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  1. Today
  2. Hi Pete, That's a good point you make that we can just wait & see. We follow these stocks closer than most & will be able to see early on once things have turned positive again or if FSLR somehow pulls it off.
  3. Yesterday
  4. So if BAM pays $11.50 per share of TERP to SUNEQ which owns 48M shares. However only 36% of the amount would be paid, the A class holders would receive no less than $3.88 per share on the top of $11.5 for each TERP share they have?
  5. I think class A will only get 75% of the total price payed, which would be only about (113m+61m)*0,75*4,25/113m=4,90.
  6. I'm not sure how hard it is for a new company to enter the PV manufacturing market, as there is a significant up-front capital investment, but by now there is more than enough existing capacity to justify calling solar cells a commodity even without new market entrants. And the trend for ever-cheaper cells continues. Cut-throat competition forces manufacturers to drop their prices, which drives two processes. First, investment in cost-cutting procedures and technology, be it basic R&D in the design of solar cells or just avoiding waste in existing manufacturing processes. That's a good thing all around, for the company (lower costs means they can lower prices without reducing margins, all other things being equal [except they're not, but that's a separate discussion--see below]), for consumers (lower prices for PV products eventually means lower electricity prices, whether consumers purchase their own PV systems or just buy power from other companies/organizations owning/operating such systems), and for the planet (cheaper renewable power will eventually supplant dirty fossil fuels just by economic forces alone, never mind arguments between climate skeptics and those of us living in the real world). Second, and not so good all around, is a drive to increase capacity in a desperate attempt to make up in volume what you're losing in unit profitability. (In other words, if you used to make 10% profit on a given unit, and now you're only making 5%, you have to sell twice as many to maintain your profits.) That's what you're seeing now--prices are dropping faster than companies can cut costs, leading to this ever-intensifying competition for market share. Odyd has remarked on this before as well. But this is a self-destructive spiral--the lower selling prices become, the more I have to sell at those lower prices, which drives my competitors to lower their prices even more to do the same, which I have to match, etc., etc. That's why I say PV manufacturing has now become a commodity. At some point, that spiral has to end--no one can sell at below production cost indefinitely; weaker financial players will start going under, and the system will stabilize. But it's hard to know if we're at that stabilization point yet--witness the continuing announcement of capacity expansions by large players, even while market data suggests the overcapacity situation is not yet resolved. And once we do reach stabilization, the once-fat profit margins will be razor-thin. Not an economic situation that fills an investor with confidence. As for FSLR, their sales will tell the tale. If they do come up with a technology that provides a significant price advantage to their competitors, and that technology can be protected, yes, they would have a moat. But they're currently locked in the same desperate struggle as their competitors--just look at their stock performance, plummeting from a high above $70/share, due to disappearing profits. That alone tells you they're not able to significantly differentiate themselves in the current marketplace. Maybe they will come up with that miracle breakthrough--or maybe one of their competitors will. There'll be plenty of time to "load the boat" when that happens. For now, though, I'd say it's too early to make that bet. Just my 2 cents' worth.... Pete
  7. The only yieldco dropping is PEGI. Lol I guess in sympathy to solar Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  8. Based on the 8k, it looks like the shareholder of GLBL will receive between 1.5 to 1.75 on top of the buyout offer from BAM. From seekingalpha - aventeren . " Okay, 75% of the B shares would be 75% * 61M shares = 46,007,290.5 shares. If there are currently 113,206,700 A shares, that means A shareholders would receive the equivalent of 46,007,290.5 shares / 113,206,700 shares = 0.406 shares. If the offer price were $4.15, then A shareholders would receive a 0.406 shares * $4.15/share = $1.6849/share; 0.406 shares * $4.25/share = $1.7255/share; 0.406 shares * $4.35/share = $1.7661/share; etc. So this "allocate 75% of B shares to A shareholders" clause would mean something like $1.68-ish to $1.80-ish in additional value for A shareholders. Is my math right? I'm just noodling here. "
  9. So with TERP common will get about that Brookfield will pay, but with GLBL they should get about 11% of 100 more -> 11/64=17% more than the offer, this could be some compensation for undelivered projects, which would be about $5/share. This should be the reason, why TERP is down and GLBL is up.
  10. From BK-Filing: SunEdison holds a total of 61,343,054 Class B shares of GLBL and 61,343,054 Class B units24 of Global LLC.25 SunEdison’s position represents 100% of the Class B shares of GLBL and Class B units of Global LLC outstanding.26 In the aggregate, SunEdison holds approximately 36% of the economic interests and 98% of the voting interests in GLBL, with the securities held indirectly through a subsidiary, SunEdison Holdings Corporation. As of the Petition Date, GLBL had 116,710,351 Class A shares outstanding, all of which are publicly tradable shares and represent approximately 64% of the economic interests of GLBL.
  11. from BK-Filing: SunEdison holds a total of 48,202,310 Class B shares of TERP and 48,202,310 Class B units19 of Power LLC.20 Pursuant to the limited liability company agreement of Power LLC, SunEdison is also entitled to certain incentive distribution rights (“IDRs”).21 SunEdison’s position represents 100% of the Class B shares of TERP and Class B units of Power LLC outstanding. In the aggregate, SunEdison holds approximately 35% of the economic interests and 84% of the voting interests in TERP, with the securities held indirectly through two SunEdison subsidiaries – SunEdison Holdings Corporation and SUNE ML 1, LLC. As of the Petition Date, TERP had 91,280,208 Class A shares outstanding, all of which are publicly tradable shares and represent approximately 65% of the economic interests of TERP
  12. Just sold GLBL at $4.40 - will use profits to sprinkle into other yieldcos who are already paying dividends. Still have TERP, waiting to see how that shakes out. I believe it is going down as the outright buyout offer was $11.50 and the exclusive deal means nothing larger coming from Tepper, etc.
  13. Does anyone of you know how many class A and B shares of TERP and GLBL SUNEQ hold?
  14. Can someone explain this I see TERP dropping hard Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  15. With TERP it's the same, but there they would receive 36,9%.
  16. I like how action is taking place with Terraforms, since not a lot of individuals are connected to yieldcos, industry buyers are the best option to reduce choice. I am hoping for Q2 to produce really nice action Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  17. What is interesting for me is not only the price, but also the details of the settlement between SUNEQ and GLBL. As SUNEQ would receive 25% of the total price, and the rest would be distributed to common shareholders. How many shares do they have more than 25%?
  18. Exclusive to brookfield it means just some details to solve. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  19. There seem to be a price detail for GLBL, s I assume price for TERP is the same, sounds like they would take GLBL of the market l, or they are ready to, TERP would be sponsored. Did I get it? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  20. GLBL and Brookfield -- agree to negotiate exclusively on several proposed buyout/sponsor scenarios. Stock soared briefly pre-market, but settled quickly.
  21. The reason manufacturers are strong is likely not related to near-term outlook. Maybe due to reduced uncertainty about the outlook (good or bad) but primarily in combination with the discount to when they traded in the 30's being juicy and maybe uncertainty about how long such juicy discount can sustain as we each day get closer to a recovery even though it is not here yet we might at least have approached a stabilization point.
  22. Last week
  23. If we look at the year in earnings, we have a threshold of 15% to 17% in gross margin, which can effectively stop profits. FSLR and SPWR already announced massive losses, SPWR extending them to 2018. Assuming Trina is gone and with JASO having nothing to show, only two companies can make the difference in this perception. I see Canadian make a lot of announcements beating JKS in expansions to Latin America and propose projects in Alberta, but their GM will be weak, based on recent calculations. I think there is no point to congregate around manufacturers. Although I am surprised how strong they are, I see solar stocks to sell still. We need some info and yearly announcements from them. Then we can expect market's reaction. PEGI, unfortunately, is sensitive to feelings around the industry. Still, I hope they will look better if controls are back and the dividend is raised. I am adding PEGI with the dividend to continue to average.
  24. This is a solarzoom article that is along the lines of the digitaljournal article. http://www.solarzoom.com/article-94552-1.html
  25. This summary provides me with an opinion how shutting coal production may only allow for more existing renewable energy sources join the grid and not to remain underutilized. Jinko's plants were about 10 to 20% underutilized on average. Things are not as clear http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/china-s-monstrous-wind-and-solar-projects-most-of-it-is-wasted/article/484006
  26. What does this do for the ASP? China is a catchall for domestic manufacturing. 100GW currently is available. If the margins are small, it has no benefit for any of the companies. ASPs will not come back. It may stabilize but will not go up. The only win is to lower costs. However as discussed elsewhere the forecast to drop 4 cents from 29 to 25, has a three-years' timeline. The mechanism for ASP is not in control of companies. While they will not sell to lose, they will sell to force others off the market. The chances are that for next three years companies will have 5 to 15% margins, perhaps except Jinko, this spells low to no earnings. Canadian can collect on plant sales, lower debt levels. It may receive a lot of value from Japan, where I see projects to be sold to yieldco.
  27. Anyway if I look at the yieldco space opportunities vs manufacturers PEGI seems to be the one that is lagging and thus still a good transition candidate. If I would diversify into yieldcos now it would likely be a mix of PEGI and TERP, but I'm not quite there yet.
  28. The perception of yieldco is that their debt is cheaper than projects, since the risk of development versus the already operating facility. However, there are other investors involved, and perhaps due to tax equity, they need equity in the project to deliver the sale. It is hard to tell for me. Their debt to equity with the Friday's bond went over the ratio of 1. In the comparison to NYLD and NEP, they have a lot of room to borrow, as those two have a 2.4 ratio. Still, their plan is basically to avoid revolver, which will come back to around $475M or something of that nature. Between two projects Armow and Broadview, some $40M of CAFD is expected. I would probably think it is more of $35M. That is 20% more than 2016 result. It could warrant 20% growth of dividend in 10% volume per year. In considering my next action to buy CSIQ or to buy PEGI to average down, I made an observation of their equity losing 13% of value due to material controls issue announced in November. If this is addressed, it is required and should be addressed, and if they grow the dividend by 10%, the stock could easily get 20 to 25% in equity back from the current price, to $24.60- $24.70. At that point, new equity could be issued, and produce more expansions with high debt ratios.
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