odyd

TerraForm Global (GLBL)

242 posts in this topic

GLBL has done nothing thus far, it has flat lined at this point. This stock should move up, run a comparison for last month for TERP and GLBL. This is why.

Yeah, i was wondering why GLBL hadnt followed TERP jumps.

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7 hours ago, dk1 said:

12% $ return will be attractive not in INR....central bank benchmark rate in india is around 7%...from my discussion with project developers there, good investors looked for 15%+ equity returns!!

1.1 is the cost that I heard about...with 1.4, that is 20% GM...good for SUNE...but not sure if good enough for GLBL.

One more point there DK, this is levered 12%, so after the financial obligations are paid. I think this is not bad at all.

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2 hours ago, odyd said:

One more point there DK, this is levered 12%, so after the financial obligations are paid. I think this is not bad at all.

IRR target depends on risk. I think that typically high single digits unlevered and high teens levered IRR are targeted unless risks are very low. Inveresting in GLBL stock offers high 20's unlevered yield.. Sweet.

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generally EM currencies had down year, but not INR. Also long-term currency and counter-party risks are much higher for India..hence I think 12% levered IRR is not really good enough!

GLBL could still be a good investment given the levels it is trading at, but i find TERP better risk-reward at these prices.

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18 hours ago, odyd said:

One more point there DK, this is levered 12%, so after the financial obligations are paid. I think this is not bad at all.

generally it is already accounted in IRR calculation..so should not make any difference IMO.

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I am not going to split hair on this. I think those numbers are good, but if they are not, they do not appear that way immediately in my math. I sold GLBL today and re bought TERP, so discussion is an academic one. Thank you for your input. We can certainly revisit at one point. India is once again getting a lot of press, but I will not get excited about it unless CN3 member gets into it with plant building.

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There's definitely something up with GLBL after it stalled compared to TERP. Either its a rotation or those in the know are ahead of the rest. Closed on high of the day on significantly down day. Most importantly, over 1M shares traded on the close? Very interesting and exciting for those with position in it. 

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I think it is a catch up, maybe there is a news, but I rather think of the catch up. Sill I am glad we have all the best time with yieldcos this quarter. I hope for more fun in 2016.

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If I were SUNE management, rather than doing these crazy dillutive debt restructurings, I would be shopping a substantial stake ($100-$200M worth) in TERP + GLBL to major supporters of renewables--warren buffet, apple, google etc., (hell they know the big players better than i do).

I think the yield offered would be inducement enough, but SUNE could add some sort of evaporating warrant/put contract for additional shares that goes away as dividend payment returns initial investment in full.  Enough inducement so the downside risk is minimal for investor.  Basically make it a "no-brainer".

Why give some deep pocketed investor a sweetheart deal like this?  It would provide a significant slug of much needed cash to SUNE (obviously), and demonstrate backstop support like the buffet investment in Goldman Sachs did in 2008.  I think this could end in one swoop the whole death spiral thing SUNE initiated with its VSLR offer.  (which they should never had made...*sigh*)

[And I would have been trying to do a deal like this ever since SUNE dropped under $10/share--so the deal could have been well along before SUNE apparently had its "oh poop" moment on cash flow at the end of Q4...]

Edit: FWIW I didn't type "oh poop" above, in case anyone thought I did--that was filtered.

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 Downgrades

Barclays downgraded the rating for 8Point3 Energy Partners LP CAFD from Equal-Weight to Underweight, while reducing the price target from $16 to $14.

TerraForm Global Inc GLBL has been downgraded from Overweight to Equal-Weight, while the price target has been lowered from $10 to $4.

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/01/6162193/barclays-is-broadly-positive-on-solar-group 

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46 minutes ago, kknd1234 said:

 Downgrades

Barclays downgraded the rating for 8Point3 Energy Partners LP CAFD from Equal-Weight to Underweight, while reducing the price target from $16 to $14.

TerraForm Global Inc GLBL has been downgraded from Overweight to Equal-Weight, while the price target has been lowered from $10 to $4.

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/01/6162193/barclays-is-broadly-positive-on-solar-group 

I was hoping to see the reason for this downgrade but none was given.  Anybody could just do that.  I think they don't want to look bad so they just adjust the price to align with current SP to make them look good.  Wait until it goes up then they will upgrade and raise price target.

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On 1/22/2016 at 6:11 AM, odyd said:

100% right Jet,.

Interesting to note that a day after the downgrade (around $3.30), the stock quickly went up to the high of $4.90 (if you can believe Yahoo finance).  That is $1.60 pop for almost 50% increase within a few trading days.  So, will always take Analyst rating with grains of salt.  Make it a bucket full of salt.

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Anyone have a clear guess as to when the ex-dividend date is for TERP and GLBL? I have some recollection of that conversation happening here, but not remembering it now. Last quarter it was the 27th of Nov for both, which suggests end of Feb this quarter, but that seems to far out. Not overly familiar with dividend dates relative to quarterly earnings releases.

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Just spoke to IR on why no press release on earnings date. It is because now they are not 100% sure that it will be 25th.

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