odyd

TerraForm Global (GLBL)

251 posts in this topic

YieldCos would be severely affected by SUNE's BK. That's for sure.. I'm not worried as much regarding yieldcos liquidity in order to survive SUNE's BK, I'm instead worried about the implications of that on the current PPA projects for both yieldcos. Many could have the opportunity to either reduce the PPA price or get out of the contract entirely. I don't think there's a need for that if the project is performing as expected BUT a SUNE's BK is enough fear for some of these counterparties to feel it's better to get out now and ask questions later. That's the problem. We'll see how this evolves, fortunately I made my positions on both TERP and GLBL small enough to endure this pain all the way to the end. 

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My exposure to GLBL is getting big now. Close to 8% or total portfolio capital. Since I'm trading it and accumulating large trading gains and its still paying dividend now at above 55% yield I still view the holding as feasible from a risk/reward perspective. Tha prepayment of the India projects, might be a big loss for them though and they have a lot of work ahead on claiming their independence.

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1 hour ago, odyd said:

It would be good if analysts tried to assess whether the negatives they mention seem to be priced in already or not.

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47 minutes ago, explo said:

It would be good if analysts tried to assess whether the negatives they mention seem to be priced in already or not.

You want an person in the financial industry to actually work for their money? Pump and dump is much, much easier.

 

Part of me wants to say that there is value in GLBL at these prices, but it is really hard for me to buy a company that just announced they won't be releasing financial reports for the foreseeable future. The leadership of the company took absolutely no steps to reassure investors, which is very telling.

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14 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Part of me wants to say that there is value in GLBL at these prices,

They had 1 billion in cash and 850 million in equity end of Q3 and a market cap now of 240 million. They can take some massive percentage hit on their cash and equity and still be low priced here.

You want an person in the financial industry to actually work for their money? Pump and dump is much, much easier.

I don't expect it, but it would be nice if they did. They're not much help now.

it is really hard for me to buy a company that just announced they won't be releasing financial reports for the foreseeable future. The leadership of the company took absolutely no steps to reassure investors, which is very telling.

Valid point. My exposure is still feasible at less than 10% of the portfolio, but the bet is getting a bit big here. I hope it can get to the 2.30's so I can take some off the table at good gain.

 

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12 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said: You want an person in the financial industry to actually work for their money? Pump and dump is much, much easier.

 

Part of me wants to say that there is value in GLBL at these prices, but it is really hard for me to buy a company that just announced they won't be releasing financial reports for the foreseeable future. The leadership of the company took absolutely no steps to reassure investors, which is very telling.

They had 1 billion in cash and 850 million in equity end of Q3 and a market cap now of 240 million. They can take some massive percentage hit on their cash and equity and still be low priced here.

Yes but I really don't like how we have to use the past tense. We are looking back six months in time and can only wonder what acts of desperation SUNE has pulled since then. When calculating the market cap remember the class A shares that SUNE holds. I believe this is around a 33% dilution. Please let me know if I'm wrong as these class A shares greatly color my opinion.

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1 hour ago, BIPV Investor said:

Yes but I really don't like how we have to use the past tense. We are looking back six months in time and can only wonder what acts of desperation SUNE has pulled since then. When calculating the market cap remember the class A shares that SUNE holds. I believe this is around a 33% dilution. Please let me know if I'm wrong as these class A shares greatly color my opinion.

Yes that prepayment to SUNE for India projects should be considered lost. That's a $2 per share loss, but the stock recently IPO:d at $15 and has gotten cut down to $2. I think the devaluation might be exaggerated.

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1 hour ago, BIPV Investor said: Yes but I really don't like how we have to use the past tense. We are looking back six months in time and can only wonder what acts of desperation SUNE has pulled since then. When calculating the market cap remember the class A shares that SUNE holds. I believe this is around a 33% dilution. Please let me know if I'm wrong as these class A shares greatly color my opinion.

Yes that prepayment to SUNE for India projects should be considered lost. That's a $2 per share loss, but the stock recently IPO:d at $15 and has gotten cut down to $2. I think the devaluation might be exaggerated.

If you can sell any of those shares you just picked up around 2 today you got yourself a clean 20% after hours. GLBL is up 14% on the management change news. Not enough to close out any real positions though.

http://m.nasdaq.com/symbol/glbl

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