odyd

Solar News

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Based on months of observation, HSOL, CSIQ, CSUN have been positive year to date, SOL has been flip-flopping around the positive'negative line with loss of 4.58% ytd. JKS has shown strength but still lost 22.2% ytd. It seems to me that STP and DQ are trying hard to maintain $1 listing requirement, STP can surely do reverse split, don't DQ can do that. JASO is trading at 86c, it might get de-listing notice if it doesn't move over $1 shortly, we'll see if the funds will support it.

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Hi Chang, I moved your post to this forum. I also moved my own to show recent news, including market in China. Let's try to keep the posts to companies or start threading under this forum.

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<<when the turnover got gloomier, some silicon material traders chose to expand shipments to improve their liquidity and avoid the adjustment of the price after the holiday...More and more enterprises shut down this week, and some of them withdrew from the market and even went bankrupt...>> Other than what have been mentioned, cells makers also dumped Wafers, modules makers dumped Cells, I think they don't want extra "raw materials" sitting there if they can buy more cheaper later... One thing that's for sure. They can't keep producing what they can not sell, and they can not keep losing money without getting into more financial troubles. This gotta come to the end at some point, we're not really watching Ocean-7 or 11, Chinese Solars can end up with just 5? How do they come from 11 to 5 is probably everyone's guess, even the top tiers look shakier than the little ones!

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It's time to forget too big to fail. Instead it's easy to make a "too expensive to bailout" list. No one of solar 11 has a market cap much above 300m anymore, so the price tag for most of them are their net debts. Here are the net debts to bail out to give the different solar 11 and GCL capacity parks a sustainable financial structure: GCL 3.16b LDK 2.61b YGE 1.86b STP 1.63b JASO 0.55b SOL 0.55b TSL 0.52b HSOL 0.42b JKS 0.40b CSIQ 0.35b DQ 0.29b CSUN 0.21b Who has technology/capacity that stands out? I'd say GCL on poly and wafer SOL on wafer JASO on cell YGE on wafer and cell LDK is a mess and to expensive to bailout. Sell Mahong and some of the other decent capacity to someone that can make efficient use of it. JASO committed to build 3GW integrated in Hefei. Let them take over LDK's Hefei capacity on the cheap. JKS could use a poly plant at home, in Jiangxi province, maybe they can make LDK's Mahong as efficient as their other plants. STP is too expensive to bail-out. What do they have? A poster boy, a brand name and unfeasible cost structure? I don't see much point in saving those two, just extract some of the useful parts for others. YGE might hold the future tech, but is really expensive to bail-out. Hard to call, since short-term SOL and JASO can provide same quality panels at lower cost. LDK and STP can fail because it is expensive to let them not and there's no real tech and knowhow there. Fail them to relieve Chinese PV industry of the debt burden their reckless management has brought upon it and then make better use of the capacity, overtaken at foreclosure prices. DQ and CSUN? Too small to succeed?

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Good perspective Explo. As per your net debt theory...don't you think CSI looks more interesting than others? I am asking this based on their project revenue prospects going into 2013 and their lean business model.

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According to Reuters, Chinese companies must find global locations to avoid tariffs. Very obvious for global status and manufacturing concept. We had few articles with this simple truth. The statements made were that cost of producing in Taiwan is about 15% higher and Europe is 40% higher. I am not sure about Europe being that high if you looked for it. However I would say that if they picked Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand the costs of labor should be a lot less than in China. In Europe Czech Republic, Poland offers costs drop on labor. Finally automation should be taking over the content of labor in module building, I think the last area of the manual labor.

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I think that, some of those line of credits will be used for the asset purchases. Chinese banks can assist in helping to buy facilities, companies in the brand-name of large companies in global locations. It is natural to pick the best operational units not on the basis of their debt levels but quality, brand and operational efficiency. I would not put too much emphasis into a size of a debt, but more into an ability to pay interest rates and manage operations. LDK is unable to manage own operations, I am afraid. TSL, YGE, STP, JASO are the four I would imagine things will concentrate around those names. HSOL is Korean, they are going that path. CSIQ is separated from the group, their path is of separation from Mainland. Renesola will make to the core I think but I am not convinced they are there today. The pressure could be from GCL to let ReneSola stand alone.

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With reasonable automation, I think labor cost can be traded off with shipping costs...if they co-locate to the markets or close to it. Also, some of the materials that goes into the final assembly...may be a lot cheaper in China than in any other parts of the world. My worst fear is ...cost is not the issue here... the whole thing is orchestrated by the Chinese Govt policy to keep running the employment up.

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I would list the specialists as follows.. GCL - poly SOL - wafer JASO - cell TSL - modules CSIQ - projects JASO, TSL, CSI has the best probability to sustain long term. CSI may very well turn around in the next 6-12 months. SOL - operationally...they seem okay...but the poly plant could be a liability at least in the near term.

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Perhaps, but those high numbers of people employed are not that high when you think of size of the population. Also consider layoffs recently, it can be avoided. The free-market cannot sustain businesses with higher costs than the price of the goods. Shipping costs are very high, ultimately are they going to abandon the markets or pay the tariff? They will find the best alternatives. India is not only a huge market but well educated, cheap labor pool. Perfect fit for Asia.

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India has huge infrastructure development needs...which require a lot of power...and obviously solar make sense as a peak power generator. For companies, it make sense to co-locate, develop and sell within India. But building in India and exporting may not make sense. Labor cost in India is not cheap any more. Now a days, many companies in India are out sourcing jobs to Sri Lanka, China and other SE Asian countries.

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Red, yes i think csi is in a quite good position short-term, but long-term i think they are too downstream focused for my taste. The healthy balance sheet in their case is related to that they have not invested much in upstream capacity.

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Odyd, i think the high debt level will be problematic for China PV. They have to let the banks take the punch here if they want to maintain and secure no 1 PV position.

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Explo, CSI has Hetero Junction cell tech (21% eff) ready to go. But this requires a lot of cash commitment. The CEO is weighing the benefit of building new cell lines now or wait for the project revenue to roll in. Otherwise, I would agree...their best standard modules right now are going around 230-250w...which is way low compared to Renesola or JASO.

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Red, I think it would be only natural if they picked India for a location. Labor is rather cheap outside of metropolitan areas. The cost could be a lot less than China as certain social programs are simply not available to Indian workers versus Chinese workers.

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