sunnypease

Solar Investor
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sunnypease last won the day on January 20

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About sunnypease

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  1. I wonder how much of Jinko & JA Solar's boost in Q4 shipments came directly off of FSLR & SPWR's order books?
  2. It wasn't translated onto seeking alpha yet. Is there another place that does transcriptions faster?
  3. They said the 2H will be strong in the US. And that China will install 20GW in the first half & then 8GW in the second half. Also the poverty alleviation program is extra on top of that. Also, in the news recently that India will double it's solar park target (but it's residential target was non realistic) to 40gw from 20gw by 2020 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/02/24/india-solar-park-target-should-not-be-limited-to-40-gw-if-demand-is-there-says-mercom/ Credit Suisse refutes this > 20GW claim for China in recent reports.
  4. Mr. Market is a funny man. JKS down 2% and SPWR up 1.5% in PM. Meanwhile JKS is eating SPWR's lunch & dinner & probably breakfast too.
  5. I think he said 37 - 39 for the ASP?
  6. JKS results are out. http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16753679-jinkosolar-announces-fourth-quarter-full-year-2016-financial-results Seems like their asp was .43 Their GM was 14.3%. That would be a .37 cost. So it seems inline. Anyone have an idea why JKS is getting sold PM?
  7. About that bottom... Researching solars this weekend I guessed why many may be thinking the bottom for solar is in. ASP drop by quarter: Q3: (20+%) Q4: (8%) 2/3 of Q1:(2.8%) Mr. Market thinks the drop in ASPs is done. Now he plans for companies to survive and then grow while demand picks up / 2nd tier supply dies. According to Credit Suisse there will still be a large imbalance between supply & demand this year & we may see another big price drop in 2H 2017. However, news from China can be confusing about the GW they will install this year. Positive events could be: China FIT cuts create rush of demand, Europe does not extend solar tariffs, Republicans advance carbon tax, others convince Trump not to back away from CPP / Paris treaty. But maybe none of those are needed as Chinese solar companies can scrape by with these small positive / negative margins for a few quarters. So maybe it really is a bottom?
  8. Jaso is a good study case because their biz is almost all modules. Also they don't have much of a downstream business. It seems that with JASO one can more easily see what is happening in the industry. I had mixed up ASPs and costs. Q3 JASO had .38 blended module cost. You said .38-.40 revenue. They expected low 40s. If their cost came down a penny to .37, then they could have .01-.03/W revenue. Margin 2-8% 1.5GW would be 15-45M revenue before operational costs which were 68 million in Q3. They could cut out 8 million R&D so you end with (45)-(15)M for the quarter.
  9. Is this combination of modules & cells what they mean by their "blended cost"? Or should I break do a proportionality calculation to determine module ASP. According to the Q3, their blended cost should be low 40s. Sounds like a loss of a few cents/W * 1.5 GW? 30-40 million dollar loss Does JASO have much downstream they can use to hide losses? JKS is not trading very optimistically today, relative to the others. I wonder if losses will make FSLR go down or up. Probably up!
  10. Robert -- your estimates are for module prices? Because the report I saw on pv-magazine gave a GW shipment and said it was a combination of modules & cells.
  11. But do FSLR & SPWR buyers even pay attention to JKS & CSIQ earnings reports? How will FSLR & SPWR buyers know that things are bad in the solar space? Certainly Travis @ fool.com won't tell them.
  12. If it's just oil... people are beyond dumb.
  13. Aha! It's probably just oil! When oil was up 1.5% Tuesday the solar stocks roared. When oil was down 1.5% Wednesday the solar stocks dumped. Today oil up 2%! buy buy buy solar! Am I shorting solar stocks or am I shorting offshore drillers?
  14. Got to learn to go slow shorting these heavily shorted stocks. With most float in Total's hands and 40% short float for the rest, it's pretty easy for Total to trigger a short squeeze if it wants to. Maybe that is why they bought just 2/3! Market is fading. I don't think (OK I pray) that this won't be a full blown short squeeze day. I realize most of you are longs, but what will it take to kill this solar bull run? It makes no sense.
  15. Damn I knew I should have closed that short at 33.50 yesterday. So far it doesn't seem like an out of control short squeeze. Anyhow, I can't imagine these levels will hold for too long with FSLR. The Series 6 rewards are too far away. Earnings get worse. How was that JASO pre-report?