odyd

Pattern Energy Group Inc. (PEGI)

138 posts in this topic

Very good.  So far PEGI handling the fed rate increase well.

At some point I need to go & read about the effect of inflation on PEGI's profitability.  Has anyone seen a good discussion about this?

Also, Google recently announced they will be 100% renewable energy by... 2017!  I hope PEGI will see some of that.

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Among the lawyers chasing dimes, PEGI has a release about financing obtained in Japan. Similar situation like CSIQ probably very low IR. starting a 33MW wind project following with 125MW Tsuguru, which is mentioned in here

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pattern-development-completes-financing-ohorayama-120000019.html

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20 minutes ago, odyd said:

Among the lawyers chasing dimes, PEGI has a release about financing obtained in Japan. Similar situation like CSIQ probably very low IR. starting a 33MW wind project following with 125MW Tsuguru, which is mentioned in here

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pattern-development-completes-financing-ohorayama-120000019.html

Is this good news?  The market didn't seem to like PEGI today.  I very much hope it wasn't the drop in the price of oil that caused the selloff.

Matt 

 

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1 hour ago, sunnypease said:

I very much hope it wasn't the drop in the price of oil that caused the selloff.

Why is this matter?

Of course, it is good news. A company, developer, is getting financing in Japan, with their negative until recently interest rates and zero to 1% bonds. 

I predicted that Japan will, and I expect due to recent, unofficial, announcements that Canada will, be a place of debt financings. For now, they have enough to close Broadview and another  $200M for Meikle. Japan is probably offering a lot of cash flows with their high FiT rates, so I think the developer will sit on those for a bit, but still this is splendid news. 

I need to buy more shares with dividend payout, so of course after hitting $18s I welcome the drop to get them cheap by the end of the month, do not want to see go over $21, it will screw my averaging.

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On 1/10/2017 at 1:03 AM, odyd said:

 I need to buy more shares with dividend payout, so of course after hitting $18s I welcome the drop to get them cheap by the end of the month, do not want to see go over $21, it will screw my averaging.

So far, PEGI is my best performing holding.  I'm tempted to buy more.  Do you really hold 98% PEGI?  If so, you must be very confident in these guys.

Matt

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I have closer to a 100%, and I do not have any other stock.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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9 hours ago, odyd said:

I have closer to a 100%, and I do not have any other stock.

You are a brave man.  I have about 20% in PEGI, I'd like to put in more.

Do you think, long term, that middle companies like PEGI will continue to exist? Are other types of power generation organized in a similar way?  I mean with a PPA signed between a power utility and the power generation builder / operator.

Thank you-

Matt

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25 minutes ago, sunnypease said:

You are a brave man

After reading my articles and this forum, you concluded that my investments are the result of behavior or matters of character?

 

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I suspect that the next move for PEGI would be a corporate bond,

I saw this today, this is a Canadian company operating in utilities. A 10-year debenture with the yield of 4.09%, if this works, I could see PEGI get Canadian banks involved. The rate is not great, but they can support Canadian growth easily some 300MW or more is to be developed in Canada.

http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C:AQN-2435947&symbol=AQN&region=C

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On 1/12/2017 at 0:50 AM, odyd said:

After reading my articles and this forum, you concluded that my investments are the result of behavior or matters of character?

Hi Robert -

  I certainly know that you put a lot of research into your choices.  Your piece about the next couple years in solar investing really opened my eyes & is what brought me to this forum.

  Unfortunately, I got burned by some unwise choices:  1. going long on FSLR based on fool.com just before Q2 CCs. Luckily I got out after Sunpower's CC and before FSLR's   2. Going short only to see technical traders, reversion to the mean, and short squeezes kick in.  So I'm now very hesitant to go long on a single position - however slam dunk it may appear.  I wish I had the conviction that you do.

Matt

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I've been enjoying my 20% allotment to PEGI.   I'd like to add more, but am afraid to put all the proverbial eggs into that basket.  

I see there are other yieldcos & similar companies to PEGI.  Is there another that could be considered nearly as stable as PEGI?

Thanks

Matt

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8 hours ago, sunnypease said:

I've been enjoying my 20% allotment to PEGI.   I'd like to add more, but am afraid to put all the proverbial eggs into that basket.  

I see there are other yieldcos & similar companies to PEGI.  Is there another that could be considered nearly as stable as PEGI?

Thanks

Matt

BEP is the oldest and largest and most stable yieldco I found when doing a listed yieldco inventory a while ago. Sponsor is BAM who is bidding on TERP now. NEP has an excellent sponsor in NEE, but did not avoid being dragged downed hard in the yieldco crash. Basically only BEP had a soft landing of the US yieldcos. Then there are many Canadians too, some of them double listed in US. Maybe NPI.TO is the largest and most stable one of those. Then there are plenty with slightly distressed sponsors, but not to the extent of TERP, GLBL and ABY, that offer better yield. RNW.TO, NYLD and maybe PEGI are examples of such yieldcos. The more risk from e.g. sponsor weakness, stretched BS or excessive CAFD use for dividend the higher yield is usually offered. I would suggest a basket of yieldcos to diversify exposure (energy source, geographies etc.) and risks (financial, sponsor etc.) and get a mix of yield levels.

Edited by explo
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Hi Explo -

  Thank you very much for the list.  While reading up on BEP on SeekingAlpha, I learned that these distributions from the non-US based companies send out a K1 form.  Yuck!  I'm a US citizen.  So much for passive income. I guess PEGI is the same.

  I just read about the yieldco crash.  https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-yieldco-boom-and-bust-the-consequences-of-greed

6 hours ago, explo said:

Then there are plenty with slightly distressed sponsors, but not to the extent of TERP, GLBL and ABY, that offer better yield. RNW.TO, NYLD and maybe PEGI are examples of such yieldcos.

  How is PEGI slightly distressed?  

Thank you-

Matt

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I'm actually not sure about PEGI distress. I think its sponsor Pattern Energy might have some issues causing PEGI to have higher yield than say NEP, but I'm not sure what the cause of the higher yield is.

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4 hours ago, explo said:

I'm actually not sure about PEGI distress. I think its sponsor Pattern Energy might have some issues causing PEGI to have higher yield than say NEP, but I'm not sure what the cause of the higher yield is.

PEGI is doing worse since their material controls have been on rocks with the disclosure made, lot of people had sold.

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14 hours ago, sunnypease said:

Hi Explo -

  Thank you very much for the list.  While reading up on BEP on SeekingAlpha, I learned that these distributions from the non-US based companies send out a K1 form.  Yuck!  I'm a US citizen.  So much for passive income. I guess PEGI is the same.

  I just read about the yieldco crash.  https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-yieldco-boom-and-bust-the-consequences-of-greed

  How is PEGI slightly distressed?  

Thank you-

Matt

Since you quoting article from the mid- year I quote the same author from 9 days ago

http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2017/01/ten_clean_energy_stocks_for_2016_year_in_review.html

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I have submitted my perspective on yieldcos to SA. It is my analysis of IR and impacts. I have not seen anything similar out there so I hope it will be published. 

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17 hours ago, odyd said:

I have submitted my perspective on yieldcos to SA. It is my analysis of IR and impacts. I have not seen anything similar out there so I hope it will be published. 

Very much looking forward to your article.  Thank you for putting the time & energy into researching & writing!

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