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10 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

Well actually I overstated. If ASPs came down 8% in q4, then on average it's just 4% and it may be less as most occurred near the end of the quarter, as I remember.  

Plus, CSIQ & JKS had a lot of downstream sales.  Maybe the CN solars will beat and lift the overall spirits. 

I thought SPWR did terribly but the market seems to be treating it almost like any other day, so a little bit of positive from CN solars may send solars up.

They've already guided ASP to drop from around .50 to low .40's so market should be expecting more than 10% ASP drop.

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16 minutes ago, explo said:

They've already guided ASP to drop from around .50 to low .40's so market should be expecting more than 10% ASP drop.

Interesting, according to the pvinsights, ASPs dropped just 8% last quarter.  

However, everything else moved up in price last quarter.  Poly up 20%, Wafers up 20%, and cells up either 10% or 16% (pv.energytrend.com / pvinsights numbers)

 

50 to low 40s would be certainly more than what the price tracking sites reported.  

So maybe we'll have some surprise beats this quarter.

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ASP in recognized revenue from sales contracts tend to lag those reported by latest quotes survey sites.

 

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4 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Interesting, according to the pvinsights, ASPs dropped just 8% last quarter.  

However, everything else moved up in price last quarter.  Poly up 20%, Wafers up 20%, and cells up either 10% or 16% (pv.energytrend.com / pvinsights numbers)

 

50 to low 40s would be certainly more than what the price tracking sites reported.  

So maybe we'll have some surprise beats this quarter.

Can you link quotes that poly went up 20%?

This would destroy any supply chain for every Chinese company.

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12 hours ago, odyd said:

Can you link quotes that poly went up 20%?

This would destroy any supply chain for every Chinese company.

This was according to CreditSuisse's tracking of the main two Chinese pv price tracking sites (pvinsights & pv.energytrend)

 

pv price trends q4 2017.png

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37 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

This was according to CreditSuisse's tracking of the main two Chinese pv price tracking sites (pvinsights & pv.energytrend)

 

pv price trends q4 2017.png

Thank you, Matthew,

I have been out from tracking material pricing for a while, so I am very surprised. Companies trying to sell inventories or not hold to materials for long would be shocking the system selling modules at a price drop and buying poly at 20% higher. Not sure of impairment on poly with SunPower, perhaps are read the cc on the weekend.

This means that not only ASP hit the cost, but the cost went up.

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36 minutes ago, odyd said:

Thank you, Matthew,

I have been out from tracking material pricing for a while, so I am very surprised. Companies trying to sell inventories or not hold to materials for long would be shocking the system selling modules at a price drop and buying poly at 20% higher. Not sure of impairment on poly with SunPower, perhaps are read the cc on the weekend.

This means that not only ASP hit the cost, but the cost went up.

That screenshot was from the 23 12 2017.  I'm missing the final report from December.  (I need to get better at downloading when they are available)

I'd upload the entire reports, except they are a few MB in side & I have an upload size restriction.

 

Does CSIQ supply their own poly  Another hint would be the profits @ the various poly suppliers?

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

Does CSIQ supply their own poly  Another hint would be the profits @ the various poly suppliers?

The big panel brands have own wafers factories that need to buy all their poly supply since none of the own poly plants (except Renesola, not big maybe). FSLR's panel cost is poly market immune.

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SPWR is up double digit today, recovering more than it lost yesterday on the Q4 report.

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Sounded like credit suisse wanted to get out giving it target if $10 on this report, a lot of buyers thinking it is legit. I am going to put time in to see how they look on debt, against two years of zero earnings.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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