odyd

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Explo, I think companies able to expand their capacity globally will be named to stay around. The ability will come from loans and full, 100% support by banks. Let's put it this way. I do not think that company with low debt is first on the list for survival. I do not think that company with big debt is out of the list. The size will matter, and the brand name as well. Operational capability also. Relationships favor STP, YGE and TSL for the first for consideration. I am not getting the same feeling from CSIQ, JA or ReneSola. Hanwha is Korean, LDK is done, Sunergy has not impact, Jinko in the same boat. DQ does nto exist as far as I am concerned. Add GCL, Hareon and that is the leadership if banking is concerned.

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They can use it or they can sell it to the flat panel display markets...which ever way they see fit. Good margins on Silane gas exist right now.

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Odyd, I think you are wrong. Remember, LDK was a glorious company in its good times. And it had great relation ship with banks and politicians. LDK was down...simply because of their capacity incompetence. Same fate is in store for other companies as well. YGE may very well join the incompetence club soon. Their debt is their curse. I don't think banks will throw their money at these zombies...knowing they are not going to get it back. At this moment SOL and CSI looks like the best managed companies so far. If you consider 1.5B$ revenue per year is decent for a tier 1 solar company. CSI already secured half their revenue for the next two years. You can't beat that in this market. SOL, as long as these guy run at more than 70% utilization with positive operating cash flow...should be fine. Just picture yourself...by taking 70% of Europe off the map and calculate the demand vs supply. This does look scary at least in the next 12 months. As other technologies like CIGS start adding capacity...the capacity is only going to increase.

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Trying to make an attachment for excel file. Two companies reported Solartech 41% drop in revnue in Q3 versus Q2. Danen 39% Added DelSolar Added Gintech and NSP It looks like revenues are down for Q3 in range of 28 to 40%.

Taiwan2012.xlsx

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Quite interesting article here about how the banks won't, for the sake of Chinese PV industry, take the punch and bury the corpses they backed: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glut-solar-panels-poses-threat-094403814.html According to the article Chinese companies are reluctant to admit failure and worse the banks that backed the failed companies are also reluctant to admit failure and thus supports continued failing. Result is that both more share holder capital and bank credit losses than necessary occurs when something is failing in China. A bit surprising is that the big banks cannot admit failure and reduce credit losses by taking them early. This might increase the survival chance for the biggest losers (LDK, STP, YGE), like odyd is suspecting, instead of redirecting the production capacity (and possibly brand) to the smaller but more competent management teams.

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A expected solar is under attack from all corners Forbes, Barrons, Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Bloomberg. There is no a single source from the popular publicists to oppose the public line view. What is not expected, in investing there is an opportunity view, normally opposing the general concept, contrarian approach another words. Not this time. Not a chance for a surprise 2 days before final result for the US duties.

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2012 China PV Market: Slow Start but a Strong Ending to Come

Shanghai, 9 October 2012. China’s domestic photovoltaic (PV) market made a slow
start to the year, with just 720 megawatts (MW) installed in the first half,
according to the latest research from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS
Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). However, installations are forecast to surge in the
second half, with more than four gigawatts (GW) of PV installations to be
completed, taking full year installations to five GW, according to the Q3’12
edition of the
China PV Market – Supply and Demand Quarterly
report, released in September.

In September, China announced its latest PV
Development Five-Year-Plan which targets 20 GW of PV systems and one GW of
solar thermal power to be completed by 2015. However, this plan did not bring
the levels of financial stimulus that were expected. “While old issues like
grid-connection and power transmission have still not been solved, new issues
emerged in the second quarter of 2012, such as worsening bankability, poor
credit conditions and a general slowdown of the Chinese economy,” remarked
Frank Xie, IMS Research’s senior PV analyst based in Shanghai. “Many projects
are said to have completed the bidding process; however, they are not yet under
construction. Integrators are prioritizing projects to be completed by year
end, and there will be a huge surge in installations in the final quarter of
the year.”

2012 has so far also bought difficult times for
China’s huge supplier base and utilization rates remained low as a result of a
strong focus on cost control and caution over the ongoing EU trade
investigation into Chinese PV products. Average utilization levels for PV
polysilicon, wafers, cells and module manufacturers all declined in the third
quarter; all were lower than 60 percent. Despite wafer production capacity in
China declining in the third quarter, average utilization fell to just 58
percent; as an increasing number of cell manufacturers favored sourcing
competitively priced wafers from third parties at a lower cost than
manufacturing them in house. Utilization rates are forecast to recover slightly
in the fourth quarter in response to the predicted boom in domestic
installations.
Both inverter shipments and revenues declined in the
second quarter of 2012 compared with the previous quarter as a result of weak
demand. According to the report, the first half of 2012 saw inverter shipments
of just 700 MW, less than half of the amount shipped in the second half of
2011. However, Xie holds a positive view for future inverter shipments in the
second half of the year, adding: “The situation is set to improve, and China’s
rapidly expanding inverter supplier base is forecast to ship more than four GW
of inverters in the second half of 2012.”
Researched by IMS Research’s Chinese analysts, the ‘China
PV Market – Supply and Demand Q3’12
’ was published on 27 September and contains quarterly
analysis and forecasts of the supply and demand dynamics of China’s PV
industry.
For more information please
contact:
IMS Research: Frank Xie,
Senior Research Analyst, T: +86 21 6270 1823 # 806, frank.xie@imsresearch.com
Twitter: IMSResearch_PV
Contact details:
IHS Media Relations
press@ihs.com Tel: +1 303 305 8021
Alternative Contacts:
Europe
Ann Ruff
Ann.ruff@ihs.com Tel: +44 1933 402 255
US
Stacy Hackenberg
Stacy.hackenberg@ihs.com Tel: +1 512 302 1977
Asia Pacific
Yvonne Zhang
yvonne.zhang@ihs.com Tel: +86 21 6720 1823
Follow us on twitter:
IMSResearch_PV
About The China PV Market –
Supply and Demand Quarterly report
The China PV Market – Supply and Demand Quarterly is
IMS Research’s first consolidated industry report about China’s PV industry. It
tracks the true supply and demand dynamics of China’s PV industry. Key
information contained in this report includes:
PV Modules, Cells, Wafers,
Polysilicon & Inverters
Shipments and Revenues
Production
Capacity
Prices and Costs
Supplier and Channel Inventory Levels
Quarterly & Annual PV Installations
Details of major PV projects
Profiles of leading suppliers and system integrators
About IHS Inc. (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading
source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape
today's business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165
countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert
independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact
decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been
in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York
Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS
employs more than 6,000 people in more than 30 countries around the world.
About IMS Research (www.imsresearch.com)
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS (NYSE: IHS), is a leading
supplier of market research and consultancy to over 2500 clients worldwide,
including most of the world’s largest technology companies. Established in the
UK in 1989, IMS Research now has dedicated analyst teams focused on the factory
automation, automotive, communications, computer, consumer, display, financial
& ID, LED & lighting, medical, power & energy, solar PV, smart grid
and security markets. Currently publishing over 350 different syndicated
report titles each year, these in-depth publications are used by major
electronics and industrial companies to assess market trends, solve marketing
problems, and improve the efficiency of their businesses.
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Completely agree with you, Hatred by US press is unbelievable. I'm wondering if US oil fear mongers get there way on tariffs are they going to send all US listed Solars to single digits...

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