggest test is selling modules. Does CSIQ sell modules? Yes. If any of those tests point to loss of sales, I will pay more attention. Thus far being the best in any of those has not increased sales for anyone (judging that some of the winners of those are nearly bankrupt or went bankrupt). That is the real meaning of my reply.

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explo

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Yesterday, 4:23pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

Explo, I got to be honest. I did not care if this was a test how they tasted. There are many tests out there, measuring many things and I am glad companies meet expectations more or less. The biggest test is selling modules. Does CSIQ sell modules? Yes. If any of those tests point to loss of sales, I will pay more attention. Thus far being the best in any of those has not increased sales for anyone (judging that some of the winners of those are nearly bankrupt or went bankrupt). That is the real meaning of my reply.

I agree. Topping the test does not mean anything. Coming in low probably does not mean anything. Panel sales does. The test does not rank companies, it only tests 170 modules from 100 different providers under real use for a long time and to see how many kWh they produce and then compare it to get the pecentage that's the basis for the ranking.

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nanofrogfish_spf

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Today, 8:44am

Quoted from "spiritcraft"

I had to go check after reading the above Nano... you are absolutely correct. CSIQ seems to be the only Chi-Solar to have even one analyst predicting a profit. It was an -$0.80 loss a week ago. I of course hope the $1.77 analyst is correct as they are one of my four Chi-Solar holdings. So who are the analysts?

I don't look too often, so I too was surprised to finally see black there again. Of the 4 analysts they have listed here, my guess is that the recent revision up to $1.77 came from Nomura, since they're the ones that just put out a buy on CSIQ a couple weeks ago with a $6.90 PT. Note that TSL has 13/14 analysts weighing in (19 for 2013 full year). I'm guessing that's the only reason it trades higher than CSIQ right now...based on fundamentals it should be a lot less (or more accurately, CSIQ should be a lot more).