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odyd last won the day on January 16

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About odyd

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    Airdrie, Alberta


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  1. So if BAM pays $11.50 per share of TERP to SUNEQ which owns 48M shares. However only 36% of the amount would be paid, the A class holders would receive no less than $3.88 per share on the top of $11.5 for each TERP share they have?
  2. The only yieldco dropping is PEGI. Lol I guess in sympathy to solar Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  3. Can someone explain this I see TERP dropping hard Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  4. I like how action is taking place with Terraforms, since not a lot of individuals are connected to yieldcos, industry buyers are the best option to reduce choice. I am hoping for Q2 to produce really nice action Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  5. Exclusive to brookfield it means just some details to solve. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  6. There seem to be a price detail for GLBL, s I assume price for TERP is the same, sounds like they would take GLBL of the market l, or they are ready to, TERP would be sponsored. Did I get it? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  7. If we look at the year in earnings, we have a threshold of 15% to 17% in gross margin, which can effectively stop profits. FSLR and SPWR already announced massive losses, SPWR extending them to 2018. Assuming Trina is gone and with JASO having nothing to show, only two companies can make the difference in this perception. I see Canadian make a lot of announcements beating JKS in expansions to Latin America and propose projects in Alberta, but their GM will be weak, based on recent calculations. I think there is no point to congregate around manufacturers. Although I am surprised how strong they are, I see solar stocks to sell still. We need some info and yearly announcements from them. Then we can expect market's reaction. PEGI, unfortunately, is sensitive to feelings around the industry. Still, I hope they will look better if controls are back and the dividend is raised. I am adding PEGI with the dividend to continue to average.
  8. This summary provides me with an opinion how shutting coal production may only allow for more existing renewable energy sources join the grid and not to remain underutilized. Jinko's plants were about 10 to 20% underutilized on average. Things are not as clear http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/china-s-monstrous-wind-and-solar-projects-most-of-it-is-wasted/article/484006
  9. What does this do for the ASP? China is a catchall for domestic manufacturing. 100GW currently is available. If the margins are small, it has no benefit for any of the companies. ASPs will not come back. It may stabilize but will not go up. The only win is to lower costs. However as discussed elsewhere the forecast to drop 4 cents from 29 to 25, has a three-years' timeline. The mechanism for ASP is not in control of companies. While they will not sell to lose, they will sell to force others off the market. The chances are that for next three years companies will have 5 to 15% margins, perhaps except Jinko, this spells low to no earnings. Canadian can collect on plant sales, lower debt levels. It may receive a lot of value from Japan, where I see projects to be sold to yieldco.
  10. The perception of yieldco is that their debt is cheaper than projects, since the risk of development versus the already operating facility. However, there are other investors involved, and perhaps due to tax equity, they need equity in the project to deliver the sale. It is hard to tell for me. Their debt to equity with the Friday's bond went over the ratio of 1. In the comparison to NYLD and NEP, they have a lot of room to borrow, as those two have a 2.4 ratio. Still, their plan is basically to avoid revolver, which will come back to around $475M or something of that nature. Between two projects Armow and Broadview, some $40M of CAFD is expected. I would probably think it is more of $35M. That is 20% more than 2016 result. It could warrant 20% growth of dividend in 10% volume per year. In considering my next action to buy CSIQ or to buy PEGI to average down, I made an observation of their equity losing 13% of value due to material controls issue announced in November. If this is addressed, it is required and should be addressed, and if they grow the dividend by 10%, the stock could easily get 20 to 25% in equity back from the current price, to $24.60- $24.70. At that point, new equity could be issued, and produce more expansions with high debt ratios.
  11. Canadian is proposing 24MW project in Alberta http://www.auc.ab.ca/regulatory_documents/ProceedingDocuments/2017/22296.pdf
  12. This article suggest Canadian Solar will have production facility in Argentina, and participate in supply to 6 parks http://mediamza.com/mendoza/130946-se-confirmo-la-presencia-de-canadian-solar-en-el-consorcio-“mendoza-solar”
  13. My article shows that cost of debt is less than the cost of equity. I would imagine it is the reverse. Projects have such a good return that buying for cash makes more sense than borrowing against them. Also, availability of capital may have something to do with it.
  14. Interestestengly some projects owned by PEGI without the debt at all. This is why their debt level is below 1. This will be changing as more money will be borrowed. In fact, the change is happening now with the corporate bonds. I am hoping however that in time people will be buying more of the stock due to dividend growth.
  15. Perhaps the discussion is warranted to understand what we know about reporting for the company like PEGI and how this falls within the project dynamic. So first is CAFD, cash available for distribution. I have attached structured calculation of the CAFD from Q3 for PEGI. Is CAFD a cash flow described in the IRR? We know that project which has IRR greater than WACC or weighted average cost of capital, is profitable. How is project's relationship to CAFD described in the announcements? If I take the Armow project, it speaks about payback of 9.5 to 10.5 multiples using average five years of CAFD. So the CAFD generated is about $13.9M at 9.5. Why just cash receives payback and not debt? Is it because CAFD already has both principal and interest addressed? If I use 13.23M (adjusted down by about 10% half way from original) 19 years of cash flows project's IRR is about 7.6%, borrowing at 5.87% with 30% tax rate is about 4.1%, so it makes sense. I looked at the project dynamic. This one gets about 10 cents US per kWh. 90MW at 365/8 is about $27M per year. To pay it off in 18 years I would have to use about $13.6M per year on a debt of $199M with 4% interest. The amount of debt is actual; rest is my calculation. Above shows that IRR is higher than WACC, it indicates that CAFD is after deduction of principal and interest. This project is with Samsung, and there is an economic adder of CAD $0.27 per kWh. Pattern would get some $52M from the province for it. At the end not that bad, but looking scary at $3.68 per watt initially. If the $52M is applied to debt level the $13.6M becomes about $10M for 18 years. Based on those numbers this is probably already in calculation.