odyd

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Explo, I think companies able to expand their capacity globally will be named to stay around. The ability will come from loans and full, 100% support by banks. Let's put it this way. I do not think that company with low debt is first on the list for survival. I do not think that company with big debt is out of the list. The size will matter, and the brand name as well. Operational capability also. Relationships favor STP, YGE and TSL for the first for consideration. I am not getting the same feeling from CSIQ, JA or ReneSola. Hanwha is Korean, LDK is done, Sunergy has not impact, Jinko in the same boat. DQ does nto exist as far as I am concerned. Add GCL, Hareon and that is the leadership if banking is concerned.

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They can use it or they can sell it to the flat panel display markets...which ever way they see fit. Good margins on Silane gas exist right now.

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Odyd, I think you are wrong. Remember, LDK was a glorious company in its good times. And it had great relation ship with banks and politicians. LDK was down...simply because of their capacity incompetence. Same fate is in store for other companies as well. YGE may very well join the incompetence club soon. Their debt is their curse. I don't think banks will throw their money at these zombies...knowing they are not going to get it back. At this moment SOL and CSI looks like the best managed companies so far. If you consider 1.5B$ revenue per year is decent for a tier 1 solar company. CSI already secured half their revenue for the next two years. You can't beat that in this market. SOL, as long as these guy run at more than 70% utilization with positive operating cash flow...should be fine. Just picture yourself...by taking 70% of Europe off the map and calculate the demand vs supply. This does look scary at least in the next 12 months. As other technologies like CIGS start adding capacity...the capacity is only going to increase.

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Trying to make an attachment for excel file. Two companies reported Solartech 41% drop in revnue in Q3 versus Q2. Danen 39% Added DelSolar Added Gintech and NSP It looks like revenues are down for Q3 in range of 28 to 40%.

Taiwan2012.xlsx

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Quite interesting article here about how the banks won't, for the sake of Chinese PV industry, take the punch and bury the corpses they backed: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/glut-solar-panels-poses-threat-094403814.html According to the article Chinese companies are reluctant to admit failure and worse the banks that backed the failed companies are also reluctant to admit failure and thus supports continued failing. Result is that both more share holder capital and bank credit losses than necessary occurs when something is failing in China. A bit surprising is that the big banks cannot admit failure and reduce credit losses by taking them early. This might increase the survival chance for the biggest losers (LDK, STP, YGE), like odyd is suspecting, instead of redirecting the production capacity (and possibly brand) to the smaller but more competent management teams.

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A expected solar is under attack from all corners Forbes, Barrons, Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Bloomberg. There is no a single source from the popular publicists to oppose the public line view. What is not expected, in investing there is an opportunity view, normally opposing the general concept, contrarian approach another words. Not this time. Not a chance for a surprise 2 days before final result for the US duties.

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2012 China PV Market: Slow Start but a Strong Ending to Come

Shanghai, 9 October 2012. China’s domestic photovoltaic (PV) market made a slow
start to the year, with just 720 megawatts (MW) installed in the first half,
according to the latest research from IMS Research (recently acquired by IHS
Inc. (NYSE: IHS)). However, installations are forecast to surge in the
second half, with more than four gigawatts (GW) of PV installations to be
completed, taking full year installations to five GW, according to the Q3’12
edition of the
China PV Market – Supply and Demand Quarterly
report, released in September.

In September, China announced its latest PV
Development Five-Year-Plan which targets 20 GW of PV systems and one GW of
solar thermal power to be completed by 2015. However, this plan did not bring
the levels of financial stimulus that were expected. “While old issues like
grid-connection and power transmission have still not been solved, new issues
emerged in the second quarter of 2012, such as worsening bankability, poor
credit conditions and a general slowdown of the Chinese economy,” remarked
Frank Xie, IMS Research’s senior PV analyst based in Shanghai. “Many projects
are said to have completed the bidding process; however, they are not yet under
construction. Integrators are prioritizing projects to be completed by year
end, and there will be a huge surge in installations in the final quarter of
the year.”

2012 has so far also bought difficult times for
China’s huge supplier base and utilization rates remained low as a result of a
strong focus on cost control and caution over the ongoing EU trade
investigation into Chinese PV products. Average utilization levels for PV
polysilicon, wafers, cells and module manufacturers all declined in the third
quarter; all were lower than 60 percent. Despite wafer production capacity in
China declining in the third quarter, average utilization fell to just 58
percent; as an increasing number of cell manufacturers favored sourcing
competitively priced wafers from third parties at a lower cost than
manufacturing them in house. Utilization rates are forecast to recover slightly
in the fourth quarter in response to the predicted boom in domestic
installations.
Both inverter shipments and revenues declined in the
second quarter of 2012 compared with the previous quarter as a result of weak
demand. According to the report, the first half of 2012 saw inverter shipments
of just 700 MW, less than half of the amount shipped in the second half of
2011. However, Xie holds a positive view for future inverter shipments in the
second half of the year, adding: “The situation is set to improve, and China’s
rapidly expanding inverter supplier base is forecast to ship more than four GW
of inverters in the second half of 2012.”
Researched by IMS Research’s Chinese analysts, the ‘China
PV Market – Supply and Demand Q3’12
’ was published on 27 September and contains quarterly
analysis and forecasts of the supply and demand dynamics of China’s PV
industry.
For more information please
contact:
IMS Research: Frank Xie,
Senior Research Analyst, T: +86 21 6270 1823 # 806, frank.xie@imsresearch.com
Twitter: IMSResearch_PV
Contact details:
IHS Media Relations
press@ihs.com Tel: +1 303 305 8021
Alternative Contacts:
Europe
Ann Ruff
Ann.ruff@ihs.com Tel: +44 1933 402 255
US
Stacy Hackenberg
Stacy.hackenberg@ihs.com Tel: +1 512 302 1977
Asia Pacific
Yvonne Zhang
yvonne.zhang@ihs.com Tel: +86 21 6720 1823
Follow us on twitter:
IMSResearch_PV
About The China PV Market –
Supply and Demand Quarterly report
The China PV Market – Supply and Demand Quarterly is
IMS Research’s first consolidated industry report about China’s PV industry. It
tracks the true supply and demand dynamics of China’s PV industry. Key
information contained in this report includes:
PV Modules, Cells, Wafers,
Polysilicon & Inverters
Shipments and Revenues
Production
Capacity
Prices and Costs
Supplier and Channel Inventory Levels
Quarterly & Annual PV Installations
Details of major PV projects
Profiles of leading suppliers and system integrators
About IHS Inc. (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading
source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape
today's business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165
countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert
independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact
decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been
in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York
Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS
employs more than 6,000 people in more than 30 countries around the world.
About IMS Research (www.imsresearch.com)
IMS Research, recently acquired by IHS (NYSE: IHS), is a leading
supplier of market research and consultancy to over 2500 clients worldwide,
including most of the world’s largest technology companies. Established in the
UK in 1989, IMS Research now has dedicated analyst teams focused on the factory
automation, automotive, communications, computer, consumer, display, financial
& ID, LED & lighting, medical, power & energy, solar PV, smart grid
and security markets. Currently publishing over 350 different syndicated
report titles each year, these in-depth publications are used by major
electronics and industrial companies to assess market trends, solve marketing
problems, and improve the efficiency of their businesses.
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Completely agree with you, Hatred by US press is unbelievable. I'm wondering if US oil fear mongers get there way on tariffs are they going to send all US listed Solars to single digits...

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Interesting article from China Daily on power stations

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-10/10/content_15805477.htm

Power stations fuel solar industry's growing international ambitions

Energy programs are among 15 international economic projects that have been given the go-ahead in a major effort to boost the country's global presence in the solar sector and provide more opportunities for Chinese companies.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, announced the approval of 15 overseas projects on Monday. Energy projects account for about half. Silicon cell producers Hareon Solar Technology won approval to build a 122-megawatt solar-panel power station in Romania.

Winsun New Energy also won approval to establish solar power stations in Italy and Greece.

Solar panel manufacturers have been hit by trade friction recently but power stations may meet less opposition as they provide local employment, experts said.

Han Wenke, director of the Energy Research Institute under the NDRC, said Chinese companies are increasingly looking at setting up power stations.

"Solar has led a new wave in China's overseas investment," Han said.

Solar companies have the expertise to meet robust demand from overseas, he said.

The European Commission launched a probe into China's alleged dumping of solar products in September and the ProSun coalition, a group of 25 European solar panel manufacturers, requested tariffs of up to 120 percent on some Chinese solar products.

More than half of China's solar products are exported to Europe and the suggested tariff would seriously damage the domestic industry.

The EU's probe came on the heels of the US Commerce Department announcing preliminary tariffs of up to 250 percent on imports of Chinese solar cells in May.

The silicon wafer business has been affected by the gloomy global market and trade barriers in the US and Europe, said Xue Jin, assistant general manager of Winsun New Energy.

"Our company used to focus on silicon wafer manufacturing, but since last year we looked more at solar power stations," Xue said.

Winsun will start building a 115.9 megawatt solar power station this year in Italy, and increase investment into its branch in Luxembourg, after the NDRC approval.

Earlier this year, the NDRC gave approval to Long Energy, a solar company in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu province, to invest in a solar power station in the US.

China Everbright International announced it was involved in a solar-panel energy project last year in Germany with an investment of about 7.6 million euros ($9.8 million). The station is connected to the power grid and has started generating power.

Zhang Jianping, a researcher from the Institute for International Economic Research under the NDRC, said investing in overseas solar power stations has gradually become a new business model.

Exports of solar products have been hit by anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations, but power stations help create local jobs, Zhang said.

The eurozone crisis provides an excellent opportunity.

However, not all solar companies are optimistic about global operations.

Tony Zhu, sales director of Shandong-based Himin Clean Energy, said the company has no short-term plans for projects in Europe and the US.

"It usually takes eight to 10 years to get back investment and the company may have a liquidity crunch. It costs about 15 yuan ($2.4) per watt to build such a station," Zhu said.

The NDRC also approved Guangdong Guangken Rubber Group investing in a 40,000-hectare site in Malaysia and Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber investing in a manufacturing project in Thailand.

Tires are a focus of trade friction. The US imposed 35 percent additional duties on Chinese tire imports in 2009.

"China imports rubber from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia and it's a better option to also produce there to avoid trade friction," said Zhang.

Contact the writers at lanlan@chinadaily.com.cn and xieyu@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily 10/10/2012 page1)

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The excel file contains the figures for last month and the quarter. Average 25% drop in revenue from Q2. This will be the outcome for the Chinese companies in this Q.

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There must be some significance to PV. A world trade war has started in the fight to secure a piece of its future. Contestants: US, EU, China, India.

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Not too bad, almost all neutralized. Let's Taiwanese and Koreans make some money (or should I say Malaysians) . I am certain within 3 to 4 months based on the EU cases, companies will be setting up shops in global locations. There are enough poor countries in global economy. India just perfect. Little to nothing of own manufacturing. Funny they have First Solar caught there dumping as well.

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Not bad at all, for Trina effective tariff is 23.75, well below the preliminary one. They haven't added panels, I think that was market feared, in recent days. And I guess the tariffs are not retroactive, right? Or is it only for STP? ...."Regarding today’s decision, E.L “Mick” McDaniel, managing director of Suntech America, told PV-Tech that, “We are pleased with the DoC’s final decision to remove the 90-day retroactivity of tariffs on Suntech products. It was apparent to everyone within the solar industry that abnormal market demand in Q4 2011 was driven by the expiry of the 1603 cash grant program and this ruling reflects the reality that Suntech did not stockpile products to avoid potential tariffs.”....

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they have been already collected in the preliminary amounts. Some may get money back like Trina and Yingli, I think.

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Actually, the tariffs are all retroactive except for STP, that's odd decision. ..."Commerce found that critical circumstances exist in the AD investigation for all companies except Wuxi Suntech. As a result, provisional duty deposits – normally collected as of the date of publication in the Federal Register (May 25, 2012) of Commerce’s preliminary determinations – will be collected 90 days prior to that date from all companies except Wuxi Suntech. AD deposits applied to Wuxi Suntech will be due as of the date of publication of Commerce’s preliminary determination."... http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-commerce-votes-in-favor-of-duties-for-chinese-pv-manufacturers_100008801/#axzz28iaozJU1

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Interesting article. It quite logical that the equipment manufacturers are the ones desperate for orders now and extending credits. LDK has 1 billion in payables. Someone is depending on the survival of LDK. On your dumping article; frankly the root cause of the PV glut is because US and Europe "dumped" manufacturing equipment and polysilicon on the industry. China stepped up and gave US and Europe cash for their overproduced manufacturing equipment and polysilicon. Now they are hanged because they used that equipment and raw material to produce cells and selling it at market prices. The source of the glut is clearly the high tech part of the value-chain produced in Europe and US. Ok, China could have avoided to do them "a solid" and not taken their stuff in exchange for cash. Yes, the industry credit from Chinese banks were directly channelled as cash revenue to US and European companies, with their Chinese customers left with the liabilities and manufacturing equipment. Chinese banks have been the main direct revenue driver for US and European PV companies. The whole thing is a farce. It would be a different story if China were not a net importer of manufacturing equipment and polysilicon. Solyndra et al are not the tech companies that sit on the key to PV production that are strategically important to protect. It's the GTAT, AMAT, Centrotherm and Roth & Rau. Chinese PV companies and their banks have been the biggest supporters of these strategically important European and US companies from a PV technology ownership and self-sufficiency perspective. Now US and Europe want to kill their best customer of advanced equipment (the stuff we want to do here, right?) and best supplier of simple equipment (the stuff we should want done over there, right?) with one stone. Not exactly a display of great strategic leadership.

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