sunnypease

Solar Investor
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sunnypease last won the day on January 20

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About sunnypease

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  1. Hi Pete, That's a good point you make that we can just wait & see. We follow these stocks closer than most & will be able to see early on once things have turned positive again or if FSLR somehow pulls it off.
  2. Isn't this really big news? https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/18/china-suspends-104-construction-coal-power-projects/ China suspending 104 massive coal plants? It'll take a whole lot of solar installations to equal those. This seems like very big very good news for clean energy.
  3. I thought they make money when they have a good supply of investor capital. So it'd be good to publicize the IRR. If you were going to buy a windfarm, you'd want to know that windfarm's IRR. We the investors are being asked to finance windfarms. So I would expect that info to be available. Can the number be calculated? I suppose it can be estimated? I was surprised to see that they have been reporting losses for several quarters. Also missing estimates. That doesn't strike me as great, but then again I don't fully understand the business. I need to read more & educate myself. Matt
  4. Sounds like the only way to make the big money is if FSLR pulls through with Series 6. And the only way we'll know is if we make a friend that works at FSLR. Like in the Big Short... we gotta go to the bar where the engineers drink, hang out, & get to know those guys. I'm serious!
  5. Hi Pete - Your thoughts make a lot of sense. Do you think that once a company has a certain scale that it will be difficult for new entrants to compete? Or is this a market where anyone with a billion dollars can set up shop & start selling? I'm not normally supporting FSLR, but if they can somehow create CdTe panels with a lower $/W than cSi, then that'd be a moat. Everyone, including a few investors here, would be scratching their heads wondering how they did it. -Matt
  6. It is encouraging to hear you say it's good. Almost 50% higher borrowing costs though. I need to look at the PPA trends. For solar they are going down & FSLR / SPWR say uneconomical. I hope the same is not happening for wind. Do you know what sort of IRR Pattern has been having on their wind farms? I googled & looked through a CC transcript but nothing jumped out. Does that sort of number need to be calculated? Thank you- Matt
  7. PEGI priced their notes at 5.875% For 350 million USD due 2024. Market seems to be happy with that for now.
  8. Hi Explo - Sorry, I didn't mean that I expect earnings to be weaker than guided. More like if they guide the same numbers as before, maybe people will realize it really is just max 0.45 EPS for 2017. That, combined with possibly weaker reports from everyone else might drive down the price. Or maybe they'll have positive series 6 news & the stock will shoot through the roof. About the size. I am not a materials scientist or PV engineer, but I would imagine making CdTe panels is more difficult than making TVs. For the simple reason we already have these giant TVs, but we do not yet have large format CdTe panels. I really do hope they can pull it off, but it does seem like a big technological leap. Another reason going from small to big is a leap... if it were easy First Solar would have done it a while ago. As he said, margins would be much better on those large format panels. Another negative is that many smart people have tried & failed at making cheaper than silicon panels. I do not understand the reason for CIGS failures, but there have been some serious smart & well financed people trying this over longer periods of time that ultimately failed. I think the larger the surface area, the more difficult making them becomes due to how the energy must travel across the surface. And it's probably a sort of non linear type of increase in complexity. On the other side of the scale is the efficiency. FSLR management has promised the moon: larger panels && higher efficiency at the same time. If Series 6 is real & those $/W are real, then I bet we'll see some extreme buying of FSLR sooner rather than later. Matt
  9. Hi Robert - I've looked over past posts here & I see that time & time again you have been very forward with your thinking & thoughtful for the community. Early during SUNEQ meltdown, you warned readers to close their positions. I'm sorry that I ask too many questions sometimes. What I started doing is going back & deleting ones that didn't seem to add or spark any worthwhile conversation. The basic problem is that I spend too much time on this stuff. And I'm completely new to investing. But slowly, after reading more & more seeking alpha articles & notes from Credit Suisse, I'm learning more about what numbers are important. I need to focus more on that & less on the daily movement of FSLR. I realize it is a lot of work. I'd be happy to help out with the research for anyone here. It's too bad it's been a rough road for many. It's been bumpy for me too, in a short 6 months I've lost money on FSLR as a long and as a short. But it does not matter. Clean energy is certainly the future. If some of these companies can make moats, they'll do ridiculously well. Once people realize the change is happening, it's going to be a stampede. It looks like there was a taste of that in the early days of solar stocks. Matt
  10. 1. I think we'll see a mini market meltdown as trump trades unwind. High expectations meeting reality of a stronger dollar. Also Trump reality sets in and I think will move the clean energy stocks down. 2. However, it seems that the ASP decline is over for the first half of the year. I don't understand the second half. Things that were written more than a month ago predict a 2H drop in demand from China. However, latest numbers say 2016 demand from China was much greater than had been predicted. 3. 2018 was predicted to be the rebound year for demand. I think we'll continue to see drastic effects of climate change & the world will get only more serious. 4. FSLR... see my prior post. 5. It can be a good strategy to average into CSIQ & JKS. They seem to be winners. It is completely certain to us & not so certain by the vast majority, that clean energy will be BIG. It will replace almost all other forms of generation. I came to this conclusion about 10 years ago as I'm sure many of you also did. Does it matter if we buy at 13 or at 8 when the final values will be 80 or more? If they get to 80 depends on if they can create moats or will they become mere commodity. Also a big question to ask is.... will CSIQ & JKS survive a glut? This is where I should be spending my time... researching this instead of watching FSLR daily fluctuations. Matt
  11. I've been shorting FSLR since Q3 CCs @ 29. It's been hell. To make a long story short. FSLR does not want to drop. People believe the hype. They don't understand the size of the technological hurdle. I think it will take some new negative industry news to move FSLR much below 32-35. Several analysts put the value at < 30. Forbes & I think Baird put the value at 40. Those are the most recent numbers. People love the story of US beating China with technology. People don't understand that Series 4 was small for a technological reason. When an analyst asked about what had been overcome... the CEO brushed the question aside by saying they have done it before, they'll do it again. Typical management attitude. Also, if you read on glassdoor, it sounds like FSLR has serious morale issues at the moment. Employees seem to be losing faith in their management. Maybe when FSLR confirms their weak 2017 earnings in their Q4 we'll see some downside? Or maybe the techies pull it off. If so, it'll be a great thing for the planet. Matt
  12. That makes sense. Yes, CSIQ hit 10.50 at some point post Trump. And it was up from there. Seems to be just trading in a range now. As for Q4, ASPs were down 8%. But CSIQ somehow sells for higher than the average ASP. Also, you had said that you were afraid CSIQ would not be able to reduce their production costs fast enough. With Q4 CC approaching, I'll try & figure out what it will be like for CSIQ. CSIQ or JKS definitely seem to be the top picks for PV makers.
  13. Just a reminder ( you had asked that we remind you).. don't buy CSIQ over $10. I guess these downstream sales have you impressed.
  14. I'm sorry I don't understand. You think that the street estimate is too high, but you plan to buy CSIQ? Do you mean you will wait for a Q4 miss & then buy? Thank you- Matt
  15. I looked into it, you were right. Duh. Just look at past press releases. It looks like last time they issued senior notes, it went through 3 phases: proposed, priced, & closed. Last time it went through those 3 phases in just a week with a rate of 4%. Sorry if I ask dumb questions sometimes. There must be other newbies here too though. If we all understand, can make good investment choices. I think our goals are similar: to make a little money meanwhile benefit the planet with clean energy. Matt