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Showing content with the highest reputation since 01/22/2017 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    There's low probability of this breaking $40 tomorrow. The 200MA is down trending and it will require more than today's ER to break that. That's from a technical perspective. From a fundamental perspective, things have not only changed but worsened a bit. The adjustment to revenue to the upside is the result of a different accounting method required by FASB. It's true that prices have stabilized as of late, but there's ZERO a indication that now things will turn up for the better. This continues to be a demand and supply situation and I don't see supply being reduced significantly (impairments, bankruptcies, consolidations). Granted solarcos are better prepared this time around and more cautious, but price competition continues to be cutthroat. As for the series 6, although they say it's going as planned, there's still not only execution risk (albeit limited) but timing. It'll be at least 2 years for FSLR to start benefiting from series 6 panels, at least on a module-only basis. The First series 6 panels produced will go towards their own plants construction. The book to bill ratio continues to deteriorate and so, I don't see anything for this company to reverse the trend, if anything it MIGHT stabilize in the mid $30s until further notice. I also don't see FSLR going into the low $20s until something materially worse comes out in their progress, or the industry as a whole takes another downturn.
  2. 1 point
    TSL has recovered the dip after EGM. There are several SEC filings this month showing that hedge funds have loaded up. Are people here still holding that 15% discount to buyout price?
  3. 1 point
    CSIQ sell filled
  4. 1 point
    I have download to recommend, Interesting article cold war of module prices, a quote assisting the article on page 23 from Finlay Colville is quite pessimistic
  5. 1 point
    it was a report from Citi division
  6. 1 point
    Yes, this is why Q4 cannot come fast enough. Counting all points in this will be the high point of the next 3 to 4 quarters. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  7. 1 point
    I cannot see the scenario of recovery played out before, the recovery is even identified. The asp wars the lower demand and certainly sour outlook for the US companies does not offer a lot of support. I have targets when I want to be back in, but I am surprised that the market is reactive with credit where credit is not due. Time will tell. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  8. 1 point
    Sorry, Odyd, my trading scheme does not work well in sustained downtrends, so I hope prices stabilize and rebound a little from here, and don't go any lower. I'm hoping for a little good news from Q4, if not from sales during the quarter, then from the outlook for 2017. I saw on this board where JKS recently inked a deal for 1 GW of cells. That's quite a large order, so their order books should be filling up. That should translate to a decent outlook. And I hope that trend extends to other companies. I certainly don't anticipate a return to 2013/2014 highs, but a nice 30% bounce from here would do wonders for my returns (grin)....
  9. 1 point
    I honestly don't think there's a way to predict this volatility, even with neural nets. The price action is just too random. Sometimes solars will go up several days on no news. Sometimes they go down. Sometimes they rise in the morning, only to fall back in the afternoon. Sometimes they fall in the morning, only to rise in the afternoon. All this on anemic volume. And of course, news may or may not trump everything--and even the reaction to news is unpredictable; sometimes solars go down on what should be good news, and vice versa. But I agree with you on one thing--go find something else to do with your day beyond just watching the market. Decide what you want to do with what stock at what price point, and enter appropriate limit orders. Then go do something productive while you wait for those orders to fill. If they do, it's an added bonus to your day. If they don't, there's always tomorrow. Good luck to us all!
  10. 1 point
    Knighthead just got involved in a big way !!! They believe Glbl is worths at least 7.21. Go Glbl http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20170127/AQ22E2228222TJZ2222H2ZN99LST8222B292/
  11. 1 point
    I am not sure if anyone saw that FPL, which is owned by NextEra (NEE) just ordered $317M worth of modules. Last year 1.5GW were ordered by NRG Energy, sponsor of NYLD. Hanwha has those orders. My point is that both utilities used to buy from FSLR. Buying so many modules suggest that First Solar is no longer supplier and builder of plants for the two. I think FSLR is going to be a painful holding as it will drift off to mid-20s, in my opinion within 6 to 8 months. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/hanwha-q-cells-garners-317.1-million-module-supply-deal-with-florida-utilit In an addtionaI read, both, including Southern are interested in growing their wind resources. On the other hand, I see that Top Runner program is getting traction in China. JASO was big on it, and I am not sure how hard Canadian wants to be in China, but that is the way to weed out small ones. Story on Malaysia is holding to Jinko. Canadian is looking better by the hour.
  12. 1 point
    You don't have to wait for a particular company to achieve a revolutionary breakthrough (what are the odds of that happening anyway?). You can also make good money, albeit at a slower pace, by trading the volatility. I've found the key to success for that strategy to be not committing too much capital to any one trade. That way, if that position initially goes against you (the price continues to drop), you can hold it until it eventually comes back up, and meanwhile you still have buying power to try another trading position at a lower price--maybe in the same company, maybe in another. With small positions and a movement of only a few percent, gains are small on each trade--but if you can execute several winning trades a week, it adds up over several months, during a time when solar prices overall just languish. And I see solar prices languishing for at least another year.
  13. 1 point
    Yes, I hope more too. It's even less since the exact percentage SUNE gets is 36.9%. I'm a lot more optimistic about GLBL.
  14. 1 point
    I'm not sure how hard it is for a new company to enter the PV manufacturing market, as there is a significant up-front capital investment, but by now there is more than enough existing capacity to justify calling solar cells a commodity even without new market entrants. And the trend for ever-cheaper cells continues. Cut-throat competition forces manufacturers to drop their prices, which drives two processes. First, investment in cost-cutting procedures and technology, be it basic R&D in the design of solar cells or just avoiding waste in existing manufacturing processes. That's a good thing all around, for the company (lower costs means they can lower prices without reducing margins, all other things being equal [except they're not, but that's a separate discussion--see below]), for consumers (lower prices for PV products eventually means lower electricity prices, whether consumers purchase their own PV systems or just buy power from other companies/organizations owning/operating such systems), and for the planet (cheaper renewable power will eventually supplant dirty fossil fuels just by economic forces alone, never mind arguments between climate skeptics and those of us living in the real world). Second, and not so good all around, is a drive to increase capacity in a desperate attempt to make up in volume what you're losing in unit profitability. (In other words, if you used to make 10% profit on a given unit, and now you're only making 5%, you have to sell twice as many to maintain your profits.) That's what you're seeing now--prices are dropping faster than companies can cut costs, leading to this ever-intensifying competition for market share. Odyd has remarked on this before as well. But this is a self-destructive spiral--the lower selling prices become, the more I have to sell at those lower prices, which drives my competitors to lower their prices even more to do the same, which I have to match, etc., etc. That's why I say PV manufacturing has now become a commodity. At some point, that spiral has to end--no one can sell at below production cost indefinitely; weaker financial players will start going under, and the system will stabilize. But it's hard to know if we're at that stabilization point yet--witness the continuing announcement of capacity expansions by large players, even while market data suggests the overcapacity situation is not yet resolved. And once we do reach stabilization, the once-fat profit margins will be razor-thin. Not an economic situation that fills an investor with confidence. As for FSLR, their sales will tell the tale. If they do come up with a technology that provides a significant price advantage to their competitors, and that technology can be protected, yes, they would have a moat. But they're currently locked in the same desperate struggle as their competitors--just look at their stock performance, plummeting from a high above $70/share, due to disappearing profits. That alone tells you they're not able to significantly differentiate themselves in the current marketplace. Maybe they will come up with that miracle breakthrough--or maybe one of their competitors will. There'll be plenty of time to "load the boat" when that happens. For now, though, I'd say it's too early to make that bet. Just my 2 cents' worth.... Pete
  15. 1 point
    Hi Matt, Thank you for your reply. Well, as you probably know by now, very few people take part in the discussions. Solar has taken a toll on many, but this was never a big chatter box. Mostly people read. BTW, I did not want to offend you, and I hope I did not. I guess I am used to people generating opinions on their research, so some of the questions are basic, this is why I asked if you invest any time to research, as I am used to exchanging points of view rather than how to find facts, etc. I am relatively busy, and I frankly do not have time to respond to those type of items. I expect anyone who wants to invest in own their investment, meaning why they do. Ther are thousands of posts here that you can see how we have evolved. I am disappointed that most people gave up, but I am not surprised. Solar industry growing at 25% a year on average from 2010 delivered only in 2013/ 2014 for investors and took back everything or nearly everything it gave. It is tough to make money here and subsequently, tough to even find the energy to get the forum active or alive. Sorry to disappoint.
  16. 1 point
    Looking at Yahoo for 2017, Canadian is forecasted to get around 1.96 per share, I am surprised by this estimate. I suppose someone is counting on 49% of 1.2GW of projects or 600MW and getting 10% GM on it. It is going to be interesting, I think with this dividend payment I will start buying CSIQ.