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2014 Earnings and Price Targets

Sep 02 2014 09:19 PM | sunnysky in Solar Stock Investing
JKS TSL CSIQ JASO

Estimates and Price Targets for selected Chinese Solar Stocks
I did the 14H2 estimate for JASO, the last of the CN4. I also revised my TSL model by reducing interest expenses. I'm posting all the results here for your reference. To be consistent with my first post on this topic with results for CSIQ and TSL, I'm using the closing prices on Aug 26th for the calculation of returns.


CSIQ TSL JKS JASO
2014 EPS $4.16 (H1=$1.02) $1.35 (H1=$0.51) $2.98 (H1=1.00) $1.14 (H1=$0.33)
PE Used 15 15 15 12
2014 PT $62 $22 $45 $14
Projected Return 76% 80% 53% 49%

Notes
  • PT is based on stated PE on 12-month trailing EPS. Different PEs may be used to suit your own view.
  • CSIQ and maybe surprisingly along with TSL (with the assumption of some plant sales) have the momentum going to the end of 2014. JKS and JASO, on the other hand, may be stories for 2015 when China demand picks up and accelerates, JKS's yieldco goes for IPO, and JASO's transformation gets close to the finish line.
  • Lastly, the above is just my personal view based on assumptions which may not be correct or come to fruition.

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2 Comments

Photo
odyd
Sep 13 2014 06:11 PM

I am wondering if there is potential for the update on the CEDR data or did you already adjusted earnings for it?

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sunnysky
Sep 13 2014 07:46 PM

I'm waiting for further confirmation from CEDR when the the data for Aug and Sept become available.Global export volume distribution and the trend of declared prices help to adjust both shipment and gross margin in the forecast model.

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