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odyd last won the day on February 25

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About odyd

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  1. Travis came unglued. LOL. They are losing a residential business, which supposedly is going to make SunPower rich according to Travis. NRG Energy is going big on commercial and utility scale. https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/21/how-a-major-utility-fell-on-its-face-in-renewable.aspx?yptr=yahoo
  2. In fact if you were to take a gain on the disposal the income is negative, However, it is probably in the range of about $14M for the quarter.
  3. $0.41 per watt in Q4, from $0.49 (they said it was $0.50 in Q3). At the average $0.35 cost, that is a precisely $14.6% GM. They have about 3 cents over the in-house. So if Q1 drops to $0.39, this becomes 10% GM on $0.35, and loss. They say 12 to 15%, not sure how if the ASP dropped and poly is up. They are saying that ASP is $0.37 to $0.39 for the first half. There are only 4 cents left to hit their range of cost-cutting by the end of the year. A second half is 10 to 15% drop. That $0.39 becomes 0.33, and their cost is 0.30 that is 9.5% margin. So, they are going for volume now. The balance sheet is an improvement on a project debt, but they like to run without money. $1.1B in AR and $1.3B in AP. Horrible. They are expanding, scarry.
  4. We had expectations JKS would do best, and still dropped GM by 4%. I am dissapointed that nobody shared observations from cc, Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  5. Any details from cc? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  6. Extremely good, no sign of any stress in the business. GM drop was expected, but I doubt module volume of 28 to 36% in 2017 was expected. In the last glut, Chinese companies grew shipments, and I do not expect a difference now. Sounds like Jinko prepared itself for the shift very well. Now the most interesting parts will be said in the cc about forecast and ASP. ASP is the only soft play here. Does this mean expanding or buying volume of the market for JKS?
  7. I can see explo that you think this is a done deal, but to me there is a risk in those plans. Perhaps that is already accounted in this price, but in my view, this is very wealthy evaluation. I suppose the market can be irrational in more ways than negative. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  8. I am not doing any guesses any more, it seems it doesn't matter Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  9. My estimate is per watt, irrelevant of cells. Think of % of volume and move the scale up for modules. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  10. Congrats on timings, well done Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  11. Has anyone got their money's worth at this point? What is the plan here for any of the readers? You holding to get even are you buying, perhaps selling? I am hugely confused with the market, I do not get it, but I guess those who hold long, must be recovering, is anyone on this forum able to produce a reason why someone would buy FSLR at $36 knowing that the company has no ability to make money? I get it; it was at $70 at one point. It looks cheap 2019 is the day in the sun, all this bs. JASO just said they had the lowest revenue in three-quarters and sold more modules. I think I am going concentrate only on analysis of yieldcos; they are certainly predictable. I hope there are lasting. There is no reason here, so I suppose nothing changed with the industry. At least for me is opposite side of the spectrum.
  12. I have this feeling that some sort of trading mechanisms caused last three days , including Friday. I am concerned another set of momo traders got behind those swings independently of industry conditions. When things will reflect the situation another herd of injured will reappear pissing and moaning about solar volatility. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  13. The Q1 will be worst, that is why it matters. Industry is in bad place, does not matter now, prices are irrational until someone needs to hold a bag, time will tell. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  14. PEGI Q4 Results
  15. Looks from the 16B number, as a top figure for Q4 was 3.9B in sales or $567M at the upper part of the guidance, which is lower than revenue for the last two-quarters. They also put back 200MW I assume modules for the math so call it 1.5GW shipped in Q4. That is somewhere between $0.38 and $0.40 per watt on the high note. The calculation offered here is not accurate; it is an estimated speculation.