According to IHS (NYSE: IHS), global capital spending by producers of PV modules, cells, ingots, wafers, and polysilicon will rise by 42% in 2014 to reach $3.3 billion. IHS previously forecast an increase of 37% for the year. The new forecast also calls for 32% growth in 2015 to reach $4.3 billion, a significant increase from the older forecast of 5% growth, according to the IHS PV Manufacturing & Capital Spending Tool. 

Also some insight into capacity expansion:

Currently, PV manufacturers are starting to ramp up production, with many already running at full capacity. California-based solar panel manufacturer SunPower recently announced it plans to increase its solar cell production capacity by 25%, or 350 megawatts, by 2015. 

 

However, according to IHS, a distinction must be made between short-term events now unfolding and strategic developments percolating for the long haul. 

 

“Some companies have engaged in contract manufacturing of products from Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers to meet sharp increases in demand,” Campos said. “However, sources from multiple Tier 1 players, as well as from smaller companies, have verified that this is a short-term, small-scale tactic. Long-term, large-scale increases in production during the next few years will be accomplished via increases in internal capacity.”

Personally, I think China will have a great year in 2014. What ever gap is left over in DG should be picked up in central power stations. And starting from H2 14, DG should really take off.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/10/31/solar-energy/morocco-solar-project-gets-950m-german-loan

Morocco has secured a 654 million euro loan ($A950) from German state-owned bank KFW to part-finance two solar power plants totalling 300 megawatts worth an estimated 1.7 billion euros.

 

Tenders for construction of the two plants, one of 200 megawatts (MW) and the other of 100 MW, near the southern city of Ouarzazate are expected in the next weeks, Mustapha Bakoury, the head of Morocco's solar energy agency Masen, said on Wednesday at the Desertec industrial initiative (Dii) Conference held outside Rabat. Masen said consortia led by Spain's Abengoa, GDF's International Power and ACWA Power had been pre-selected for the 200 MW (Noor II) tender.

 

The three groups are also pre-qualified for the 100 MW (Noor III) tender, along with another consortium led by France's EDF .

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/10/31/solar-energy/dawn-new-pv-landscape

Some key points of the article are cited below.

Therefore, what will differentiate 2014 from previous years is that the supply-chain now has a far more global reach, in terms of targeting short-term opportunities in markets that have no predetermined annual cap in place. This significantly opens up the ability to drive higher levels of PV installations than seen in the past.

Therefore, while grid-parity and end-market elasticity will certainly have a role to play at the regional level, global end-market demand sizing during 2014 will be influenced far more by the effectiveness of suppliers to produce the 50 GW of modules to the market that upstream data is suggesting, and the rate to which project developers or installers can fulfil short-term opportunities across a wide range of countries.

For example, end-market regions and application segments (whether rooftop or ground-mount) will quickly expose the supply constraints at the mono/multi stage, or the efficiency and panel ratings within each of these technology types. Tightness in supply is therefore likely to emerge at the technology level, with segments demanding mono modules or high-efficiency multi wafers being firmly under the spotlight first. Whether mono demand can be shifted to multi, or for how long tier 2 (tolled) capacity can supply market tier 1 panel specs is yet to be determined.

And on the traditional weakness of first calendar quarter:

As a consequence, the historic production declines (and inventory build) seen at the start of the calendar year are not likely to be repeated next year. One can imagine a 6-month period during Q4’13 and Q1’14 that is essentially an extended year-end quarter, with strong calendar year-end Q4 pull from China and the US transitioning quickly to strong fiscal year-end pull during Q1 from Japan and the UK. The importance of this occurring during Q1’14 when 2013 annual returns are released cannot be underestimated.

I recall some people had intentions to sell their holdings around the turn of year. Time to rethink that strategy probably?

Total amount of project capitals   410700 Ten thousand U.S. dollars

 

 

Expected investment payback period   8 years

 

Project name   50,000 t/a Poly Silicon Project Investment mode   cooperation,wholly-owned,Other

Comment. 8 year payback. 4,1 billion usd cost. Seems like a joint venture. 50000 mt + 4,1 billion = 82$/kg. This is a simens project i think as FBR has lower capex. (50$/kg) But the payback time of 8 years seems to mean a high net profit margin.  I am really wanting to say this is REC FBR but I am not 100% sure yet. who else would build 50000 MT now?  What I can also say is that during my interview of the investor relations guy at REC they said they are considering a joint venture for FBR B. It would fit very well with having now shifted out REC solar for cash that they have an easier time to lend for a big project in China.  It would also be much easier for china-us to make a deal if now China had access to cheap EG quality FBR. 

Also note the number of employees correlates very well with REC FBR. They had 500+ for 16000 MT and now 21000 for 50000 mt (0.03 vs 0.04 per MT) 

also note REC recently repurchased bonds (21 october.)

Austin's management team said the 63-year-old singer had been treated in hospital Friday morning for the asthma attack in combination with respiratory infection. She returned to her hotel later Friday to rest, but she was unable to physically perform at her concert scheduled for Beijing on Friday evening. Her Saturday night concert in Shanghai went ahead.

Her manager, Barry Orms, said Monday that Austin, as an asthma sufferer, would have been "affected by the amount of pollution." He said that it wasn't their goal to place blame, and that "Patti has expressed our belief that the Chinese government can be a leader in this very important issue."

On the morning ahead of her concert Friday, Beijing's air was visibly polluted, with the city's environmental monitoring center warning children, the elderly and those with respiratory illnesses to reduce outdoor activity.

China's major cities have some of the world's worst smog. The government was long indifferent to the environment as it pursued economic development, but has begun launching some anti-pollution initiatives after mounting public frustration.

Last month, China's Cabinet released an action plan that aims to make a small reduction in the country's heavy reliance on coal to below 65 percent of total energy usage by 2017. According to Chinese government statistics, coal consumption accounted for 68.4 percent of total energy use in 2011.

There is no going back here. China needs to step up!

 

Google, which is part owner in several clean power projects that sell electricity to California’s utilities, said Thursday it has agreed to invest $103 million in another solar power plant in California that will send electricity to San Diego Gas & Electric when completed in 2014.

The 265.7-megawatt project, called Mount Signal Solar, is under construction in Imperial County, located in the southeastern part of the state. Google is going in on the project with Silver Ridge Power, the former AES AES +1.66%Solar.  The two companies declined to disclose their ownership stakes in the project.

The trend cannot be more obvious, IMHO. It would be foolish not following the lead.

http://stock.gucheng.com/201310/2550052.shtml

文琳：数据最能说明问题，今年半年报，向日葵的光伏发电业务毛利率高达49.97%，海润光伏更是高达59.07%，而*ST超日的光伏发电业务毛利率则高达65.70%。再来看本周表现突出的华北高速，只是因为出资2.25亿元涉足光伏电站，本周大涨近30%，而公司拟收购的江苏徐州丰县光伏电站，预期2014年的销售净利率可近45%，看看号称暴利的茅台，销售净利率不过50%.

The same article also mentioned about inverters with GM as high as 41%. 

 

《红周刊》：我看了一下，目前科士达的光伏逆变器项目已建成投产，不仅收入快速增长，且毛利率高达41.43%  

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/italy_and_spain_reprimanded_by_eu_for_failure_to_comply_with_renewables_dir?utm_source=newsnow&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=newsnow-feed

Italy and Spain have fallen foul of the European Commission’s renewable energy rules, with both countries named in the European Union’s monthly report on infringements to obligations under European law.