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  1. Today
  2. Thanks Jet. This time around it looks much better than previous surges to ATH that were immediately followed by several months drawdown. This time the initial surge to ATH day was followed through by a moderate ATH growth the next day and then a two-day breather with moderate retreat followed by yesterday's big surge to a new ATH again and this time the stocks were actually the biggest contributors to the surge. It lead to the portfolio Alpha finally turning positive yesterday.
  3. Rating Action: Moody's withdraws Canadian Solar's Ba2 rating RATINGS RATIONALE Moody's has withdrawn the rating for its own business reasons. Please refer to the Moody's Investors Service's Policy for Withdrawal of Credit Ratings, available on its website, www.moodys.com.
  4. http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-aramco-selects-lead-underwriters-for-100-billion-ipo-664349.html Holy cow! $2 trillion market cap! IPO of the century? Those underwriter are getting rich.. More fuel from a "fuel" IPO..
  5. Thanks for your comments ravalos. odyd, ravalos, my guess on the surge is general stock market exuberance. With high demand for stocks there is a valuation risk building up and the market is now likely getting into the mode of looking for stocks with less valuation risk (not too extended PB and PS for example) e.g. due discount from near-term operational risks. It seems the market just discovered something to tap in the solar sector in its hunt for more stock. Let me just add that it is not just the expected Trump fiscal stimulus policy fueling an already up to speed US economy that is sending stocks higher. Globally, especially in Europe, there's been US inspired monetary fueling by central banks going on for a long enough time now to finally see the economies here heating up significantly. Add a solid China and we have a global economy that has just woken up from a long slumber. The chase for stocks might seem irrational now from near-term sector and company specific perspectives. Things cheap and not on the verge of bankruptcies might surge as low priced books are appreciated on assumptions that they will grow when the tide lifts all boats. Also remember that solar is dependent on positive sentiment causing households and companies to take the risk to invest surplus in rooftop panels etc., so the market likely expects the heated global economy to eventually push the supply-demand balance to a (panel) seller's market from the current buyer's market. It's a risk-on market and the solar sector benefits from it despite its near-term glut issue.
  6. Hi Everyone, What do you think of the $100Billion from ARAMCO proceeds to be pumped into renewables story? That would be placements and takeovers ? How else could it be done ? Could some of the jump in SP be strategic stakes being built for this? has been some action on FSLR and PEGI lately, maybe more? Wondering when next beneficial ownership statements are out ?especially CSIQ? From fundamentals /event driven solarco SP not v convincing to me atm but what about from the perspective of the people who brought us the dot com bubble? Load up, pump .....
  7. I wonder what is this about https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-withdraws-Canadian-Solars-Ba2-rating--PR_362406?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZTQyX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d~20170221_PR_362406
  8. The project in Japan was signed up in 2016; If you check 10Q from Q3, it is listed for 59MW and has PPA. Tribal was also listed, and now it is gone. It is like 6 of those projects. So this is old, not a new project. Not a single one of them signed a project, exception JKS. When the cost is greater than the price, this is what is written off. Read the headlines I posted, and you already read my article on SPWR.
  9. FSLR announced a project today in Japan -- actually they announced the loan (did not see an interest rate). The Japanese loan was about $4/per W of the project. What do you mean by project costs being written off? You mean they are no longer hoping to sell them but are declaring them as a loss / selling them below cost? Thank you- Matt
  10. When it comes to stock price, things can be just different on a personal level. One-year FSLR is 40% down, and CSIQ is 26% down, but in three months CSIQ is 44% up, and FSLR is 26% up. So far I only saw module supply deals. I did not see any new projects. You got 300MW project canceled, that will hurt FSLR. I did not see any module comments, and the 9% drop in 2017 costs from 2016, is met with 30% drop in 2017 on ASP. FSLR, SPWR will not make money in 2017, now it is about whether they lose more than they have said. FSLR reports they are going to lose as much as $600M in cash this year. SPWR will lose $125M in cash after losing $471M in 2016. SPWR can break apart by 2018. So do we have a case of CSIQ and JKS not taking any hits and surviving, over $1B in write-downs in two US companies? How likely is this? My big worry for CSIQ is that projects cost are being written off, FSLR now confirmed this and this is what SPWR did in Q4.
  11. Market thinks solar has hit a bottom. Maybe we have hit a bottom? Imagine that ASPs stop their decline. Could existing companies continue & make money & expand with these prices? CSIQ, yes. correct? JKS also yes. SPWR, maybe yes because they get by on project sales & utility solar may get started again soon. Worst comes to worse they can sell other people's modules (which is sort of what they are doing with their Series E) FSLR, maybe yes, if Series 6 pulls through. Management sounded like it was a fairly straightforward engineering effort.
  12. Yesterday
  13. Interesting this loss is bigger than the last glut time. At least last time there were plants to be built now little margins and too much competition.
  14. 10K will be an interesting read,
  15. No those details make a bit more sense "First Solar also said it had been forced to write down the value of its Barilla Solar project in Texas because a slide in power prices since its construction in 2014 had hurt profitability. Shares of the company, which also reported better-than-expected profit and revenue, were up less than 1 percent at $36.62 in trading after the bell on Tuesday. First Solar raised its 2017 net sales forecast to $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion from $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. The new revenue forecast allows for full recognition on the 250-megawatt Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas. First Solar said the more than 300-megawatt Tribal Solar project, which was planned for the Fort Mojave Indian Reservation in Arizona, would not be built. The company's contract to sell the power to California utility Southern California Edison was canceled."
  16. Thank you that makes sense, incredible as is, Chinese are riding Trump's waves. FSLR seem a bit shifty with their reporting. They are adding 55 to 80M restructuring cost in association with acceleration to series 6 in 2017. Taking $728M in those in one-quarter and still needing more. I am afraid they are polishing margins to positive on S4.
  17. Very difficult to gauge investors sentiment in this industry. But you have to attribute the recent surge to the whole Trump optimism which is now trickling down to solar. That coupled with the fact that the solar downturn this time around is not as bloody as the 2012's (solarcos share prices were experiencing significant losses right before this recent surge though), 60% or more, so this could merely be a dead cat bounce. FSLR is still 40%+ below its high. Things seem to have stabilized for the moment, but I don't see better margins being materialized in the short term. It's a wait and see mode still but the overall market just keeps on rising under the premise of further tax cuts and significant infrastructure spending. There's some impact of that in solar.
  18. Ravalos, Thank you, I understand the same dynamic. Can you try to explain the surge of value in solar shares? I feel things are insanely positive in the last couple of weeks. Is Trump effect hitting renewable energy now? Chinese one as well?
  19. There's low probability of this breaking $40 tomorrow. The 200MA is down trending and it will require more than today's ER to break that. That's from a technical perspective. From a fundamental perspective, things have not only changed but worsened a bit. The adjustment to revenue to the upside is the result of a different accounting method required by FASB. It's true that prices have stabilized as of late, but there's ZERO a indication that now things will turn up for the better. This continues to be a demand and supply situation and I don't see supply being reduced significantly (impairments, bankruptcies, consolidations). Granted solarcos are better prepared this time around and more cautious, but price competition continues to be cutthroat. As for the series 6, although they say it's going as planned, there's still not only execution risk (albeit limited) but timing. It'll be at least 2 years for FSLR to start benefiting from series 6 panels, at least on a module-only basis. The First series 6 panels produced will go towards their own plants construction. The book to bill ratio continues to deteriorate and so, I don't see anything for this company to reverse the trend, if anything it MIGHT stabilize in the mid $30s until further notice. I also don't see FSLR going into the low $20s until something materially worse comes out in their progress, or the industry as a whole takes another downturn.
  20. The new revenue forecast allows for full revenue recognition on the Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas, Nevada, the company said. So I guess, the project margins are so bad they will take 1.5% of the entire year guidance? That calls for $40 tomorrow for sure now.
  21. Is anyone able to comment here? The forecast went from making $0.45 per share now to lose 0.05 per share and even losing the operating profit. Operating margin is to be negative. I am not sure I ever saw this without impairment. Margins are down; revenue is up. Would like to learn what the detail is. I guess $40 tomorrow.
  22. Anyone following SOL these days? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  23. Explo, Good job! I like your approach.
  24. Looks like there is a chase for CSIQ shares ahead of FSLR's report this afternoon.
  25. Maybe new reality is not about making any money, and stocks were too low. Not sure, things seem to contradict a lot with this industry. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  26. Rising funds are now triggering broad stock buys. Seems like the eleventh hour since they are getting out of the gates now.
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