odyd

Solar News

19,381 posts in this topic

14 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

This seems like big news:

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/12/21/eu-commission-recommends-two-year-extension-of-solar-tariffs-against-china-mip-to-be-lowered/

EU extends solar tariffs for 2 years.  Is this bad for the CN solar stocks?

It's probably good for CN4 who have all (?) already withdrawn from the MIP deal after globalizing their manufacturing base, because it is bad news for second tier CN companies who have not.

Edited by explo
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China to plow $360 billion into renewable fuel by 2020

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-renewables-idUSKBN14P06P

China will plow 2.5 trillion yuan ($361 billion) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country's energy agency said on Thursday, as the world's largest energy market continues to shift away from dirty coal power towards cleaner fuels.

Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's economic planner, said in its own five-year plan, that solar power will receive 1 trillion yuan of spending, as the country seeks to boost capacity by five times.

Some 700 billion yuan will go towards wind farms, 500 billion to hydro power with tidal and geothermal getting the rest, the NDRC said.

 

That's around $30 billion or 30 GW solar generation capacity investment per year the coming 4 years. This should hopefully boost the sector mood today.

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According to the article, the NDRC announced last month that they would spend a trillion yuan in the next 5 years. So this is old news?   I guess the new part is that the NEA is backing up this info?

3 hours ago, explo said:

That's around $30 billion or 30 GW solar generation capacity investment per year the coming 4 years. This should hopefully boost the sector mood today.

Does utility scale solar cost just $1/W in China?  Isn't it closer to $1.5?   If so, then that is about what is already on the books for China.

 

Current Credit Suisse predictions for solar:

18,000 2017

19,800 2018

21,780 2019

21,780 2020

 

Cheers-
Matt

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That's good news.  Another bit of maybe good news, if the trend continues is that the dollar turned around vs the RMB.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/offshore-yuan-borrowing-rate-jumps-to-second-highest-level-1483595388 

That, with the expected uptick in demand from China after their new year might cause ASPs to actually increase next Wednesday. 

Whaddya think?  

Matt

57 minutes ago, explo said:

Matt, i think they are hitting sub $1 already.

 

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You were right, the market did not get excited about those headlines.

On the unexpected RMB appreciation, that is actually not a positive for Chinese exporters even though it make international ASP look higher expressed in USD, the Chinese exporters have most of their cost in RMB and only some of its revenue. Rather the depreciation that has been going on for a while has been a positive and explains some of the cost and consequently price cuts we've seen.

 

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10 hours ago, explo said:

Y the Chinese exporters have most of their cost in RMB and only some of its revenue. 

Sorry, I wasn't clear with my thinking.  I was just thinking that the pv.energytrend.com and pvinsights.com numbers might actually go up this coming Wednesday. (because RMB/USD snapped back a little)  It seems that those numbers have some effect on the solar stock prices.   When they dropped > 2% a couple weeks ago, the solar stocks dropped pretty hard -- SPWR giving up almost all of its (short squeezed) gains.  

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Yes they drive PPS, but actually there are two possible causes, actual local market price moves in local currency or USD move (moving the USD converted local market prices). The latter is a pure good for the sellers, while the latter currency moves induced change is good or bad depending currency exposures of sales and costs. These companies are quite smart though and usually don't talk about it to avoid hinting competition. JA reportedly making massive investments in  Vietnam without press releasing it. JKS did some stuff in Portugal. CSIQ navigating its exposure in Brazil (pair costs with revenues).

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On 2017-01-06 at 8:31 AM, odyd said:

It sounds like Comtec sold wafer factory to Longi, wasn't Comtec a supplier of SunPower?

Now Longi is in direct competition with own client, I suppose not so different than GCL Systems.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20170104PD204.html

Interesting. The SPWR and Comtec partnership is likely struggling in this market were p-type mono PERC have become very cheap.

 

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On 2017-01-06 at 8:33 AM, odyd said:

And sale of FBR production to GCL by SUNEQ, nice new year sortings

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunedison-gets-greenlight-to-close-us150-sale-to-gcl-poly

Also very interesting. My impression is that US (REC and SEMI) where a lot ahead of China in FBR tech. Now China gets to pick it up on the low.

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Q4 2016 CCs are on their way.  

How much ASPs have dropped in Q4 vs expectations?   Will some CN solars will be reporting losses?  Certainly CSIQ has been selling downstream operations.  And CSIQ is pre-booked for q1 2017 - Does that mean they'll be getting 2016 Q3 avg prices.  Somehow their average ASPs were a fair bit higher than the pvinsights.com ASPs in Q3.

Also there have been new announcements from China about changing FIT reduction dates & amounts.  I wonder if those will improve short term demand and put a floor under ASPs.

ps:  according to the CS reports, spot ASPs for multi modules were down 8% Q4 2016.  Seemed liked a good part of that was near the end.

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Looks like module spot prices have stabilized for the past couple weeks.  

Does anyone here think that ASPs may have found a bottom & the glut is now over?

Matt

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What does this do for the ASP

China is a catchall for domestic manufacturing. 100GW currently is available. If the margins are small, it has no benefit for any of the companies. ASPs will not come back. It may stabilize but will not go up. The only win is to lower costs. However as discussed elsewhere the forecast to drop 4 cents from 29 to 25, has a three-years' timeline.

The mechanism for ASP is not in control of companies. While they will not sell to lose, they will sell to force others off the market. 

The chances are that for next three years companies will have 5 to 15% margins, perhaps except Jinko, this spells low to no earnings. Canadian can collect on plant sales, lower debt levels.  It may receive a lot of value from Japan, where I see projects to be sold to yieldco. 

 

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This summary provides me with an opinion how shutting coal production may only allow for more existing renewable energy sources join the grid and not to remain underutilized. Jinko's plants were about 10 to 20% underutilized on average. 

Things are not as clear

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/china-s-monstrous-wind-and-solar-projects-most-of-it-is-wasted/article/484006

 

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