solarpete

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solarpete last won the day on March 20

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About solarpete

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  1. Good point. That's usually my downfall--I buy too much, too early. You once opined CSIQ could drop below 10--I wouldn't rule that out.
  2. Agreed--I'm looking at it as a trading vehicle only as well. It was bouncing around quite a bit a couple of months ago, which made it suitable for trading. But it's been in an extended downtrend for a while now, which even good earnings did not reverse.
  3. Did you catch the analyst's "success rate"? 44%. Worse than flipping a coin. I'm beginning to think I'm in the wrong business....
  4. Good question! I for one don't think it's a terrible investment (I have some), but it's not getting the respect it should. They're making money, blew away earnings estimates last quarter, and even guided to continued growth next year--but because the rate of that growth is now seen to be 20%, instead of 100%+, they sold off along with everyone else. With a trailing P/E under 6, and a forward P/E lower than that, they should be a good buy right now. Beats me how RUN trades below 5, but FSLR is worth 30 (well, 29 now)....
  5. Not sure there's much to say. Until we see ASPs stabilize, manufacturers are going to struggle. Installers should be doing better, but only Sunrun appears to be making any money, and the market (well, the Motley Fool, anyway) hates their continued reliance on leases.
  6. Yup, saw that. The one bright spot. Will wait a few days to see where the bottom is, then may buy a trading position. (Although JKS is dropping as well--depending on how low they go, I may use them for that trading stake instead.)
  7. That's what we all thought about the previous glut. Didn't happen then. Makes me very nervous that it won't happen now either.
  8. The problem isn't demand, despite the word "glut" still being used frequently. JKS certainly isn't seeing a glut, at least not for its products. The problem is falling margins, requiring ever-increasing shipment volumes to maintain the same level of profit. Usually, as shipments rise, so do profits. Not so for this industry. That trend has to eventually change--to use a calculus analogy, you can't reach the limit of infinite shipments with infinitesimal profits per unit shipped. The question becomes, what happens to each individual company as we approach that limit? Do they go under, or do they survive and emerge into a new, stable balance between ASPs and costs? And when does this happen?
  9. Good analysis. Thanks! ASPs dropping by 28% in one year--ouch! As long as ASPs were high and costs were high, dropping ASPs could be mitigated by lowering costs. But now that both ASPs and costs are quite low, do you have any insights on how much further can costs be lowered?
  10. Yes, I hold CSIQ, both a position from a much higher price and a trading position from the mid-15s (where I thought the bottom was a few months ago). If it drops after ER, I'll likely buy another trading position, as long as their guidance isn't dismal. I agree the market isn't always rational. But in this case, with expectations being negative, I think a drop before ER is logical. (It's also why I'm not buying more before ER. We might see a double whammy--a drop before ER based on poor expectations, and a further drop after ER if those expectations are confirmed.)
  11. I don't know. I just know you're pretty negative on all manufacturers right now, and since you're a bona fide expert on the industry, I expect analysts and knowledgeable traders to share your views (that is, you all come to more or less the same conclusions). So I'm surprised that you're surprised that CSIQ sells off prior to its ER, given the poor expectations.
  12. In other words, no change from current trends? Manufacturers to continue to barely break even, needing huge volume because of razor-thin margins? Great... (sarcasm)
  13. I thought you're expecting them to report lousy numbers? If others think the same, isn't this drop expected?
  14. It's been a few years since I played JASO, but if memory serves, they usually sold off on earnings day. Maybe that's changed in recent history?
  15. It's true that without the buyout, TSL would likely be much lower--but they would also have the potential to rebound to the mid-teens and higher. Indeed, management must be pretty certain that's where they're headed, or they wouldn't have offered a buyout in the first place.